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RSC Anderlecht II v AS Eupen

RSC Anderlecht II

0–2Full time

AS Eupen

Challenger Pro League · FRI 9 OCT · Lotto Park

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

RSC Anderlecht II 0–2 AS Eupen AS EUPEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said AS Eupen win~~46%

~~The market said~~49%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.450

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.383

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said AS Eupen win at 46%.
1′Little has changed for our model: AS Eupen 46% before kick-off, 45% now. 0–0 · 32–24–45
1′KICK-OFF RSC Anderlecht II v AS Eupen
33′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Mathias Fixelles · AS Eupen
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' AS Eupen · On: Sandro Vidigal · Off: Isaac Nuhu
45′SECOND HALF RSC Anderlecht II 0–0 AS Eupen
52′⚽ GOAL · 52' RSC Anderlecht II 0–1 AS Eupen
54′⚽ GOAL · 54' RSC Anderlecht II 0–1 AS Eupen · Igor Plastun
58′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Omar Sarr · RSC Anderlecht II
61′SUBSTITUTION · 62' RSC Anderlecht II · On: Mohamed Abdellaoui · Off: Omar Sarr
63′🟨 YELLOW · 63' Mohamed Abdellaoui · RSC Anderlecht II
66′PENALTY · 66' AS Eupen
66′PENALTY MISSED · 67' Ba-Muaka Simakala · AS Eupen
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' RSC Anderlecht II · On: Elyess Dao · Off: Check Koité
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' RSC Anderlecht II · On: Terry Chinecherem Van De Ven · Off: Gassimou Sylla Corrected
70′⚽ GOAL · 70' RSC Anderlecht II 0–2 AS Eupen · Ba-Muaka Simakala
70′⚽ GOAL · 71' RSC Anderlecht II 0–2 AS Eupen · Ba-Muaka Simakala
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' AS Eupen · On: Chris-Kévin Nadje · Off: Amadou Keita
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' AS Eupen · On: João Diogo Alves Rodrigues · Off: Ba-Muaka Simakala Corrected
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' RSC Anderlecht II · On: Ilyas Benktib · Off: Enzo sternal
80′SUBSTITUTION · 81' RSC Anderlecht II · On: Joël Kana-Katoto · Off: Alexander De Ridder Corrected
81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' AS Eupen · On: Bertan Çalışkan · Off: Logan Delaurier-Chaubet Corrected
83′🟨 YELLOW · 84' Nicolas Gavory · AS Eupen
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' AS Eupen · On: Theo Marechal · Off: Mark Müller
91′🟨 YELLOW · 89' Yentl Van Genechten · AS Eupen
91′🟨 YELLOW · 92' Thomas Foket · RSC Anderlecht II
FTFULL TIME RSC Anderlecht II 0–2 AS Eupen
FTRSC Anderlecht II 0–2 AS Eupen · AS Eupen win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

RSC Anderlecht II win32%

Draw22%

AS Eupen win46%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Lotto Park

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

RSC Anderlecht II

4-4-2

63 Timon Vanhoutte

25 Thomas Foket

71 Nunzio Engwanda

65 Ludovick Wola-Wetshay

72 Babatunde Akomolede

57 Gassimou Sylla

51 Omar Sarr

64 Alexander De Ridder

31 Check Koité

90 Pape Aliya N'dao

28 Enzo Sternal

Coach · K. Mokeddem

Substitutes

44 · Mohamed Abdellaoui

22 · Elyess Dao

76 · Terry Van De Ven

45 · Joël Kana

48 · Ilyas Benktib

86 · Lander Gijsbers

41 · Joel Matadi

46 · Kylian Liema Olinga

40 · Adjani Mujangi Bia

AS Eupen

4-1-4-1

24 Antoine Lejoly

2 Yentl Van Genechten

28 Rune Paeshuyse

32 Igor Plastun

5 Nicolas Gavory

70 Mathias Fixelles

22 Logan Delaurier-Chaubet

27 Mark Müller

18 Amadou Keita

7 Isaac Nuhu

11 Ba-Muaka Simakala

Coach · F. Mazzù

Substitutes

17 · Sandro Vidigal

10 · Chris-Kévin Nadje

98 · Kikas

19 · Bertan Caliskan

47 · Théo Maréchal

44 · Julian Renner

13 · Lorenzo Youndje

3 · Michael Precious

9 · Aron Sulejmani

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

RSC Anderlecht II

4-4-2

63 Timon Vanhoutte

25 Thomas Foket

71 Nunzio Engwanda

65 Ludovick Wola-Wetshay

72 Babatunde Akomolede

57 Gassimou Sylla

51 Omar Sarr

64 Alexander De Ridder

31 Check Koité

90 Pape Aliya N'dao

28 Enzo Sternal

Coach · K. Mokeddem

Substitutes

44 · Mohamed Abdellaoui

22 · Elyess Dao

76 · Terry Van De Ven

45 · Joël Kana

48 · Ilyas Benktib

86 · Lander Gijsbers

41 · Joel Matadi

46 · Kylian Liema Olinga

40 · Adjani Mujangi Bia

AS Eupen

4-1-4-1

24 Antoine Lejoly

2 Yentl Van Genechten

28 Rune Paeshuyse

32 Igor Plastun

5 Nicolas Gavory

70 Mathias Fixelles

22 Logan Delaurier-Chaubet

27 Mark Müller

18 Amadou Keita

7 Isaac Nuhu

11 Ba-Muaka Simakala

Coach · F. Mazzù

Substitutes

17 · Sandro Vidigal

10 · Chris-Kévin Nadje

98 · Kikas

19 · Bertan Caliskan

47 · Théo Maréchal

44 · Julian Renner

13 · Lorenzo Youndje

3 · Michael Precious

9 · Aron Sulejmani

Our number · as eupen winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

46% The market49%

Us46%

~~Market~~49%

We make AS Eupen a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 49%. We are 4 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · as eupen win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 50% to 49% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
RSC Anderlecht II win	32%	26%	+6
Draw	22%	24%	−2
AS Eupen win	46%	49%	−4
Over 2.5 goals	60%	64%	−4
Both teams to score	61%	65%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	81%	83%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	38%	43%	−6
RSC Anderlecht II or draw	54%	51%	+4
RSC Anderlecht II clean sheet	18%	–	–
AS Eupen clean sheet	25%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.1%

0123450 4.0 8.3 6.5 3.7 1 6.9 10.1 9.0 5.1 2.2 2 4.4 7.4 6.3 3.6 3 2.1 3.5 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+RSC Anderlecht II down, AS Eupen across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,093 Challenger Pro League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Challenger Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 2.50 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

RSC Anderlecht II at home: 1.17 scored, 2.33 conceded a game (last 6). AS Eupen away: 1.17 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.40 goals for RSC Anderlecht II, 1.71 for AS Eupen. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 18:31. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~RSC 0–1 ASE · ASE 1–0 RSC · ASE 2–2 RSC · RSC 2–2 ASE

Form · last six in Challenger Pro League

RSC ANDERLECHT II

LLLDLL1–2 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 2–6 · 2–3

AS EUPEN

LWLWWW1–2 · 4–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Beerschot VA	6	+8	15
2	Dender	6	+6	15
3	AS Eupen	5	+6	12
4	Francs Borains	5	+5	12
5	Excelsior Virton	5	+6	10
6	Lokeren-Temse	6	+2	10
7	Sporting Hasselt	6	−3	9
8	Club Brugge II	5	+1	8
9	KRC Genk II	6	−2	7
10	Liège	6	−3	5
11	KAA Gent II	5	−3	5
12	K. Lierse S.K.	5	−4	5
13	Patro Eisden	6	−5	3
14	Seraing United	6	−6	2
15	RSC Anderlecht II	6	−8	1