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Model 1.2

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Excelsior Virton v Genk

Excelsior Virton
0–2Full time
Genk

Cup · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:31
Excelsior Virton 0–2 Genk GENK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTOVER 3.5 · WRONG0–3 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Genk win83%
The market said62%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.046
The market’s Brier score0.223

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 8 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Genk win at 83%.
  2. 1′Much as we predicted: Genk was 83% before kick-off and our model makes it 82% now. 0–0 · 6–12–82
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Excelsior Virton v Genk
  4. 17′⚽ GOAL · 17' Excelsior Virton 0–1 Genk
  5. 17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Genk win: 83% at kick-off, 93% now
  6. 18′A goal for Genk on 18′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 2–5–93
  7. 28′We published Genk at 83%. Our model now makes it 98%. 0–2 · 0–1–98
  8. 28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Excelsior Virton 0–2 Genk
  9. 29′Genk score on 29′ to make it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–98
  10. 33′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Excelsior Virton
  11. 38′Goals are coming at about the 3.9 we expected. 0–2 · 0–1–98
  12. 45′SECOND HALF Excelsior Virton 0–2 Genk
  13. 46′28′: R. Durosinmi on the scoresheet for Genk, making it 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
  14. 47′HALF-TIME Excelsior Virton 0–2 Genk
  15. FTFULL TIME Excelsior Virton 0–2 Genk
  16. FTExcelsior Virton 0–2 Genk · Genk win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Over 3.5: wrong · 0–3 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Genk are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Excelsior Virton 6%, draw 11%, Genk 83%. Over 2.5 goals 74%, both teams to score 51%.

The AI’s read on Excelsior Virton v GenkBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Excelsior Virton win6%
Draw11%
Genk win83%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:45

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Excelsior Virton

Genk

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · Challenger Pro League

Last match: 10 Oct · Jupiler Pro League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · genk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 17 Oct 05:31 · locked at kick-off
83% The market62%
Us83%
Market62%

We make Genk an 83% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 21 points more confident than the market. The model expects 0.8–3.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Excelsior Virton v Genk0.77 – 3.09
The market · Genk win62% · ours 83%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
60%70%80%90% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 19:34
Our probability · Genk win The market, margin stripped

Published at 78%, 83% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 62% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Excelsior Virton win6%16%−10
Draw11%22%−11
Genk win83%62%+21
Over 2.5 goals74%59%+15
Both teams to score51%55%−4
Over 1.5 goals90%80%+10
Over 3.5 goals54%39%+15
Excelsior Virton or draw17%38%−21
Excelsior Virton clean sheet5%––
Genk clean sheet46%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 6 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–3 at 10.4%
0123450 2.3 6.4 10.1 10.4 8.0 4.91 5.2 7.7 8.0 6.2 3.82 3.0 3.1 2.4 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Excelsior Virton down, Genk across0–5 goals a side shown (90.7% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 26 Sept

EXCELSIOR VIRTON

W3–0

GENK

No matches in our record yet.