OH Leuven v Francs Borains
OH LeuvenFrancs BorainsCup · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said OH Leuven win at 71%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: OH Leuven 71% before kick-off, 70% now. 0–0 · 70–20–10
- 1′KICK-OFF OH Leuven v Francs Borains
- 29′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 29' OH Leuven win: 71% at kick-off, 61% now
- 33′We said OH Leuven at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–30–11
- 43′We said OH Leuven at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–35–11
- 45′HALF-TIME OH Leuven 0–0 Francs Borains
- 47′SECOND HALF OH Leuven 0–0 Francs Borains
- 48′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 48' OH Leuven win: 71% at kick-off, 51% now
- 50′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Francs Borains
- 51′We said OH Leuven at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–40–11
- 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.6 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 47–43–10
- 58′We said OH Leuven at 71%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–46–10
- 60′THE CALL SWINGS · 60' Draw is now our likeliest result at 48% (was OH Leuven win 42%)
- 61′OH Leuven find the net on 61′. 1–0. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 61′⚽ GOAL · 61' OH Leuven 1–0 Francs Borains
- 61′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 61' OH Leuven win: 71% at kick-off, 90% now
- 61′THE CALL SWINGS · 61' OH Leuven win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 9%)
- 62′We said OH Leuven at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' OH Leuven win: 71% at kick-off, 91% now
- 64′OH Leuven are down to ten from 63′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 91–9–1
- 64′🟥 RED CARD · 63' OH Leuven
- 71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' OH Leuven · On: S. Schrijvers · Off: S. Murru
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' OH Leuven · On: W. George · Off: L. Lakomy
- 72′SUBSTITUTION · 69' OH Leuven · On: W. Balikwisha · Off: E. Addai
- 80′We said OH Leuven at 71% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- 85′🟨 YELLOW · 85' Francs Borains
- 89′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Francs Borains
- 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Francs Borains
- 91′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' OH Leuven
- 93′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Francs Borains
- 97′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Francs Borains
- FTFULL TIME OH Leuven 1–0 Francs Borains
- FTOH Leuven 1–0 Francs Borains · OH Leuven win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassOH Leuven are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: OH Leuven 71%, draw 20%, Francs Borains 10%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 39%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
OH Leuven win71%Francs Borains win10%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:30
RoundRound of 32
Match timeline
All events
OH LeuvenMINFrancs BorainsEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
OH Leuven
Francs Borains
Last match: 11 Oct · Jupiler Pro League
Last match: 10 Oct · Challenger Pro League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make OH Leuven a 71% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.0–0.6.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 69%, 71% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| OH Leuven win | 71% | 61% | +10 |
| Draw | 20% | 22% | −2 |
| Francs Borains win | 10% | 17% | −7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 48% | 56% | −8 |
| Both teams to score | 39% | 54% | −15 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 74% | 78% | −4 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 27% | 36% | −9 |
| OH Leuven or draw | 90% | 83% | +7 |
| OH Leuven clean sheet | 55% | – | – |
| Francs Borains clean sheet | 13% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
1 meeting since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Cup this season · since 26 Sept
OH LEUVEN
No matches in our record yet.
FRANCS BORAINS