Liège v Patro Eisden prediction · Challenger Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

LiègeDrawPatro Eisden

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 18:15

Before kick-off · Match result · Patro Eisden 40%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Patro Eisden just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Liège 36%, draw 24%, Patro Eisden 40%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Liège v Patro EisdenBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

Liège win36%

Draw24%

Patro Eisden win40%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 18:15

RoundMatchday 8

VenueStade de Rocourt

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Liège

Patro Eisden

8Days since last match9

Last match: 17 Oct · the Belgian Cup

Last match: 16 Oct · the Belgian Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Patro Eisden	7	−4	6
13	Liège	7	−7	5

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · patro eisden winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

40% The market38%

Us40%

~~Market~~38%

We make Patro Eisden a 40% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.4–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Liège v Patro Eisden~~1.36 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in Challenger Pro League this season · since 22 Aug~~W1 D2 L3 · W1 D0 L5

~~Table places · points 5 v 6~~13 v 12

~~The market · Patro Eisden win~~38% · ours 40%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Patro Eisden win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Liège win	36%	35%	+1
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Patro Eisden win	40%	38%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	53%	57%	−4
Both teams to score	56%	61%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	79%	−3
Over 3.5 goals	31%	36%	−5
Liège or draw	60%	62%	−2
Liège clean sheet	23%	–	–
Patro Eisden clean sheet	26%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.1%

0123450 5.4 9.4 6.4 3.1 1 8.8 11.1 8.5 4.2 2 5.5 8.0 5.8 2.8 3 2.5 3.6 2.6 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Liège down, Patro Eisden across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,100 Challenger Pro League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Challenger Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Liège at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Patro Eisden away: 0.83 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.36 goals for Liège, 1.46 for Patro Eisden. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~PAT 1–1 LIE · LIE 0–2 PAT · LIE 2–2 PAT · PAT 2–0 LIE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Challenger Pro League this season · since 22 Aug

LIÈGE

WLDDLL3–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 4–4 · 1–3 · 1–5

PATRO EISDEN

LLLLLW1–2 · 1–2 · 2–4 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 1–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Beerschot VA	7	+12	18
2	Dender	7	+9	18
3	AS Eupen	6	+8	15
4	Francs Borains	6	+2	12
5	Sporting Hasselt	7	−2	12
6	Excelsior Virton	6	+5	10
7	Lokeren-Temse	6	+2	10
8	K. Lierse S.K.	6	−1	8
9	Club Brugge II	6	−2	8
10	KAA Gent II	6	−2	8
11	KRC Genk II	7	−3	7
12	Patro Eisden	7	−4	6
13	Liège	7	−7	5
14	Seraing United	7	−7	2
15	RSC Anderlecht II	7	−10	1