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Model 1.2

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Albert Quévy-Mons v Charleroi

Albert Quévy-Mons
0–1After extra time
Charleroi

Cup · SAT 17 OCT

After 90 minutesGraded 17 Oct 19:40
Albert Quévy-Mons 0–0 Charleroi CHARLEROI WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Charleroi win64%
The market said78%
Brier score, this match · lower is better1.024
The market’s Brier score1.349

Every number we publish is for the 90 minutes, so this match is graded on 0–0, the score after 90 minutes. It finished 0–1 after extra time.

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 19 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Charleroi win at 64%.
  2. 1′Little has changed for our model: Charleroi 64% before kick-off, 64% now. 0–0 · 13–23–64
  3. 1′KICK-OFF Albert Quévy-Mons v Charleroi
  4. 31′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 31' Charleroi win: 64% at kick-off, 54% now
  5. 36′We said Charleroi at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 52%. 0–0 · 14–34–52
  6. 43′We said Charleroi at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 14–37–49
  7. 43′🟨 YELLOW · 43' Charleroi
  8. 45′HALF-TIME Albert Quévy-Mons 0–0 Charleroi
  9. 46′SECOND HALF Albert Quévy-Mons 0–0 Charleroi
  10. 52′We said Charleroi at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 13–43–44
  11. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 52' Charleroi win: 64% at kick-off, 44% now
  12. 55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 2.5 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 13–45–42
  13. 56′THE CALL SWINGS · 56' Draw is now our likeliest result at 46% (was Charleroi win 41%)
  14. 56′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Albert Quévy-Mons
  15. 59′We said Charleroi at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 39%. 0–0 · 12–49–39
  16. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Charleroi · On: F. Mbemba · Off: G. Nawata
  17. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Charleroi · On: P. Pflucke · Off: T. Rowe
  18. 65′We said Charleroi at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 0–0 · 11–55–34
  19. 65′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 65' Charleroi win: 64% at kick-off, 34% now
  20. 70′We said Charleroi at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 10–61–29
  21. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Charleroi · On: A. Colassin · Off: J. Romsaas
  22. 75′We said Charleroi at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 8–68–24
  23. 75′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 75' Charleroi win: 64% at kick-off, 24% now
  24. 80′We said Charleroi at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 0–0 · 6–77–17
  25. 82′We said Charleroi at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 5–81–14
  26. 82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Charleroi win: 64% at kick-off, 14% now
  27. 86′We said Charleroi at 64%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 3–87–9
  28. 90′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 50%. 0–0 · 12–50–38
  29. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Albert Quévy-Mons
  30. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+2' Charleroi
  31. 96′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes the draw likeliest at 56%. 0–0 · 11–56–33
  32. 103′Charleroi score on 102′ to make it 0–1. 0–1 · 1–8–91
  33. 103′The 90 minutes are over: our published call is settled on that score. For the result after extra time our model now makes Charleroi likeliest at 91%. 0–1 · 1–8–91
  34. 103′⚽ GOAL · 102' Albert Quévy-Mons 0–1 Charleroi
  35. 105′🟨 YELLOW · 105' Charleroi
  36. 130′102′: C. Keita on the scoresheet for Charleroi, making it 0–1. 0–1 · 0–1–99
  37. FTFULL TIME Albert Quévy-Mons 0–1 Charleroi after extra time
  38. FTAlbert Quévy-Mons 0–0 Charleroi after 90 minutes, as graded · Charleroi win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Charleroi are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Albert Quévy-Mons 13%, draw 23%, Charleroi 64%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 42%.

The AI’s read on Albert Quévy-Mons v CharleroiBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Albert Quévy-Mons win13%
Draw23%
Charleroi win64%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 16:30

RoundRound of 32

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Albert Quévy-Mons

Charleroi

6Days since last match6

Last match: 11 Oct · First Amateur Division

Last match: 11 Oct · Jupiler Pro League

3Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · charleroi winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 00:12 · locked at kick-off
64% The market78%
Us64%
Market78%

We make Charleroi a 64% chance to win. The market has them at 78%. We are 14 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.7–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Albert Quévy-Mons v Charleroi0.69 – 1.82
The market · Charleroi win78% · ours 64%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70%75%80% 11 OCT 04:0917 OCT 16:11
Our probability · Charleroi win The market, margin stripped

Published at 60%, 64% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 78% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Albert Quévy-Mons win13%8%+5
Draw23%14%+9
Charleroi win64%78%−14
Over 2.5 goals46%69%−23
Both teams to score42%51%−9
Over 1.5 goals72%85%−13
Over 3.5 goals24%50%−26
Albert Quévy-Mons or draw36%22%+14
Albert Quévy-Mons clean sheet16%––
Charleroi clean sheet50%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.5%
0123450 8.5 14.5 13.4 8.1 3.7 1 5.3 10.6 9.3 5.6 2.5 2 3.5 3.2 3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Albert Quévy-Mons down, Charleroi across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

No meetings since 2021/22

No meetings between these two in the competitions we cover since 2021/22.

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Cup this season · since 26 Sept

ALBERT QUÉVY-MONS

W4–0

CHARLEROI

No matches in our record yet.