Heist v Antwerp
HeistAntwerpCup · SAT 17 OCT
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Antwerp win at 83%.
- 1′Little has changed for our model: Antwerp 83% before kick-off, 83% now. 0–0 · 6–11–83
- 1′KICK-OFF Heist v Antwerp
- 4′A goal for Antwerp on 4′. 0–0 · 6–12–82
- 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Antwerp win: 83% at kick-off, 73% now
- 37′We said Antwerp at 83%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 71%. 0–0 · 8–20–71
- 41′We said Antwerp at 83%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 69%. 0–0 · 8–22–69
- 45′HALF-TIME Heist 0–0 Antwerp
- 45′SECOND HALF Heist 0–0 Antwerp
- 50′We said Antwerp at 83%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 64%. 0–0 · 9–27–64
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 51' Antwerp win: 83% at kick-off, 63% now
- 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.9 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 9–31–60
- 55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Antwerp · On: S. Porozo · Off: M. Frey
- 55′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Antwerp · On: C. Mejia · Off: X. Dierckx
- 56′We said Antwerp at 83%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 9–32–59
- 62′We said Antwerp at 83%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 9–37–54
- 62′🟨 YELLOW · 62' Heist
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 63' Antwerp win: 83% at kick-off, 53% now
- 63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Heist 0–1 Antwerp
- 63′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 63' Antwerp win: 83% at kick-off, 91% now
- 65′A goal for Antwerp on 64′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 1–8–91
- 73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Antwerp
- 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 75' Antwerp win: 83% at kick-off, 93% now
- 76′🟨 YELLOW · 76' Heist
- 80′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Heist
- 81′We said Antwerp at 83% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
- 83′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Heist
- 85′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Heist
- 94′0–1 at the end. Our 83% on Antwerp comes in. 0–1 · 0–0–100
- 94′🟨 YELLOW · 90+4' Antwerp
- FTFULL TIME Heist 0–1 Antwerp
- FTHeist 0–1 Antwerp · Antwerp win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 0–3 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassAntwerp are clear favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Heist 6%, draw 11%, Antwerp 83%. Over 2.5 goals 75%, both teams to score 51%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Heist win6%Antwerp win83%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:30
RoundRound of 32
Match timeline
All events
HeistMINAntwerpEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Heist
Antwerp
Last match: 11 Oct · First Amateur Division
Last match: 11 Oct · Jupiler Pro League
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.
We make Antwerp an 83% chance to win. The market has them at 73%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–3.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 73% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Heist win | 6% | 10% | −4 |
| Draw | 11% | 17% | −6 |
| Antwerp win | 83% | 73% | +10 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 75% | 64% | +11 |
| Both teams to score | 51% | 51% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 90% | 83% | +7 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 54% | 44% | +10 |
| Heist or draw | 17% | 27% | −10 |
| Heist clean sheet | 4% | – | – |
| Antwerp clean sheet | 47% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
No meetings since 2021/22No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.
Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · Cup this season · since 26 Sept
HEIST
ANTWERP
No matches in our record yet.