KRC Genk II v Club Brugge II prediction · Challenger Pro League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 18:08

KRC Genk II 0–0 Club Brugge II CLUB BRUGGE II WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Club Brugge II win~~42%

~~The market said~~34%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.917

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.857

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Club Brugge II win at 42%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Club Brugge II 42% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 36–22–42
2′KICK-OFF KRC Genk II v Club Brugge II
23′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Christian Akpan · KRC Genk II
45′HALF-TIME KRC Genk II 0–0 Club Brugge II
46′SECOND HALF KRC Genk II 0–0 Club Brugge II
51′THE CALL SWINGS · 45+6' Draw is now our likeliest result at 38% (was Club Brugge II win 35%)
52′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45+7' Club Brugge II win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
55′Goalless on 55′ when we expected about 3.3 goals — that one is getting away from us. 0–0 · 28–40–31
55′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Adrian Palacios · KRC Genk II
58′We said Club Brugge II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 30%. 0–0 · 27–43–30
60′We said Club Brugge II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 0–0 · 26–44–29
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Club Brugge II · On: Al-Hassan Kamara · Off: Briek Morel
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Club Brugge II · On: Jessi Da Silva · Off: Tian Nai Koren
64′SUBSTITUTION · 45' KRC Genk II · On: Jelle Driessen · Off: Loïc Alvarez Fernandez
69′We said Club Brugge II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 24%. 0–0 · 22–54–24
72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Club Brugge II win: 42% at kick-off, 22% now
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' KRC Genk II · On: Shakhmurat Dauletov · Off: Precious Ogbeiwi
76′We said Club Brugge II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–0 · 17–64–19
81′We said Club Brugge II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 0–0 · 12–74–14
82′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 82' Club Brugge II win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
85′We said Club Brugge II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 0–0 · 8–83–9
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Club Brugge II · On: Axl Wins · Off: Alexander Leon·Vandeperre
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' KRC Genk II · On: Manu Mocsnik · Off: Christian Akpan
89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' KRC Genk II · On: Thierno Amadou Baldé · Off: Kim Myung-jun
91′We said Club Brugge II at 42%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 0–0 · 4–92–4
91′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Club Brugge II · On: Clever Ossohou · Off: Naim Amengai
94′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90+4' Club Brugge II win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
FTFULL TIME KRC Genk II 0–0 Club Brugge II
FTKRC Genk II 0–0 Club Brugge II · Club Brugge II win: wrong · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Club Brugge II are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: KRC Genk II 36%, draw 22%, Club Brugge II 42%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 64%.

The AI’s read on KRC Genk II v Club Brugge IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

KRC Genk II win36%

Draw22%

Club Brugge II win42%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueCegeka Arena

Line-ups

KRC Genk II

4-4-2

Club Brugge II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

KRC Genk II

Club Brugge II

13Days since last match15

Last match: 11 Oct · Challenger Pro League

Last match: 9 Oct · Challenger Pro League

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Club Brugge II	6	−2	8
11	KRC Genk II	7	−3	7

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

KRC Genk II

4-4-2

97 E. Doucouré

2 K. Pierre

73 E. Mbavu

34 A. Palacios

55 Y. Yoshinaga

50 Moussa Kone

65 C. Akpan

74 Loïc Alvarez Fernandez

78 K. Achahbar

89 Kim Myeong-Jun

75 P. Ogbeiwi

Coach · I. de Camargo

Substitutes

82 · Thierno Amadou Baldé

77 · Shakhmurat Dauletov

76 · J. Driessen

54 · S. El Morabet

59 · W. Kapers

22 · Brad Ryan Manguelle

53 · M. Mocsnik

61 · D. Van Laere

72 · Alpha Barry

Club Brugge II

Formation not confirmed

71 A. De Corte

73 Briek Morel

96 D. Odoi

82 S. Gomez van Hoogen

92 Alexander Vandeperre

54 S. Coulibaly

86 G. Okon-Engstler

68 U. Kurtal

85 T. N. Koren

97 N. Amengai

77 A. Vasovic

Coach · Piet Cremers

Substitutes

76 · L. Delorge

95 · M. Elbay

90 · A. Garcia

78 · A. H. Kamara

91 · T. Kestemont

87 · Clever Ossohou

72 · J. Pedro da Silva

99 · K. Angulo

98 · A. Wins

Our number · club brugge ii winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

42% The market34%

Us42%

~~Market~~34%

We make Club Brugge II a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 34%. We are 8 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.6–1.7.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · KRC Genk II v Club Brugge II~~1.56 – 1.70

~~Form · last six in Challenger Pro League this season · since 22 Aug~~W2 D1 L3 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 7 v 8~~11 v 9

~~The market · Club Brugge II win~~34% · ours 42%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Club Brugge II win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 34% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KRC Genk II win	36%	41%	−5
Draw	22%	25%	−3
Club Brugge II win	42%	34%	+8
Over 2.5 goals	63%	66%	−3
Both teams to score	64%	67%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	83%	84%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	41%	46%	−5
KRC Genk II or draw	58%	66%	−8
KRC Genk II clean sheet	19%	–	–
Club Brugge II clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 8 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 9.6%

0123450 3.3 7.2 5.5 3.1 1 6.7 9.6 8.5 4.8 2.1 2 4.7 7.9 6.6 3.8 3 2.5 4.1 3.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KRC Genk II down, Club Brugge II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,100 Challenger Pro League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Challenger Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 8 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 7 of 8 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KRC Genk II at home: 1.67 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Club Brugge II away: 1.50 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for KRC Genk II, 1.70 for Club Brugge II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

8 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~7 of 8

~~Both scored~~5 of 8

~~Last meetings~~KRC 0–0 CLU · CLU 1–2 KRC · CLU 3–0 KRC · KRC 1–2 CLU

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Challenger Pro League this season · since 22 Aug

KRC GENK II

LWWLDL2–3 · 4–2 · 3–0 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 0–1

CLUB BRUGGE II

WWLDDL3–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 4–4 · 2–2 · 0–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Beerschot VA	7	+12	18
2	Dender	7	+9	18
3	AS Eupen	6	+8	15
4	Francs Borains	6	+2	12
5	Sporting Hasselt	7	−2	12
6	Excelsior Virton	6	+5	10
7	Lokeren-Temse	6	+2	10
8	K. Lierse S.K.	6	−1	8
9	Club Brugge II	6	−2	8
10	KAA Gent II	6	−2	8
11	KRC Genk II	7	−3	7
12	Patro Eisden	7	−4	6
13	Liège	7	−7	5
14	Seraing United	7	−7	2
15	RSC Anderlecht II	7	−10	1