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Beerschot VA v Liège

Beerschot VA

5–1Full time

Liège

Challenger Pro League · SAT 10 OCT · Olympisch Stadion

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 21:31

Beerschot VA 5–1 Liège BEERSCHOT VA WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Beerschot VA win~~52%

~~The market said~~64%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.350

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.193

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 26 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Beerschot VA win at 52%.
1′Much as we predicted: Beerschot VA was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 51% now. 0–0 · 51–24–25
1′KICK-OFF Beerschot VA v Liège
7′Much as we predicted: Beerschot VA was 52% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 50–25–25
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Beerschot VA 0–1 Liège
45′HALF-TIME Beerschot VA 0–1 Liège
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Beerschot VA · On: Toshio Lake · Off: Mats Rits
46′SECOND HALF Beerschot VA 0–1 Liège
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Beerschot VA 1–1 Liège · Harrison Ondo-Eyi
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Beerschot VA 1–1 Liège · Anas Haj Mohamed
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Liège · On: Kylian Hazard · Off: Harrison Ondo-Eyi
59′⚽ GOAL · 59' Beerschot VA 2–1 Liège · Anas Haj Mohamed
60′⚽ GOAL · 59' Beerschot VA 2–1 Liège · Arnold Vula Lamb Luth
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Liège · On: Nacim Dendani · Off: Reno Wilmots
63′⚽ GOAL · 63' Beerschot VA 3–1 Liège · Arnold Vula Lamb Luth
63′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Liège · On: Kevin Shkurti · Off: Damien Mouchamps
76′⚽ GOAL · 76' Beerschot VA 4–1 Liège · Arnold Vula Lamb Luth
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Beerschot VA · On: Dennis Gyamfi · Off: Milan Govaers
79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' Beerschot VA · On: Glenn Claes · Off: Anas Haj Mohamed
81′⚽ GOAL · 81' Beerschot VA 4–1 Liège · Arnold Vula Lamb Luth
82′⚽ GOAL · 81' Beerschot VA 4–1 Liège · Arnold Vula Lamb Luth
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Liège · On: Ousmane Camara · Off: Benoit Bruggeman
83′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Liège · On: Rambok Ryan Wesley Ogam · Off: Valentin Guillaume
84′🟨 YELLOW · 83' D'Margio Wright-Phillips · Beerschot VA
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Beerschot VA · On: Ensar Brahic · Off: Arnold Vula Lamb Luth
88′SUBSTITUTION · 87' Beerschot VA · On: Takatora Einaga · Off: D'Margio Wright-Phillips
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Beerschot VA 5–1 Liège · Arnold Vula Lamb Luth
90′⚽ GOAL · 90' Beerschot VA 5–1 Liège · Dennis Gyamfi
FTFULL TIME Beerschot VA 5–1 Liège
FTBeerschot VA 5–1 Liège · Beerschot VA win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Beerschot VA win52%

Draw23%

Liège win25%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 19:00

Venue · Olympisch Stadion

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Beerschot VA

4-2-3-1

13 W. Popp

4 B. Plat

3 M. Govaers

6 B. Van den Eynden

5 S. Audoor

20 M. Rits

8 L. Van Eenoo

21 M. Anas

32 D. Wright-Phillips

78 G. Haraguchi

15 A. Vula

Coach · Mohamed Messoudi

Substitutes

45 · E. Brahic

19 · J. Bustin

10 · G. Claes

41 · T. Einaga

1 · X. Gies

76 · D. Gyamfi

24 · E. Jordanov

7 · T. Lake

26 · B. Stevens

17 · A. Van Himbeeck

46 · A. Arslan

Liège

4-1-4-1

12 O. Ravet

13 D. Mouchamps

16 E. N'jo

5 P. Ngawa

25 J. D'Ostilio

28 R. Wilmots

18 S. Paulet

8 K. Ruiz-Atil

14 V. Guillaume

7 B. Bruggeman

26 Birane Wane

Coach · G. Englebert

Substitutes

6 · K. Shkurti

23 · Stephen Reynaerts

15 · R. Ogam

10 · K. Hazard

11 · N. Dendani

1 · A. André

99 · H. Ondo-Eyi

19 · A. Refai

17 · A. N'Salambi

24 · O. Camara

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Beerschot VA

4-2-3-1

13 W. Popp

4 B. Plat

3 M. Govaers

6 B. Van den Eynden

5 S. Audoor

20 M. Rits

8 L. Van Eenoo

21 M. Anas

32 D. Wright-Phillips

78 G. Haraguchi

15 A. Vula

Coach · Mohamed Messoudi

Substitutes

45 · E. Brahic

19 · J. Bustin

10 · G. Claes

41 · T. Einaga

1 · X. Gies

76 · D. Gyamfi

24 · E. Jordanov

7 · T. Lake

26 · B. Stevens

17 · A. Van Himbeeck

46 · A. Arslan

Liège

4-1-4-1

12 O. Ravet

13 D. Mouchamps

16 E. N'jo

5 P. Ngawa

25 J. D'Ostilio

28 R. Wilmots

18 S. Paulet

8 K. Ruiz-Atil

14 V. Guillaume

7 B. Bruggeman

26 Birane Wane

Coach · G. Englebert

Substitutes

6 · K. Shkurti

23 · Stephen Reynaerts

15 · R. Ogam

10 · K. Hazard

11 · N. Dendani

1 · A. André

99 · H. Ondo-Eyi

19 · A. Refai

17 · A. N'Salambi

24 · O. Camara

Our number · beerschot va winPublished 10 Oct 19:09

52% The market64%

Us52%

~~Market~~64%

We make Beerschot VA a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 64%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.7–1.1.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Beerschot VA win	52%	64%	−12
Draw	23%	20%	+3
Liège win	25%	15%	+10
Over 2.5 goals	53%	65%	−13
Both teams to score	53%	59%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	76%	84%	−8
Over 3.5 goals	30%	44%	−14
Beerschot VA or draw	75%	85%	−10
Beerschot VA clean sheet	34%	–	–
Liège clean sheet	19%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 10 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 11.1%

0123450 5.7 7.4 3.7 1 11.1 10.7 6.2 2.3 2 8.8 9.5 5.2 3 5.0 5.4 2.9 4 2.1 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Beerschot VA down, Liège across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,095 Challenger Pro League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Challenger Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.4% of games this season, across 44 played.

Head to head

4 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 3 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Beerschot VA at home: 3.00 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Liège away: 1.17 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.69 goals for Beerschot VA, 1.10 for Liège. Most likely score 1–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 19:01. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 4

~~Both scored~~1 of 4

~~Last meetings~~LIE 0–1 BEE · BEE 3–0 LIE · LIE 1–4 BEE · BEE 3–0 LIE

Form · last six in Challenger Pro League

BEERSCHOT VA

WLWWWW4–0 · 0–2 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 3–1 · 1–0

LIÈGE

LWLDDL1–2 · 3–2 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 4–4 · 1–3

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dender	7	+9	18
2	AS Eupen	6	+8	15
3	Beerschot VA	6	+8	15
4	Francs Borains	5	+5	12
5	Excelsior Virton	5	+6	10
6	Lokeren-Temse	6	+2	10
7	Sporting Hasselt	6	−3	9
8	Club Brugge II	6	−2	8
9	KRC Genk II	6	−2	7
10	Liège	6	−3	5
11	KAA Gent II	5	−3	5
12	K. Lierse S.K.	5	−4	5
13	Patro Eisden	6	−5	3
14	Seraing United	6	−6	2
15	RSC Anderlecht II	7	−10	1