Francs Borains v Dender prediction · Challenger Pro League

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · postponed

Dender are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Francs Borains 26%, draw 24%, Dender 50%. Over 2.5 goals 48%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Francs Borains v DenderBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 17 Oct 00:01 · postponed, not graded

Francs Borains win26%

Draw24%

Dender win50%

Kick-offFRI 23 OCT · 19:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueStade Robert Urbain

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Francs Borains

Dender

6Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · the Belgian Cup

Last match: 16 Oct · the Belgian Cup

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Dender	7	+9	18
4	Francs Borains	6	+2	12

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · dender winFirst published 17 Oct 00:01 · postponed, not graded

50% The market44%

Us50%

~~Market~~44%

We make Dender a 50% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Francs Borains v Dender~~1.04 – 1.55

~~Form · last six in Challenger Pro League this season · since 17 Aug~~W4 D0 L2 · W6 D0 L0

~~Table places · points 12 v 18~~4 v 2

~~The market · Dender win~~44% · ours 50%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dender win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Francs Borains win	26%	29%	−3
Draw	24%	27%	−3
Dender win	50%	44%	+6
Over 2.5 goals	48%	53%	−5
Both teams to score	50%	57%	−7
Over 1.5 goals	72%	76%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	26%	33%	−7
Francs Borains or draw	50%	56%	−6
Francs Borains clean sheet	21%	–	–
Dender clean sheet	36%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.3%

0123450 6.9 12.3 9.0 4.7 1 8.6 11.3 9.2 4.8 2 4.1 6.2 4.8 2.5 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Francs Borains down, Dender across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,100 Challenger Pro League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Challenger Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.3% of games this season, across 49 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 2.75 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Francs Borains at home: 2.17 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Dender away: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.04 goals for Francs Borains, 1.55 for Dender. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~2.75

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~FRA 0–3 DEN · DEN 2–0 FRA · DEN 3–1 FRA · FRA 1–1 DEN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Challenger Pro League this season · since 17 Aug

FRANCS BORAINS

WLWWWL2–1 · 0–1 · 1–0 · 3–0 · 3–2 · 0–3

DENDER

WWWWWW2–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 3–0

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Beerschot VA	7	+12	18
2	Dender	7	+9	18
3	AS Eupen	6	+8	15
4	Francs Borains	6	+2	12
5	Sporting Hasselt	7	−2	12
6	Excelsior Virton	6	+5	10
7	Lokeren-Temse	6	+2	10
8	K. Lierse S.K.	6	−1	8
9	Club Brugge II	6	−2	8
10	KAA Gent II	6	−2	8
11	KRC Genk II	7	−3	7
12	Patro Eisden	7	−4	6
13	Liège	7	−7	5
14	Seraing United	7	−7	2
15	RSC Anderlecht II	7	−10	1