KAA Gent II v Seraing United prediction · Challenger Pro League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

KAA Gent II 3–2 Seraing United KAA GENT II WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said KAA Gent II win~~45%

~~The market said~~45%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.454

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.455

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 23 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said KAA Gent II win at 45%.
2′Much as we predicted: KAA Gent II was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–25–30
4′Much as we predicted: KAA Gent II was 45% before kick-off and our model makes it 44% now. 0–0 · 44–26–30
25′KAA Gent II ahead on 20′ through Abdoul Ayinde. 1–1. 1–1 · 41–30–29
29′Tom Lockman scores for Seraing United on 26′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 16–24–60
47′We said KAA Gent II at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 11%. 1–2 · 11–24–64
52′We said KAA Gent II at 45%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–67
56′Tom Lockman scores for Seraing United on 26′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 8–23–69
75′70′ and it is 2–2: Daniel James Wisdom on the scoresheet for KAA Gent II. 2–2 · 19–66–15
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Seraing United win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 24%)
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' KAA Gent II win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
86′THE CALL SWINGS · 86' Draw is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Seraing United win 15%)
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 86' KAA Gent II win: 45% at kick-off, 9% now
87′70′ and it is 2–2: Daniel James Wisdom on the scoresheet for KAA Gent II. 2–2 · 5–91–4
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' KAA Gent II win: 45% at kick-off, 9% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Seraing United win is now our likeliest result at 67% (was Draw 24%)
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 87' KAA Gent II win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
87′THE CALL SWINGS · 87' Draw is now our likeliest result at 66% (was Seraing United win 15%)
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' KAA Gent II · On: Ruslan Vydysh · Off: Oleksandr Soroka
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' KAA Gent II win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 88' KAA Gent II win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' KAA Gent II win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' KAA Gent II win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
89′⚽ GOAL · 90' KAA Gent II 2–2 Seraing United · Jemiah Umolu
89′⚽ GOAL · 89' KAA Gent II 3–2 Seraing United · Jemiah Umolu
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' KAA Gent II win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 90' KAA Gent II win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Moustapha Diop · Seraing United
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' KAA Gent II win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
91′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 91' KAA Gent II win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' KAA Gent II win: 45% at kick-off, 5% now
92′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 92' KAA Gent II win: 45% at kick-off, 19% now
FTFULL TIME KAA Gent II 3–2 Seraing United
FTKAA Gent II 3–2 Seraing United · KAA Gent II win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

KAA Gent II win45%

Draw24%

Seraing United win31%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 18:15

VenuePlanet Group Arena

Line-ups

KAA Gent II

4-4-2

Seraing United

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

KAA Gent II

Seraing United

23Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026/27

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
11	KAA Gent II	5	−3	5
14	Seraing United	6	−6	2

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

KAA Gent II

4-4-2

30 K. Peersman

18 M. Samoise

39 A. Ayindé

56 M. Diallo

35 G. De Meyer

61 A. Abdullahi

28 M. El Âdfaoui

67 O. Soroka

77 G. Vanderdonck

73 A. Donny

74 T. Kongolo

Coach · Thomas Matton

Substitutes

58 · J. Djamba Shango

64 · N. Laghmich

95 · Ahmed Yassin Mohammed Mohammed

97 · S. Toure

63 · J. Umolu

79 · R. Vydysh

82 · D. J. Wisdom

51 · V. De Coninck

71 · P. Blondeel

Seraing United

4-4-2

1 N. Gillekens

31 L. Gregoire

5 V. Corneillie

15 Moustapha Diop

3 O. Kébé

20 A. Tunkadi

7 A. Namri

22 M. Scarpinati

14 F. Mabani

27 A. Messoussa

24 T. Lockman

Coach · A. Mercier

Substitutes

25 · R. Aamer

18 · A. Lommel

36 · Alek Bisevac

4 · R. Bisevac

19 · N. Bouchentouf

21 · V. Di Crescenzo

10 · S. Faye

16 · Romain Jean-Baptiste

23 · Yannis Lawson

Our number · kaa gent ii winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

45% The market45%

Us45%

~~Market~~45%

We make KAA Gent II a 45% chance to win. The market has them at 45%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.6–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · kaa gent ii win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 45% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KAA Gent II win	45%	45%	0
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Seraing United win	31%	28%	+3
Over 2.5 goals	53%	54%	0
Both teams to score	55%	58%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	76%	76%	0
Over 3.5 goals	31%	33%	−2
KAA Gent II or draw	69%	72%	−3
KAA Gent II clean sheet	29%	–	–
Seraing United clean sheet	21%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.0%

0123450 5.5 8.2 4.7 1 10.1 11.0 7.2 3.0 2 7.3 9.0 5.6 2.4 3 3.8 4.7 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KAA Gent II down, Seraing United across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,098 Challenger Pro League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Challenger Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.8% of games this season, across 47 played.

Head to head

2 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KAA Gent II at home: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). Seraing United away: 1.50 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.56 goals for KAA Gent II, 1.25 for Seraing United. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2025

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KAA 3–1 SER · SER 0–2 KAA

Form · last six in Challenger Pro League

KAA GENT II

DLWDLD1–1 · 0–4 · 2–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–2

SERAING UNITED

LLDLLD0–2 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Beerschot VA	7	+12	18
2	Dender	7	+9	18
3	AS Eupen	6	+8	15
4	Francs Borains	6	+2	12
5	Sporting Hasselt	7	−2	12
6	Excelsior Virton	6	+5	10
7	Lokeren-Temse	6	+2	10
8	K. Lierse S.K.	6	−1	8
9	Club Brugge II	6	−2	8
10	KRC Genk II	6	−2	7
11	KAA Gent II	5	−3	5
12	Liège	7	−7	5
13	Patro Eisden	6	−5	3
14	Seraing United	6	−6	2
15	RSC Anderlecht II	7	−10	1