Patro Eisden v KRC Genk II prediction · Challenger Pro League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

Patro Eisden 1–0 KRC Genk II PATRO EISDEN WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Patro Eisden win~~57%

~~The market said~~56%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.272

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.294

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Patro Eisden win at 57%.
1′KICK-OFF Patro Eisden v KRC Genk II
3′Much as we predicted: Patro Eisden was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–22–22
6′Much as we predicted: Patro Eisden was 57% before kick-off and our model makes it 56% now. 0–0 · 56–22–22
15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Stef Peeters · Patro Eisden
31′SUBSTITUTION · 30' Patro Eisden · On: Zakaria Atteri · Off: Stef Peeters
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Patro Eisden win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Patro Eisden win: 57% at kick-off, 48% now
40′⚽ GOAL · 40' Patro Eisden 1–0 KRC Genk II
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Patro Eisden win: 57% at kick-off, 48% now
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Patro Eisden win: 57% at kick-off, 47% now
40′⚽ GOAL · 39' Patro Eisden 1–0 KRC Genk II · Seok-ju Hong
45′HALF-TIME Patro Eisden 1–0 KRC Genk II
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' KRC Genk II · On: Sami El Morabet · Off: Christian Akpan
46′SECOND HALF Patro Eisden 1–0 KRC Genk II
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Wout Kapers · KRC Genk II
65′PENALTY MISSED · 63' Kim Myung-jun · KRC Genk II
68′PENALTY MISSED · 68' Jonathan Coenen · KRC Genk II
69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' KRC Genk II · On: Jelle Driessen · Off: Kim Myung-jun
69′SUBSTITUTION · 69' KRC Genk II · On: Jens De Groof · Off: Kiyan Achahbar Corrected
73′🟨 YELLOW · 72' Radja Nainggolan · Patro Eisden
83′🟨 YELLOW · 82' Jonathan Coenen · KRC Genk II
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Patro Eisden · On: Jeremy Bokila · Off: Seok-ju Hong
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Patro Eisden · On: Isaias Delpupo · Off: Tsubasa Kasayanagi
86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' KRC Genk II · On: Loïc Alvarez Fernandez · Off: Wout Kapers
90′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Patro Eisden · On: Hasan Jahic · Off: Lars Dietz
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Elie Mbavu · KRC Genk II
90′🟥 RED CARD · 95' Djoully Nzoko · KRC Genk II
90′🟥 RED CARD · 97' Jonathan Coenen · KRC Genk II
FTFULL TIME Patro Eisden 1–0 KRC Genk II
FTPatro Eisden 1–0 KRC Genk II · Patro Eisden win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Patro Eisden win57%

Draw20%

KRC Genk II win22%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 15:00

VenuePatrostadion

Line-ups

Patro Eisden

4-1-4-1

KRC Genk II

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Patro Eisden

KRC Genk II

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
10	KRC Genk II	6	−2	7
13	Patro Eisden	6	−5	3

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Patro Eisden

4-1-4-1

1 J. Belin

22 H. Mnoga

2 L. Dietz

24 K. Borry

27 J. Munezero

33 L. Verstraete

20 R. Takaoka

4 R. Nainggolan

8 S. Peeters

10 T. Kasayanagi

7 Hong Seok-Ju

Coach · E. Ferrera

Substitutes

37 · K. Van Langendonck

77 · I. Delpupo

88 · J. Bokila

9 · Z. Atteri

5 · H. Jahić

34 · T. Loutfi

62 · A. Penin

70 · Ablie Saidiba

30 · Abdurrahman Burak Sayin

KRC Genk II

4-3-3

97 E. Doucouré

65 C. Akpan

73 E. Mbavu

34 A. Palacios

59 W. Kapers

24 N. Sattlberger

56 A. De Wannemacker

78 K. Achahbar

79 D. Nzoko

89 Kim Myeong-Jun

66 J. Coenen

Coach · I. de Camargo

Substitutes

61 · D. Van Laere

74 · Loïc Alvarez Fernandez

77 · J. De Groof

76 · J. Driessen

54 · S. El Morabet

63 · H. Zion

22 · Brad Ryan Manguelle

53 · M. Mocsnik

75 · P. Ogbeiwi

Our number · patro eisden winPublished 11 Oct 15:13

57% The market56%

Us57%

~~Market~~56%

We make Patro Eisden a 57% chance to win. The market has them at 56%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 2.0–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Patro Eisden win	57%	56%	+2
Draw	20%	23%	−3
KRC Genk II win	22%	21%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	61%	61%	+1
Both teams to score	59%	59%	−1
Over 1.5 goals	82%	81%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	39%	39%	0
Patro Eisden or draw	78%	79%	−1
Patro Eisden clean sheet	31%	–	–
KRC Genk II clean sheet	14%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–1 at 9.7%

0123450 3.7 5.4 2.9 1 8.9 9.2 5.7 2.2 2 8.4 9.7 5.6 2.2 3 5.7 6.5 3.8 4 2.9 3.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Patro Eisden down, KRC Genk II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,098 Challenger Pro League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Challenger Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 3.83 goals a meeting; 4 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Patro Eisden at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). KRC Genk II away: 1.83 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.02 goals for Patro Eisden, 1.17 for KRC Genk II. Most likely score 2–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 15:03. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.83

~~Over 2.5~~4 of 6

~~Both scored~~4 of 6

~~Last meetings~~PAT 4–4 KRC · KRC 1–4 PAT · PAT 1–0 KRC · KRC 1–3 PAT

Form · last six in Challenger Pro League

PATRO EISDEN

WLLLLL2–1 · 1–2 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–1

KRC GENK II

LLWWLD1–4 · 2–3 · 4–2 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Beerschot VA	7	+12	18
2	Dender	7	+9	18
3	AS Eupen	6	+8	15
4	Francs Borains	6	+2	12
5	Sporting Hasselt	7	−2	12
6	Excelsior Virton	6	+5	10
7	Lokeren-Temse	6	+2	10
8	K. Lierse S.K.	6	−1	8
9	Club Brugge II	6	−2	8
10	KRC Genk II	6	−2	7
11	KAA Gent II	5	−3	5
12	Liège	7	−7	5
13	Patro Eisden	6	−5	3
14	Seraing United	6	−6	2
15	RSC Anderlecht II	7	−10	1