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Dender v Club Brugge II

Dender

3–0Full time

Club Brugge II

Challenger Pro League · FRI 9 OCT · Stade Van Roy

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 21:30

Dender 3–0 Club Brugge II DENDER WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dender win~~52%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.346

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.184

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay4 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dender win at 52%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Dender 52% before kick-off, 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–25
1′KICK-OFF Dender v Club Brugge II
16′🟨 YELLOW · 16' Gianluca Tommaso Okon-Engstler · Club Brugge II
23′⚽ GOAL · 23' Dender 1–0 Club Brugge II · Krzysztof Koton
25′Krzysztof Koton scores for Dender on 23′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–2
25′⚽ GOAL · 25' Dender 2–0 Club Brugge II · Krzysztof Koton
25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' Dender win: 52% at kick-off, 93% now
25′⚽ GOAL · 26' Dender 2–0 Club Brugge II · Krzysztof Koton
29′25′ and it is 2–0: Krzysztof Koton on the scoresheet for Dender. 2–0 · 93–5–2
34′We said Dender at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 93%. 2–0 · 93–5–1
45′SECOND HALF Dender 2–0 Club Brugge II
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Dender 3–0 Club Brugge II · Krzysztof Koton
49′⚽ GOAL · 49' Dender 3–0 Club Brugge II · Gerard Vandeplas
59′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Club Brugge II · On: Al-Hassan Kamara · Off: Wisdom Mike
60′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Club Brugge II · On: Briek Morel · Off: Mohamed Galal Elbay
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Dender · On: David Tosevski · Off: Amine Daali
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Club Brugge II · On: Jessi Da Silva · Off: Naim Amengai
75′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Club Brugge II · On: Kevin Angulo · Off: Andrej Vasovic
77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Club Brugge II · On: Kevin Angulo · Off: Andrej Vasovic
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Dender · On: Pjotr Kestens · Off: Adam Nhaili
84′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Club Brugge II · On: Samuel·Gomez Van Hoogen · Off: Alexander Leon·Vandeperre
88′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Dender · On: Oumar Balde · Off: Gerard Vandeplas
FTFULL TIME Dender 3–0 Club Brugge II
FTDender 3–0 Club Brugge II · Dender win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Dender win52%

Draw23%

Club Brugge II win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Stade Van Roy

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Dender

5-3-2

16 J. Devriendt

70 M. Sambu

22 I. Breugelmans

21 K. Cools

6 B. Kerf

45 Amine Daali

18 N. Rôdes

24 M. Viltard

53 A. Nhaili

15 K. Koton

14 G. Vandeplas

Coach · J. Silva

Substitutes

23 · M. Expérience

1 · L. Fortin

60 · Oumar Balde

12 · Pedro Gomes

2 · C. Jullien

17 · P. Kestens

7 · E. Mballa Amougou

8 · O. Szulc

9 · D. Toševski

Club Brugge II

4-4-2

81 Argus Vanden Driessche

95 M. Elbay

54 S. Coulibaly

96 D. Odoi

92 Alexander Vandeperre

39 M. Robberechts

86 G. Okon-Engstler

68 U. Kurtal

27 W. Mike

97 N. Amengai

77 A. Vasovic

Coach · Piet Cremers

Substitutes

82 · S. Gomez van Hoogen

90 · A. Garcia

72 · J. Pedro da Silva

99 · K. Angulo

91 · T. Kestemont

73 · Briek Morel

78 · A. H. Kamara

76 · L. Delorge

94 · E. Callens

74 · M. Haesaert

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Dender

5-3-2

16 J. Devriendt

70 M. Sambu

22 I. Breugelmans

21 K. Cools

6 B. Kerf

45 Amine Daali

18 N. Rôdes

24 M. Viltard

53 A. Nhaili

15 K. Koton

14 G. Vandeplas

Coach · J. Silva

Substitutes

23 · M. Expérience

1 · L. Fortin

60 · Oumar Balde

12 · Pedro Gomes

2 · C. Jullien

17 · P. Kestens

7 · E. Mballa Amougou

8 · O. Szulc

9 · D. Toševski

Club Brugge II

4-4-2

81 Argus Vanden Driessche

95 M. Elbay

54 S. Coulibaly

96 D. Odoi

92 Alexander Vandeperre

39 M. Robberechts

86 G. Okon-Engstler

68 U. Kurtal

27 W. Mike

97 N. Amengai

77 A. Vasovic

Coach · Piet Cremers

Substitutes

82 · S. Gomez van Hoogen

90 · A. Garcia

72 · J. Pedro da Silva

99 · K. Angulo

91 · T. Kestemont

73 · Briek Morel

78 · A. H. Kamara

76 · L. Delorge

94 · E. Callens

74 · M. Haesaert

Our number · dender winPublished 9 Oct 19:02

52% The market65%

Us52%

~~Market~~65%

We make Dender a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are 13 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dender win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 63% to 65% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dender win	52%	65%	−13
Draw	23%	20%	+3
Club Brugge II win	25%	15%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	53%	63%	−10
Both teams to score	54%	57%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	76%	83%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	31%	42%	−11
Dender or draw	75%	85%	−10
Dender clean sheet	34%	–	–
Club Brugge II clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.0%

0123450 5.6 7.4 3.7 1 11.0 10.7 6.2 2.3 2 8.8 9.5 5.2 3 5.0 5.4 3.0 4 2.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dender down, Club Brugge II across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,093 Challenger Pro League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Challenger Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.9% of games this season, across 42 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.25 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dender at home: 2.17 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Club Brugge II away: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.70 goals for Dender, 1.10 for Club Brugge II. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 9 Oct 19:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~3.25

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~CLU 0–1 DEN · DEN 2–0 CLU · CLU 4–1 DEN · DEN 3–2 CLU

Form · last six in Challenger Pro League

DENDER

LWWWWW0–1 · 2–0 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

CLUB BRUGGE II

WWWLDD1–0 · 3–2 · 2–1 · 0–1 · 4–4 · 2–2

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Beerschot VA	6	+8	15
2	Dender	6	+6	15
3	AS Eupen	5	+6	12
4	Francs Borains	5	+5	12
5	Excelsior Virton	5	+6	10
6	Lokeren-Temse	6	+2	10
7	Sporting Hasselt	6	−3	9
8	Club Brugge II	5	+1	8
9	KRC Genk II	6	−2	7
10	Liège	6	−3	5
11	KAA Gent II	5	−3	5
12	K. Lierse S.K.	5	−4	5
13	Patro Eisden	6	−5	3
14	Seraing United	6	−6	2
15	RSC Anderlecht II	6	−8	1