Install the appInstall the appPitchside Lab · free · no ads
Pitchside Lab
Model 1.2

Home › Football › Cup › RAAL La Louvière v Liège

Back
Belgium flag

RAAL La Louvière v Liège

RAAL La Louvière
4–0Full time
Liège

Cup · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:31
RAAL La Louvière 4–0 Liège RAAL LA LOUVIÈRE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said RAAL La Louvière win64%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.193
The market’s Brier score0.316

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 13 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said RAAL La Louvière win at 64%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: RAAL La Louvière was 64% before kick-off and our model makes it 64% now. 0–0 · 64–21–15
  3. 1′KICK-OFF RAAL La Louvière v Liège
  4. 31′We published RAAL La Louvière at 64%. Our model now makes it 84%. 1–0 · 84–12–4
  5. 31′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 84–12–4
  6. 31′⚽ GOAL · 31' RAAL La Louvière 1–0 Liège
  7. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 31' RAAL La Louvière win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
  8. 33′A goal for RAAL La Louvière on 32′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–12–4
  9. 36′We published RAAL La Louvière at 64%. Our model now makes it 97%. 2–0 · 97–3–1
  10. 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' RAAL La Louvière 2–0 Liège
  11. 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' RAAL La Louvière win: 64% at kick-off, 97% now
  12. 37′A goal for RAAL La Louvière on 37′. 1–0 · 84–12–3
  13. 37′GOAL DISALLOWED · 37' RAAL La Louvière
  14. 37′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 37' RAAL La Louvière win: 64% at kick-off, 84% now
  15. 42′We published RAAL La Louvière at 64%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–12–3
  16. 45′SECOND HALF RAAL La Louvière 1–0 Liège
  17. 46′Z. Gruber scores for RAAL La Louvière on 31′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 85–12–3
  18. 46′HALF-TIME RAAL La Louvière 1–0 Liège
  19. 52′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Liège
  20. 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' RAAL La Louvière 2–0 Liège
  21. 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' RAAL La Louvière win: 64% at kick-off, 98% now
  22. 62′RAAL La Louvière score on 62′ to make it 2–0. 2–0 · 98–2–0
  23. FTFULL TIME RAAL La Louvière 4–0 Liège
  24. FTRAAL La Louvière 4–0 Liège · RAAL La Louvière win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

RAAL La Louvière are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: RAAL La Louvière 64%, draw 21%, Liège 15%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on RAAL La Louvière v LiègeBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

RAAL La Louvière win64%
Draw21%
Liège win15%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:45

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

RAAL La Louvière

Liège

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Jupiler Pro League

Last match: 10 Oct · Challenger Pro League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · raal la louvière winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off
64% The market54%
Us64%
Market54%

We make RAAL La Louvière a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · RAAL La Louvière v Liège2.04 – 0.86
The market · RAAL La Louvière win54% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
50%55%60%65%70% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 19:34
Our probability · RAAL La Louvière win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
RAAL La Louvière win64%54%+10
Draw21%24%−3
Liège win15%22%−7
Over 2.5 goals55%58%−3
Both teams to score51%59%−8
Over 1.5 goals79%79%0
Over 3.5 goals33%38%−5
RAAL La Louvière or draw85%78%+7
RAAL La Louvière clean sheet42%––
Liège clean sheet13%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 11.4%
0123450 5.8 4.4 2.0 1 10.9 10.0 4.2 2 11.4 9.9 4.3 3 7.8 6.7 2.9 4 3.9 3.4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+RAAL La Louvière down, Liège across0–5 goals a side shown (98.2% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021/22
Goals a meeting2.60
Over 2.52 of 5
Both scored2 of 5
Last meetingsLIE 1–1 RAA · RAA 3–1 LIE · RAA 2–0 LIE · RAA 0–3 LIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 27 Sept

RAAL LA LOUVIÈRE

No matches in our record yet.

LIÈGE

W4–1