KV Mechelen v AS Eupen
KV MechelenAS EupenCup · SUN 18 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said KV Mechelen win at 67%.
- 1′Much as we predicted: KV Mechelen was 67% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 66–20–13
- 1′KICK-OFF KV Mechelen v AS Eupen
- 5′AS Eupen score on 5′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 41–25–35
- 5′We said KV Mechelen at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 41%. 0–1 · 41–25–35
- 5′⚽ GOAL · 5' KV Mechelen 0–1 AS Eupen
- 5′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 5' KV Mechelen win: 67% at kick-off, 41% now
- 8′We said KV Mechelen at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 39%. 0–1 · 39–25–35
- 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' KV Mechelen win: 67% at kick-off, 37% now
- 19′🟨 YELLOW · 19' AS Eupen
- 20′We said KV Mechelen at 67%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 34%. 0–1 · 34–27–39
- 20′THE CALL SWINGS · 20' AS Eupen win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was KV Mechelen win 34%)
- 23′🟨 YELLOW · 22' KV Mechelen
- 26′KV Mechelen find the net on 26′. 1–1. 1–1 · 59–27–14
- 26′⚽ GOAL · 26' KV Mechelen 1–1 AS Eupen
- 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' KV Mechelen win: 67% at kick-off, 59% now
- 26′THE CALL SWINGS · 26' KV Mechelen win is now our likeliest result at 59% (was AS Eupen win 14%)
- 31′🟨 YELLOW · 31' AS Eupen
- 36′A goal for KV Mechelen on 36′ — 2–1. 2–1 · 86–11–3
- 36′We published KV Mechelen at 67%. Our model now makes it 86%. 2–1 · 86–11–3
- 36′⚽ GOAL · 36' KV Mechelen 2–1 AS Eupen
- 36′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 36' KV Mechelen win: 67% at kick-off, 86% now
- 37′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 86–11–3
- 45′HALF-TIME KV Mechelen 2–1 AS Eupen
- 46′SECOND HALF KV Mechelen 2–1 AS Eupen
- 47′KV Mechelen score on 46′ to make it 3–1. 3–1 · 98–2–0
- 47′We published KV Mechelen at 67%. Our model now makes it 98%. 3–1 · 98–2–0
- 47′4 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 98–2–0
- 47′⚽ GOAL · 46' KV Mechelen 3–1 AS Eupen
- 47′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 47' KV Mechelen win: 67% at kick-off, 98% now
- 48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' AS Eupen
- 49′KV Mechelen find the net on 49′. 4–1. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 49′We published KV Mechelen at 67%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 49′⚽ GOAL · 49' KV Mechelen 4–1 AS Eupen
- 50′That is 5, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 4–1 · 100–0–0
- 61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' KV Mechelen
- 64′A goal for KV Mechelen on 64′ — 5–1. 5–1 · 100–0–0
- 64′6 goals already, more than the 2.9 we expected for the whole match. 5–1 · 100–0–0
- 64′⚽ GOAL · 64' KV Mechelen 5–1 AS Eupen
- FTFULL TIME KV Mechelen 5–1 AS Eupen
- FTKV Mechelen 5–1 AS Eupen · KV Mechelen win: right · Over 2.5: right · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 2–0 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
KV Mechelen are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: KV Mechelen 67%, draw 20%, AS Eupen 13%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 49%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 12 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
KV Mechelen win67%AS Eupen win13%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 12:30
RoundRound of 32
Match timeline
All events
KV MechelenMINAS EupenEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
KV Mechelen
AS Eupen
Last match: 11 Oct · Jupiler Pro League
Last match: 9 Oct · Challenger Pro League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make KV Mechelen a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 55%. We are 12 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.1–0.8.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 66%, 67% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 55% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| KV Mechelen win | 67% | 55% | +12 |
| Draw | 20% | 23% | −3 |
| AS Eupen win | 13% | 23% | −10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 55% | 60% | −5 |
| Both teams to score | 49% | 60% | −11 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 79% | 81% | −2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 33% | 39% | −6 |
| KV Mechelen or draw | 87% | 77% | +10 |
| KV Mechelen clean sheet | 45% | – | – |
| AS Eupen clean sheet | 12% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
7 meetings since 2021/22Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Cup this season · since 27 Sept
KV MECHELEN
No matches in our record yet.
AS EUPEN