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K. Lierse S.K. v Francs Borains

K. Lierse S.K.

3–0Full time

Francs Borains

Challenger Pro League · SAT 10 OCT · Herman Vanderpoorten Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

K. Lierse S.K. 3–0 Francs Borains K. LIERSE S.K. WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said K. Lierse S.K. win~~43%

~~The market said~~33%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.489

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.685

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 25 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said K. Lierse S.K. win at 43%.
5′KICK-OFF K. Lierse S.K. v Francs Borains
8′K. Lierse S.K. ahead on 6′ through Mathias Francotte. 0–0. 0–0 · 41–27–31
8′⚽ GOAL · 6' K. Lierse S.K. 0–0 Francs Borains
10′⚽ GOAL · 10' K. Lierse S.K. 1–0 Francs Borains · Mathias Francotte
28′We said K. Lierse S.K. at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 71%. 1–0 · 71–20–10
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' K. Lierse S.K. win: 43% at kick-off, 71% now
45′HALF-TIME K. Lierse S.K. 1–0 Francs Borains
48′SECOND HALF K. Lierse S.K. 1–0 Francs Borains
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' K. Lierse S.K. 2–0 Francs Borains · Mathias Francotte
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' K. Lierse S.K. 2–0 Francs Borains · Kyan Himpe
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Francs Borains · On: Noah Diliberto · Off: Raymond Asante
57′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Francs Borains · On: Corenthyn Lavie · Off: Yannis Kari
58′⚽ GOAL · 6' K. Lierse S.K. 2–0 Francs Borains · Mathias Francotte
58′⚽ GOAL · 49' K. Lierse S.K. 2–0 Francs Borains · Kyan Himpe
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Francs Borains · On: Noah Diliberto · Off: Raymond Asante
58′SUBSTITUTION · 56' Francs Borains · On: Corenthyn Lavie · Off: Yannis Kari
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' K. Lierse S.K. 3–0 Francs Borains · Kyan Himpe
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' K. Lierse S.K. 3–0 Francs Borains · Pietro Perdichizzi
66′SUBSTITUTION · 65' K. Lierse S.K. · On: Christian Nsonga Fopossi Kouam · Off: Bryan Smeets
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Francs Borains · On: Enzo Faty · Off: Dieumerci Ndongala
72′SUBSTITUTION · 71' Francs Borains · On: Rabby Mateta Pepa · Off: Keres Masangu
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' K. Lierse S.K. · On: Daan De Peuter · Off: Kyan Himpe
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' K. Lierse S.K. · On: Jano Willems · Off: Vincent De Vos
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' K. Lierse S.K. · On: Dylan Dassy · Off: Samih El Touile
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' K. Lierse S.K. · On: Thiebe Van Elsuwege · Off: Sam Vanderhallen
87′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Francs Borains · On: Severin nioule · Off: Aboubacar Ali
FTFULL TIME K. Lierse S.K. 3–0 Francs Borains
FTK. Lierse S.K. 3–0 Francs Borains · K. Lierse S.K. win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

K. Lierse S.K. win43%

Draw25%

Francs Borains win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Herman Vanderpoorten Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

K. Lierse S.K.

4-4-2

1 J. De Smet

58 V. De Vos

4 S. Vanderhallen

2 P. Perdichizzi

21 Elton Yeboah

80 M. Mitrović

79 P. Dwomoh

6 N. Mayoka-Tika

11 S. El Touile

5 B. Smeets

19 Kyan Himpe

Coach · Arno Van den Abbeel

Substitutes

20 · D. Dassy

16 · Louis Daems

99 · L. Bončina

27 · D. De Peuter

8 · Christian Nsonga Fopossi Kouam

10 · Alexandre Stanic

32 · W. Van Clemen

3 · T. Elsuwege

24 · J. Willems

Francs Borains

4-2-3-1

20 V. Swinnen

28 M. Francotte

77 J. Molle

24 D. Dessoleil

78 R. Monticelli

8 K. Masangu

17 Y. kari

11 D. Ndongala

12 R. Asante

29 M. Bastian

10 A. Ali

Coach · Y. Vanderhaeghe

Substitutes

27 · N. Wasbauer

33 · N. Diliberto

19 · E. Faty

16 · E. Faucon

1 · N. Jauny

25 · C. Lavie

23 · L. Malungu

6 · R. Mateta

22 · S. Nioule

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

K. Lierse S.K.

4-4-2

1 J. De Smet

58 V. De Vos

4 S. Vanderhallen

2 P. Perdichizzi

21 Elton Yeboah

80 M. Mitrović

79 P. Dwomoh

6 N. Mayoka-Tika

11 S. El Touile

5 B. Smeets

19 Kyan Himpe

Coach · Arno Van den Abbeel

Substitutes

20 · D. Dassy

16 · Louis Daems

99 · L. Bončina

27 · D. De Peuter

8 · Christian Nsonga Fopossi Kouam

10 · Alexandre Stanic

32 · W. Van Clemen

3 · T. Elsuwege

24 · J. Willems

Francs Borains

4-2-3-1

20 V. Swinnen

28 M. Francotte

77 J. Molle

24 D. Dessoleil

78 R. Monticelli

8 K. Masangu

17 Y. kari

11 D. Ndongala

12 R. Asante

29 M. Bastian

10 A. Ali

Coach · Y. Vanderhaeghe

Substitutes

27 · N. Wasbauer

33 · N. Diliberto

19 · E. Faty

16 · E. Faucon

1 · N. Jauny

25 · C. Lavie

23 · L. Malungu

6 · R. Mateta

22 · S. Nioule

Our number · k. lierse s.k. winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

43% The market33%

Us43%

~~Market~~33%

We make K. Lierse S.K. a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 33%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.4–1.2.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
K. Lierse S.K. win	43%	33%	+10
Draw	25%	28%	−3
Francs Borains win	32%	39%	−7
Over 2.5 goals	49%	51%	−2
Both teams to score	52%	56%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	30%	−3
K. Lierse S.K. or draw	68%	61%	+7
K. Lierse S.K. clean sheet	30%	–	–
Francs Borains clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.7 9.4 5.2 2.1 1 11.0 11.6 7.3 2.9 2 7.4 8.7 5.2 2.1 3 3.5 4.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+K. Lierse S.K. down, Francs Borains across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,095 Challenger Pro League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Challenger Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

6 previous meetings, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

K. Lierse S.K. at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Francs Borains away: 1.00 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.43 goals for K. Lierse S.K., 1.20 for Francs Borains. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:06. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 6

~~Both scored~~1 of 6

~~Last meetings~~KLI 0–2 FRA · FRA 0–1 KLI · FRA 1–0 KLI · KLI 4–0 FRA

Form · last six in Challenger Pro League

K. LIERSE S.K.

DLWDDL1–1 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–3

FRANCS BORAINS

LWLWWW0–4 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 3–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dender	7	+9	18
2	AS Eupen	6	+8	15
3	Beerschot VA	6	+8	15
4	Francs Borains	5	+5	12
5	Excelsior Virton	5	+6	10
6	Lokeren-Temse	6	+2	10
7	Sporting Hasselt	6	−3	9
8	Club Brugge II	6	−2	8
9	KRC Genk II	6	−2	7
10	Liège	6	−3	5
11	KAA Gent II	5	−3	5
12	K. Lierse S.K.	5	−4	5
13	Patro Eisden	6	−5	3
14	Seraing United	6	−6	2
15	RSC Anderlecht II	7	−10	1