Lokeren-Temse v KAA Gent II prediction · Challenger Pro League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 21:41

Lokeren-Temse 2–0 KAA Gent II LOKEREN-TEMSE WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Lokeren-Temse win~~47%

~~The market said~~63%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.419

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.205

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Lokeren-Temse win at 47%.
1′Much as we predicted: Lokeren-Temse was 47% before kick-off and our model makes it 47% now. 0–0 · 47–23–30
1′KICK-OFF Lokeren-Temse v KAA Gent II
24′Lokeren-Temse ahead on 23′ through Vancy Roméo Mabanza. 1–0. 1–0 · 71–19–10
24′⚽ GOAL · 23' Lokeren-Temse 1–0 KAA Gent II · Vancy Roméo Mabanza
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' Lokeren-Temse win: 47% at kick-off, 71% now
25′We published Lokeren-Temse at 47%. Our model now makes it 71%. 1–0 · 71–19–10
31′Goals are coming at about the 3.0 we expected. 1–0 · 72–19–9
39′🟨 YELLOW · 38' Maxime Pau · Lokeren-Temse
41′🟨 YELLOW · 41' Ali Donny · KAA Gent II
45′HALF-TIME Lokeren-Temse 1–0 KAA Gent II
46′SECOND HALF Lokeren-Temse 1–0 KAA Gent II
50′We published Lokeren-Temse at 47%. Our model now makes it 75%. 1–0 · 75–19–6
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Oleksandr Soroka · KAA Gent II
58′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 58' Lokeren-Temse win: 47% at kick-off, 77% now
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' KAA Gent II · On: Joachim Eniola Djamba-Shango · Off: Abubakar Abdullahi
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' KAA Gent II · On: Daniel James Wisdom · Off: Jemiah Umolu
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' KAA Gent II · On: Ahmed Yassin Mohammed Mohammed · Off: Trey Kongolo
63′SUBSTITUTION · 62' KAA Gent II · On: Abdul Aziz Ouedraogo · Off: Oleksandr Soroka
66′We published Lokeren-Temse at 47%. Our model now makes it 80%. 1–0 · 80–17–3
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Gyano Vanderdonck · KAA Gent II
72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Vancy Roméo Mabanza · Lokeren-Temse
75′We published Lokeren-Temse at 47%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–14–2
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Lokeren-Temse · On: Jassim Mazouz · Off: Maxime Pau
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Lokeren-Temse · On: A. Brrou · Off: Modeste Duku Mbenga
78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Lokeren-Temse win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
81′We published Lokeren-Temse at 47%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
81′PENALTY CANCELLED · 80' Lokeren-Temse
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' KAA Gent II · On: Loris Pirotte · Off: Rayan Garcia Belkacem
84′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Lokeren-Temse · On: Luan simnica · Off: Rune Van Den Bergh
88′We published Lokeren-Temse at 47%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Lokeren-Temse · On: Aboubacar Dindane · Off: Vancy Roméo Mabanza
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Lokeren-Temse · On: J. Aigboje · Off: Salim Ben Seghir
90′Matias Lloci scores for Lokeren-Temse on 89′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 100–0–0
90′⚽ GOAL · 89' Lokeren-Temse 2–0 KAA Gent II · Matias Lloci
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Lokeren-Temse win: 47% at kick-off, over 99% now
91′We published Lokeren-Temse at 47%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Lokeren-Temse 2–0 KAA Gent II
FTLokeren-Temse 2–0 KAA Gent II · Lokeren-Temse win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lokeren-Temse are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Lokeren-Temse 47%, draw 22%, KAA Gent II 30%. Over 2.5 goals 58%, both teams to score 59%.

The AI’s read on Lokeren-Temse v KAA Gent IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Lokeren-Temse win47%

Draw22%

KAA Gent II win30%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueDaknamstadion

Line-ups

Lokeren-Temse

4-2-3-1

KAA Gent II

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Lokeren-Temse

KAA Gent II

7Days since last match13

Last match: 17 Oct · the Belgian Cup

Last match: 11 Oct · Challenger Pro League

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
7	Lokeren-Temse	6	+2	10
10	KAA Gent II	6	−2	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Lokeren-Temse

4-2-3-1

56 S. Vervacke

19 M. Lloci

3 D. Doudaev

29 A. Spegelaere

16 Jordi Palacios

14 T. Janssen

27 R. Van Den Bergh

80 M. Duku

10 M. Pau

21 S. Ben Seghir

11 V. Mabanza

Coach · S. Vreven

Substitutes

25 · J. Arens

1 · J. Brondeel

9 · J. Aigboje

7 · A. Brrou

2 · R. Denuit

17 · A. Dindane

34 · J. Mazouz

8 · Luan Simnica

26 · J. Vervaque

KAA Gent II

4-2-3-1

31 B. Evers

76 Victor Vandenbroucke

74 T. Kongolo

55 Eric Simpore

85 Rayan Garcia Belkacem

28 M. El Âdfaoui

67 O. Soroka

63 J. Umolu

73 A. Donny

77 G. Vanderdonck

61 A. Abdullahi

Coach · Thomas Matton

Substitutes

51 · V. De Coninck

58 · J. Djamba Shango

64 · N. Laghmich

95 · Ahmed Yassin Mohammed Mohammed

80 · Abdul Ouedraogo

89 · L. Pirotte

97 · S. Toure

79 · R. Vydysh

82 · D. J. Wisdom

Our number · lokeren-temse winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

47% The market63%

Us47%

~~Market~~63%

We make Lokeren-Temse a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 63%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Lokeren-Temse v KAA Gent II~~1.71 – 1.31

~~Form · Challenger Pro League this season · since 14 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 10 v 8~~7 v 10

~~The market · Lokeren-Temse win~~63% · ours 47%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Lokeren-Temse win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 63% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Lokeren-Temse win	47%	63%	−16
Draw	22%	21%	+1
KAA Gent II win	30%	16%	+14
Over 2.5 goals	58%	64%	−6
Both teams to score	59%	59%	0
Over 1.5 goals	80%	83%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	36%	43%	−7
Lokeren-Temse or draw	70%	84%	−14
Lokeren-Temse clean sheet	27%	–	–
KAA Gent II clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.2%

0123450 4.4 7.1 4.2 1 9.0 10.2 7.1 3.1 2 7.1 9.2 6.0 2.7 3 4.1 5.2 3.4 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Lokeren-Temse down, KAA Gent II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,100 Challenger Pro League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Challenger Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 3.75 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Lokeren-Temse at home: 2.33 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). KAA Gent II away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.71 goals for Lokeren-Temse, 1.31 for KAA Gent II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~3.75

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~4 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LOK 4–1 KAA · KAA 1–3 LOK · LOK 2–2 KAA · KAA 1–1 LOK

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · Challenger Pro League this season · since 14 Aug

LOKEREN-TEMSE

WWLLWD2–0 · 2–1 · 2–4 · 0–3 · 6–2 · 1–1

KAA GENT II

LWDLDW0–4 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Beerschot VA	7	+12	18
2	Dender	7	+9	18
3	AS Eupen	6	+8	15
4	Francs Borains	6	+2	12
5	Sporting Hasselt	7	−2	12
6	Excelsior Virton	6	+5	10
7	Lokeren-Temse	6	+2	10
8	K. Lierse S.K.	6	−1	8
9	Club Brugge II	6	−2	8
10	KAA Gent II	6	−2	8
11	KRC Genk II	7	−3	7
12	Patro Eisden	7	−4	6
13	Liège	7	−7	5
14	Seraing United	7	−7	2
15	RSC Anderlecht II	7	−10	1