AS Eupen v Beerschot VA prediction · Challenger Pro League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

AS EupenDrawBeerschot VA

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 15:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Beerschot VA 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Beerschot VA are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: AS Eupen 32%, draw 25%, Beerschot VA 43%. Over 2.5 goals 49%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on AS Eupen v Beerschot VABefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

AS Eupen win32%

Draw25%

Beerschot VA win43%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 8

VenueKehrweg Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

AS Eupen

Beerschot VA

7Days since last match7

Last match: 18 Oct · the Belgian Cup

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · beerschot va winFirst published 19 Oct 01:37 · locked at kick-off

43% The market42%

Us43%

~~Market~~42%

We make Beerschot VA a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 42%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.2–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · AS Eupen v Beerschot VA~~1.20 – 1.44

~~Form · last six in Challenger Pro League this season · since 15 Aug~~W5 D0 L1 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 15 v 18~~3 v 1

~~The market · Beerschot VA win~~42% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Beerschot VA win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 43% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 42% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
AS Eupen win	32%	32%	0
Draw	25%	27%	−2
Beerschot VA win	43%	42%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	49%	58%	−9
Both teams to score	52%	61%	−9
Over 1.5 goals	73%	79%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	27%	38%	−11
AS Eupen or draw	57%	58%	−1
AS Eupen clean sheet	24%	–	–
Beerschot VA clean sheet	30%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 9 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.6%

0123450 6.6 10.9 7.4 3.6 1 9.2 11.6 8.8 4.2 2 5.1 7.3 5.3 2.5 3 2.1 3.0 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+AS Eupen down, Beerschot VA across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from the goals and expected goals of 1,103 Challenger Pro League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Challenger Pro League matches have gone over 2.5 in 61.5% of games this season, across 52 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 4 previous meetings since 2021/22 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 4 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

AS Eupen at home: 2.33 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Beerschot VA away: 1.67 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.20 goals for AS Eupen, 1.44 for Beerschot VA. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021/22

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 4

~~Both scored~~2 of 4

~~Last meetings~~ASE 3–3 BEE · BEE 1–1 ASE · ASE 1–0 BEE · BEE 0–3 ASE

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Challenger Pro League this season · since 15 Aug

AS EUPEN

WLWWWW4–1 · 1–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–1 · 2–0

BEERSCHOT VA

LWWWWW0–2 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 3–1 · 1–0 · 5–1

The table

2026/27

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Beerschot VA	7	+12	18
2	Dender	7	+9	18
3	AS Eupen	6	+8	15
4	Francs Borains	6	+2	12
5	Sporting Hasselt	7	−2	12
6	Excelsior Virton	6	+5	10
7	Lokeren-Temse	6	+2	10
8	K. Lierse S.K.	6	−1	8
9	Club Brugge II	6	−2	8
10	KAA Gent II	6	−2	8
11	KRC Genk II	7	−3	7
12	Patro Eisden	7	−4	6
13	Liège	7	−7	5
14	Seraing United	7	−7	2
15	RSC Anderlecht II	7	−10	1