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Excelsior Virton v Sporting Hasselt

Excelsior Virton

3–4Full time

Sporting Hasselt

Challenger Pro League · SAT 10 OCT · Stade Yvan Georges

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Excelsior Virton 3–4 Sporting Hasselt EXCELSIOR VIRTON WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Excelsior Virton win~~42%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.704

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.585

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay3 notes · 60 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Excelsior Virton win at 42%.
3′6′ and it is 0–0: Excelsior Virton have scored. 0–0 · 41–28–31
11′⚽ GOAL · 11' Excelsior Virton 1–1 Sporting Hasselt · Abdelsamad Hachem
13′⚽ GOAL · 10' Excelsior Virton 1–1 Sporting Hasselt · Javan Ngoyi
25′Sporting Hasselt ahead on 10′ through Javan Ngoyi. 1–1. 1–1 · 37–33–29
35′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Loic Masscho · Sporting Hasselt
44′PENALTY · 43' Excelsior Virton
45′Little has changed for our model: Excelsior Virton 42% before kick-off, 32% now. 1–1 · 32–42–26
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Excelsior Virton win: 42% at kick-off, 32% now
45′THE CALL SWINGS · 45' Draw is now our likeliest result at 42% (was Excelsior Virton win 32%)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Andres Labie · Sporting Hasselt
45′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Cheick Thiam · Sporting Hasselt
45′⚽ GOAL · 53' Excelsior Virton 2–1 Sporting Hasselt · Abdelsamad Hachem
45′HALF-TIME Excelsior Virton 2–1 Sporting Hasselt
47′SECOND HALF Excelsior Virton 2–1 Sporting Hasselt
55′⚽ GOAL · 6' Excelsior Virton 2–1 Sporting Hasselt · Abdelsamad Hachem (assist Tyron Tormin)
55′⚽ GOAL · 10' Excelsior Virton 2–1 Sporting Hasselt · Javan Ngoyi
55′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Loic Masscho · Sporting Hasselt
55′PENALTY · 43' Excelsior Virton
55′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Andres Labie · Sporting Hasselt
55′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Cheick Thiam · Sporting Hasselt
55′PENALTY · 51' Excelsior Virton
55′⚽ GOAL · 53' Excelsior Virton 2–1 Sporting Hasselt · Abdelsamad Hachem
59′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Livio Milts · Sporting Hasselt
60′⚽ GOAL · 60' Excelsior Virton 3–1 Sporting Hasselt · Abdelsamad Hachem
61′⚽ GOAL · 60' Excelsior Virton 3–1 Sporting Hasselt · Lucas Eric Vankerkhoven
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Excelsior Virton · On: Ihab Goudani El Baraka · Off: Tyron Tormin
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Sporting Hasselt · On: Siebe Van Keymolen · Off: M. Bounou
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Aliou Dembele · Excelsior Virton
75′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Sporting Hasselt · On: Wilson Da Costa · Off: Loic Masscho
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Excelsior Virton · On: Antoine Valerio · Off: Paul Wade
75′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Excelsior Virton · On: Luca Maiorano · Off: Gaetan Arib
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Sporting Hasselt · On: Ryan Sanusi · Off: Nicolas Gerits
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sporting Hasselt · On: Alain-Jerry Lufira Luebo · Off: Geoffry Hairemans
76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sporting Hasselt · On: Niels Geert Verburgh · Off: Cheick Thiam
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Excelsior Virton 3–2 Sporting Hasselt · Lucas Eric Vankerkhoven
88′⚽ GOAL · 87' Excelsior Virton 3–2 Sporting Hasselt · Siebe Van Keymolen (assist Wilson Da Costa)
90′⚽ GOAL · 88' Excelsior Virton 3–3 Sporting Hasselt · Livio Milts
90′⚽ GOAL · 6' Excelsior Virton 3–3 Sporting Hasselt · Abdelsamad Hachem (assist Tyron Tormin)
90′⚽ GOAL · 10' Excelsior Virton 3–3 Sporting Hasselt · Javan Ngoyi
90′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Loic Masscho · Sporting Hasselt
90′PENALTY · 43' Excelsior Virton
90′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Andres Labie · Sporting Hasselt
90′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Cheick Thiam · Sporting Hasselt
90′PENALTY · 51' Excelsior Virton
90′⚽ GOAL · 53' Excelsior Virton 3–3 Sporting Hasselt · Abdelsamad Hachem
90′🟨 YELLOW · 58' Livio Milts · Sporting Hasselt
90′⚽ GOAL · 60' Excelsior Virton 3–3 Sporting Hasselt · Lucas Eric Vankerkhoven
90′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Sporting Hasselt · On: Siebe Van Keymolen · Off: M. Bounou
90′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Excelsior Virton · On: Ihab Goudani El Baraka · Off: Tyron Tormin
90′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Aliou Dembele · Excelsior Virton
90′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Sporting Hasselt · On: Wilson Da Costa · Off: Loic Masscho
90′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Excelsior Virton · On: Luca Maiorano · Off: Gaetan Arib
90′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Excelsior Virton · On: Antoine Valerio · Off: Paul Wade
90′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Sporting Hasselt · On: Ryan Sanusi · Off: Nicolas Gerits
90′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sporting Hasselt · On: Alain-Jerry Lufira Luebo · Off: Geoffry Hairemans
90′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Sporting Hasselt · On: Niels Geert Verburgh · Off: Cheick Thiam
90′⚽ GOAL · 87' Excelsior Virton 3–3 Sporting Hasselt · Siebe Van Keymolen (assist Wilson Da Costa)
90′⚽ GOAL · 88' Excelsior Virton 3–3 Sporting Hasselt · Livio Milts (assist Javan Ngoyi)
90′SUBSTITUTION · 93' Excelsior Virton · On: Marks Inchaud · Off: Abdelsamad Hachem
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Javan Ngoyi · Sporting Hasselt
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Excelsior Virton 3–4 Sporting Hasselt · Livio Milts
90′⚽ GOAL · 94' Excelsior Virton 3–4 Sporting Hasselt · Javan Ngoyi
FTFULL TIME Excelsior Virton 3–4 Sporting Hasselt
FTExcelsior Virton 3–4 Sporting Hasselt · Excelsior Virton win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Excelsior Virton win42%

Draw26%

Sporting Hasselt win32%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Stade Yvan Georges

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Excelsior Virton

5-3-2

1 C. De Schrevel

22 S. Assengue

4 E. Kari

25 W. Simba

3 A. Tchaptchet

18 J. Ntenda

8 G. Arib

13 A. Dembélé

10 P. Wade

11 A. Hachem

17 T. Tormin

Coach · Drazen Brncic

Substitutes

28 · Y. Hamed

16 · N. Closset

19 · I. Goudani

6 · M. Guillaume

9 · M. Inchaud

14 · Luca Maiorano

26 · V. Sanson

21 · A. Valério

20 · Lorenzo De Geyndt

Sporting Hasselt

4-2-3-1

99 Leonardo Cascio

8 L. Masscho

3 C. Thiam

15 Andres Labie

5 L. Lucker

23 N. Gerits

17 L. Vankerkhoven

7 G. Hairemans

18 Javan Ngoyi

11 L. Milts

10 M. Bounou

Coach · –

Substitutes

74 · E. Butera

6 · N. Verburgh

9 · Siebe Van Keymolen

13 · R. Sanusi

27 · M. Roekaerts

14 · N. Orye

80 · A. Lufira Luebo

22 · M. Dassen

29 · W. Da Costa

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Excelsior Virton

5-3-2

1 C. De Schrevel

22 S. Assengue

4 E. Kari

25 W. Simba

3 A. Tchaptchet

18 J. Ntenda

8 G. Arib

13 A. Dembélé

10 P. Wade

11 A. Hachem

17 T. Tormin

Coach · Drazen Brncic

Substitutes

28 · Y. Hamed

16 · N. Closset

19 · I. Goudani

6 · M. Guillaume

9 · M. Inchaud

14 · Luca Maiorano

26 · V. Sanson

21 · A. Valério

20 · Lorenzo De Geyndt

Sporting Hasselt

4-2-3-1

99 Leonardo Cascio

8 L. Masscho

3 C. Thiam

15 Andres Labie

5 L. Lucker

23 N. Gerits

17 L. Vankerkhoven

7 G. Hairemans

18 Javan Ngoyi

11 L. Milts

10 M. Bounou

Coach · –

Substitutes

74 · E. Butera

6 · N. Verburgh

9 · Siebe Van Keymolen

13 · R. Sanusi

27 · M. Roekaerts

14 · N. Orye

80 · A. Lufira Luebo

22 · M. Dassen

29 · W. Da Costa

Our number · excelsior virton winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

42% The market36%

Us42%

~~Market~~36%

We make Excelsior Virton a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are 6 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Excelsior Virton win	42%	36%	+6
Draw	26%	26%	0
Sporting Hasselt win	32%	38%	−6
Over 2.5 goals	43%	58%	−15
Both teams to score	47%	62%	−14
Over 1.5 goals	69%	80%	−11
Over 3.5 goals	23%	38%	−15
Excelsior Virton or draw	68%	62%	+6
Excelsior Virton clean sheet	34%	–	–
Sporting Hasselt clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.5%

0123450 8.5 10.6 5.5 2.1 1 12.5 12.0 7.0 2.6 2 7.7 8.3 4.5 3 3.4 3.7 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Excelsior Virton down, Sporting Hasselt across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,095 Challenger Pro League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Challenger Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

No previous meeting in our records, so this step adds nothing.

Home and away form

Excelsior Virton at home: 1.50 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Sporting Hasselt away: 1.00 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 3).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Excelsior Virton, 1.11 for Sporting Hasselt. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 15:06. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

0 meetings since 2021

No previous meeting of these two in our records. We say so rather than invent one.

Form · last six in Challenger Pro League

EXCELSIOR VIRTON

WWWLWD3–1 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 1–1

SPORTING HASSELT

WWLLWL1–0 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 0–3 · 2–1 · 0–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dender	7	+9	18
2	AS Eupen	6	+8	15
3	Beerschot VA	6	+8	15
4	Francs Borains	5	+5	12
5	Excelsior Virton	5	+6	10
6	Lokeren-Temse	6	+2	10
7	Sporting Hasselt	6	−3	9
8	Club Brugge II	6	−2	8
9	KRC Genk II	6	−2	7
10	Liège	6	−3	5
11	KAA Gent II	5	−3	5
12	K. Lierse S.K.	5	−4	5
13	Patro Eisden	6	−5	3
14	Seraing United	6	−6	2
15	RSC Anderlecht II	7	−10	1