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Model 1.2

Home › Football › Cup › Club Brugge KV v Lokeren-Temse

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Club Brugge KV v Lokeren-Temse

Club Brugge KV
1–0Full time
Lokeren-Temse

Cup · SAT 17 OCT

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 22:31
Club Brugge KV 1–0 Lokeren-Temse CLUB BRUGGE KV WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGOVER 3.5 · WRONG4–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Club Brugge KV win94%
The market said85%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.005
The market’s Brier score0.034

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 10 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Club Brugge KV win at 94%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Club Brugge KV 94% before kick-off, 94% now. 0–0 · 94–4–1
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Club Brugge KV v Lokeren-Temse
  4. 35′🟨 YELLOW · 35' Club Brugge KV
  5. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Club Brugge KV win: 94% at kick-off, 84% now
  6. 41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Club Brugge KV
  7. 45′We said Club Brugge KV at 94%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 81%. 0–0 · 81–15–4
  8. 45′Club Brugge KV score on 45′ to make it 1–0. 1–0 · 96–3–0
  9. 45′⚽ GOAL · 45+1' Club Brugge KV 1–0 Lokeren-Temse
  10. 45′HALF-TIME Club Brugge KV 1–0 Lokeren-Temse
  11. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Club Brugge KV win: 94% at kick-off, 96% now
  12. 45′SECOND HALF Club Brugge KV 1–0 Lokeren-Temse
  13. 68′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Club Brugge KV
  14. FTFULL TIME Club Brugge KV 1–0 Lokeren-Temse
  15. FTClub Brugge KV 1–0 Lokeren-Temse · Club Brugge KV win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Over 3.5: wrong · 4–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Club Brugge KV are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Club Brugge KV 94%, draw 4%, Lokeren-Temse 1%. Over 2.5 goals 87%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Club Brugge KV v Lokeren-TemseBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Club Brugge KV win94%
Draw4%
Lokeren-Temse win1%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 19:45

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Club Brugge KV

Lokeren-Temse

4Days since last match21

Last match: 13 Oct · UEFA Champions League

Last match: 26 Sept · the Belgian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · club brugge kv winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
94% The market85%
Us94%
Market85%

We make Club Brugge KV a 94% chance to win. The market has them at 85%. We are 9 points more confident than the market. The model expects 4.3–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Club Brugge KV v Lokeren-Temse4.34 – 0.57
The market · Club Brugge KV win85% · ours 94%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
80%85%90%95%100% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 19:34
Our probability · Club Brugge KV win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 85% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Club Brugge KV win94%85%+9
Draw4%10%−6
Lokeren-Temse win1%4%−3
Over 2.5 goals87%75%+12
Both teams to score43%44%−1
Over 1.5 goals96%87%+9
Over 3.5 goals72%58%+14
Club Brugge KV or draw99%96%+3
Club Brugge KV clean sheet57%––
Lokeren-Temse clean sheet1%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 4–0 at 10.9%
0123450 1 3.1 2 6.9 3.9 3 10.1 5.7 4 10.9 6.2 5 9.5 5.4
under 2% 5% 12%+Club Brugge KV down, Lokeren-Temse across0–5 goals a side shown (73.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 26 Sept

CLUB BRUGGE KV

No matches in our record yet.

LOKEREN-TEMSE

W5–0