KAA Gent II v K. Lierse S.K. prediction · Challenger Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

KAA Gent IIDrawK. Lierse S.K.

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 19:00

Before kick-off · Match result · KAA Gent II 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with KAA Gent II just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: KAA Gent II 39%, draw 24%, K. Lierse S.K. 37%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on KAA Gent II v K. Lierse S.K.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

KAA Gent II win39%

Draw24%

K. Lierse S.K. win37%

Kick-offFRI 30 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 9

VenuePlanet Group Arena

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

KAA Gent II

K. Lierse S.K.

6Days since last match20

Last match: 24 Oct · Challenger Pro League

Last match: 10 Oct · Challenger Pro League

1Matches in previous 14 days0

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	K. Lierse S.K.	6	−1	8
11	KAA Gent II	7	−4	8

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · kaa gent ii winFirst published 24 Oct 00:02 · locked at kick-off

39% The market–

Us39%

We make KAA Gent II a 39% chance to win. The model expects 1.4–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · KAA Gent II v K. Lierse S.K.~~1.43 – 1.39

~~Form · last six in Challenger Pro League this season · since 15 Aug~~W2 D2 L2 · W2 D2 L2

~~Table places · points 8 v 8~~11 v 9

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · KAA Gent II win

Our number has not moved since we published.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
KAA Gent II win	39%	–	–
Draw	24%	–	–
K. Lierse S.K. win	37%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	53%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	76%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	31%	–	–
KAA Gent II or draw	63%	–	–
KAA Gent II clean sheet	25%	–	–
K. Lierse S.K. clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.2%

0123450 5.5 8.9 5.8 2.7 1 9.2 11.2 8.1 3.8 2 6.1 8.3 5.8 2.7 3 2.9 4.0 2.8 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+KAA Gent II down, K. Lierse S.K. across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,103 Challenger Pro League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Challenger Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.5% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 2 previous meetings since 2022/23 in every competition we cover, 2.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 2 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

KAA Gent II at home: 1.67 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). K. Lierse S.K. away: 0.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for KAA Gent II, 1.39 for K. Lierse S.K.. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

2 meetings since 2022/23

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 2

~~Both scored~~1 of 2

~~Last meetings~~KLI 1–3 KAA · KAA 0–0 KLI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Challenger Pro League this season · since 15 Aug

KAA GENT II

WDLDWL2–0 · 2–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 3–2 · 0–2

K. LIERSE S.K.

LWDDLW0–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–3 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Beerschot VA	7	+12	18
2	Dender	7	+9	18
3	AS Eupen	6	+8	15
4	Lokeren-Temse	7	+4	13
5	Francs Borains	6	+2	12
6	Sporting Hasselt	7	−2	12
7	Excelsior Virton	7	+3	10
8	Club Brugge II	7	−2	9
9	K. Lierse S.K.	6	−1	8
10	KRC Genk II	8	−3	8
11	KAA Gent II	7	−4	8
12	Patro Eisden	7	−4	6
13	Seraing United	8	−5	5
14	Liège	7	−7	5
15	RSC Anderlecht II	7	−10	1