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Model 1.2

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Rochefort v Gent

Rochefort
3–3After penalties
Gent

Cup · SUN 18 OCT

After 90 minutesGraded 18 Oct 15:23
Rochefort 3–3 Gent GENT WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · RIGHT0–3 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Gent win87%
The market said88%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.591
The market’s Brier score1.616

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 3–3, the score after 90 minutes. Rochefort won 4–3 on penalties.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay32 notes · 29 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Gent win at 87%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Gent 87% before kick-off, 87% now. 0–0 · 4–9–87
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Rochefort v Gent
  4. 20′Rochefort find the net on 19′. 1–0. 1–0 · 18–22–60
  5. 20′We said Gent at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 60%. 1–0 · 18–22–60
  6. 20′⚽ GOAL · 19' Rochefort 1–0 Gent
  7. 20′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 20' Gent win: 87% at kick-off, 60% now
  8. 22′We said Gent at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 1–0 · 18–22–59
  9. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 25' Gent win: 87% at kick-off, 57% now
  10. 29′We said Gent at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 1–0 · 21–25–54
  11. 30′The goal count is tracking the 3.8 we expected. 1–0 · 21–25–54
  12. 36′We said Gent at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 1–0 · 24–27–49
  13. 38′A goal for Gent on 38′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 6–19–75
  14. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 38' Gent win: 87% at kick-off, 47% now
  15. 38′⚽ GOAL · 38' Rochefort 1–1 Gent
  16. 38′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 38' Gent win: 87% at kick-off, 75% now
  17. 39′We said Gent at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 74%. 1–1 · 6–20–74
  18. 45′HALF-TIME Rochefort 1–1 Gent
  19. 45′SECOND HALF Rochefort 1–1 Gent
  20. 48′We said Gent at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 69%. 1–1 · 6–25–69
  21. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Gent win: 87% at kick-off, 67% now
  22. 53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Gent
  23. 60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Rochefort 1–2 Gent
  24. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 60' Gent win: 87% at kick-off, 93% now
  25. 61′Gent score on 60′ to make it 1–2. 1–2 · 1–6–93
  26. 61′Gent find the net on 61′. 1–2 · 1–6–93
  27. 62′We said Gent at 87% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 1–3 · 0–1–99
  28. 62′⚽ GOAL · 61' Rochefort 1–3 Gent
  29. 62′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 62' Gent win: 87% at kick-off, 99% now
  30. 63′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–1–99
  31. 64′A goal for Rochefort on 64′ — 2–3. 2–3 · 1–6–93
  32. 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' Rochefort 2–3 Gent
  33. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Gent win: 87% at kick-off, 93% now
  34. 65′5 goals already, more than the 3.8 we expected for the whole match. 2–3 · 1–6–93
  35. 67′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Gent
  36. 70′Rochefort find the net on 70′. 2–3 · 0–6–94
  37. 70′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.8 across ninety minutes. 3–3 · 6–47–47
  38. 70′⚽ GOAL · 70' Rochefort 3–3 Gent
  39. 70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Gent win: 87% at kick-off, 47% now
  40. 72′We said Gent at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 3–3 · 6–50–44
  41. 72′THE CALL SWINGS · 72' Draw is now our likeliest result at 50% (was Gent win 44%)
  42. 74′🟨 YELLOW · 73' Rochefort
  43. 75′We said Gent at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 3–3 · 6–56–39
  44. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' Rochefort
  45. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 75' Gent
  46. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Gent win: 87% at kick-off, 37% now
  47. 78′We said Gent at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 33%. 3–3 · 5–62–33
  48. 80′We said Gent at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 3–3 · 4–67–29
  49. 81′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 81' Gent win: 87% at kick-off, 26% now
  50. 82′We said Gent at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 3–3 · 4–72–24
  51. 84′We said Gent at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 3–3 · 3–78–19
  52. 85′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 85' Gent win: 87% at kick-off, 17% now
  53. 88′We said Gent at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 3–3 · 2–85–13
  54. 90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes Gent likeliest at 59%. 3–3 · 7–34–59
  55. 91′We said Gent at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 8%. 3–3 · 1–90–8
  56. 92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+2' Gent win: 87% at kick-off, 7% now
  57. 94′We said Gent at 87%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 3–3 · 1–96–4
  58. 95′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes Gent likeliest at 54%. 3–3 · 7–40–54
  59. 105′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 56%. 3–3 · 6–56–39
  60. 120′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. The shoot-out decides who goes through - our model does not price it. 3–3 · 0–100–0
  61. 144′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 96%. 3–3 · 1–96–4
  62. FTFULL TIME Rochefort 3–3 Gent
  63. FTRochefort 3–3 Gent after 90 minutes, as graded · Gent win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: right · 0–3 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Gent are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Rochefort 4%, draw 9%, Gent 87%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Rochefort v GentBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Rochefort win4%
Draw9%
Gent win87%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Rochefort

Gent

8Days since last match3

Last match: 10 Oct · First Amateur Division

Last match: 15 Oct · UEFA Europa Conference League

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · gent winFirst published 12 Oct 03:54 · updated 18 Oct 00:23 · locked at kick-off
87% The market88%
Us87%
Market88%

We make Gent an 87% chance to win. The market has them at 88%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.6–3.2.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Rochefort v Gent0.59 – 3.24
The market · Gent win88% · ours 87%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
85%90% 12 OCT 04:0818 OCT 12:20
Our probability · Gent win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 88% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Rochefort win4%3%+1
Draw9%9%0
Gent win87%88%−1
Over 2.5 goals74%75%−1
Both teams to score43%38%+5
Over 1.5 goals90%90%0
Over 3.5 goals53%58%−5
Rochefort or draw13%12%+1
Rochefort clean sheet4%––
Gent clean sheet55%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–3 at 12.3%
0123450 2.3 6.9 11.4 12.3 10.0 6.51 4.3 6.7 7.3 5.9 3.82 2.1 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Rochefort down, Gent across0–5 goals a side shown (89.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021/22
Goals a meeting7.00
Over 2.51 of 1
Both scored0 of 1
Last meetingsGEN 7–0 ROC

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 27 Sept

ROCHEFORT

W3–2

GENT

No matches in our record yet.