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SK Beveren v Habay-la-Neuve

SK Beveren
3–0Full time
Habay-la-Neuve

Cup · FRI 16 OCT

Full timeGraded 16 Oct 22:01
SK Beveren 3–0 Habay-la-Neuve SK BEVEREN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said SK Beveren win85%
The market said83%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.036
The market’s Brier score0.044

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 11 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said SK Beveren win at 85%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: SK Beveren was 85% before kick-off and our model makes it 85% now. 0–0 · 85–11–4
  3. 1′KICK-OFF SK Beveren v Habay-la-Neuve
  4. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' SK Beveren win: 85% at kick-off, 75% now
  5. 35′We said SK Beveren at 85%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 73%. 0–0 · 73–21–6
  6. 39′A goal for SK Beveren on 38′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 94–5–1
  7. 39′⚽ GOAL · 38' SK Beveren 1–0 Habay-la-Neuve
  8. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 39' SK Beveren win: 85% at kick-off, 94% now
  9. 45′HALF-TIME SK Beveren 1–0 Habay-la-Neuve
  10. 46′SECOND HALF SK Beveren 1–0 Habay-la-Neuve
  11. 50′SK Beveren score on 50′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  12. 50′⚽ GOAL · 50' SK Beveren 2–0 Habay-la-Neuve
  13. 50′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 50' SK Beveren win: 85% at kick-off, 99% now
  14. 51′We published SK Beveren at 85%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  15. 52′Goals are coming at about the 3.4 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  16. 63′We published SK Beveren at 85%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  17. 89′🟨 YELLOW · 89' SK Beveren
  18. 93′SK Beveren find the net on 90′. 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
  19. 93′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' SK Beveren 3–0 Habay-la-Neuve
  20. FTFULL TIME SK Beveren 3–0 Habay-la-Neuve
  21. FTSK Beveren 3–0 Habay-la-Neuve · SK Beveren win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

SK Beveren are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: SK Beveren 85%, draw 11%, Habay-la-Neuve 4%. Over 2.5 goals 66%, both teams to score 39%.

The AI’s read on SK Beveren v Habay-la-NeuveBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 10 Oct 03:49 · locked at kick-off

SK Beveren win85%
Draw11%
Habay-la-Neuve win4%

Kick-offFRI 16 OCT · 19:30

RoundRound of 32

Line-ups

SK Beveren

Habay-la-Neuve

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

SK Beveren

Habay-la-Neuve

7Days since last match5

Last match: 9 Oct · Jupiler Pro League

Last match: 11 Oct · First Amateur Division

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

SK Beveren

Formation not confirmed

84 J. Lusamba

25 C. Konate

31 B. Godeau

48 J. Robatsch

4 C. Janssens

18 S. Dewaele

44 C. Conde

8 F. Slegers

22 C. Bruls

24 A. Verschueren

9 E. Kabore

Coach · Tim Bakens

Substitutes

16 · M. Deman

2 · D. Thompson

3 · V. Boone

7 · I. Najim

10 · G. De Schryver

11 · J. Diouf

17 · J. Margaritha

33 · V. Olatunji

92 · L. Mertens

Habay-la-Neuve

Formation not confirmed

40 A. Zimmermann

4 H. Lamock

7 Y. Azouazi

8 F. Reyter

17 E. Gasparoto

19 Lucca Ayala

20 K. Ngoumou

21 D. Lempereur

27 L. Besson

28 R. Pinto Da Costa

29 L. Geneve

Coach · S. Petit

Substitutes

– · L. Bankwe

– · R. Oller

24 · V. Trento

33 · A. Idha

– · N. Rooms

– · L. Lamotte

22 · J. Fanoux

– · A. Sbaa

6 · H. Vialette

– · M. Vandaele

5 · S. Poncelet

Our number · sk beveren winFirst published 10 Oct 03:49 · updated 16 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off
85% The market83%
Us85%
Market83%

We make SK Beveren an 85% chance to win. The market has them at 83%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.9–0.5.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · SK Beveren v Habay-la-Neuve2.89 – 0.53
The market · SK Beveren win83% · ours 85%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
75%80%85%90% 10 OCT 04:0216 OCT 19:16
Our probability · SK Beveren win The market, margin stripped

Published at 84%, 85% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 83% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
SK Beveren win85%83%+2
Draw11%11%0
Habay-la-Neuve win4%5%−1
Over 2.5 goals66%72%−6
Both teams to score39%47%−8
Over 1.5 goals86%88%−2
Over 3.5 goals45%54%−9
SK Beveren or draw96%95%+1
SK Beveren clean sheet59%––
Habay-la-Neuve clean sheet6%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 13.7%
0123450 3.4 1 9.3 5.2 2 13.7 7.2 3 13.2 7.0 4 9.5 5.0 5 5.5 2.9
under 2% 5% 12%+SK Beveren down, Habay-la-Neuve across0–5 goals a side shown (92.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 26 Sept

SK BEVEREN

No matches in our record yet.

HABAY-LA-NEUVE

D1–1