Torpedo Zhodino v Naftan prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 18:30

Torpedo Zhodino 1–0 Naftan TORPEDO ZHODINO WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Torpedo Zhodino win~~66%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.173

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.233

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 20 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Torpedo Zhodino win at 66%.
1′Much as we predicted: Torpedo Zhodino was 66% before kick-off and our model makes it 66% now. 0–0 · 66–19–15
1′KICK-OFF Torpedo Zhodino v Naftan
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Torpedo Zhodino win: 66% at kick-off, 56% now
39′We said Torpedo Zhodino at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 54%. 0–0 · 54–30–16
40′🟨 YELLOW · 40' Naftan
45′HALF-TIME Torpedo Zhodino 0–0 Naftan
46′SECOND HALF Torpedo Zhodino 0–0 Naftan
49′We said Torpedo Zhodino at 66%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–35–16
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Torpedo Zhodino win: 66% at kick-off, 46% now
55′We expected about 3.2 goals. There have been none, and the clock is running down. 0–0 · 46–39–15
57′We published Torpedo Zhodino at 66%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–12–2
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Torpedo Zhodino 1–0 Naftan
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Torpedo Zhodino win: 66% at kick-off, 85% now
58′Aleksandr Lomovitskiy scores for Torpedo Zhodino on 57′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 85–12–2
59′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 59' Torpedo Zhodino win: 66% at kick-off, 86% now
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Torpedo Zhodino · On: Timofey Sharkovskiy · Off: Artem Bykov
64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Torpedo Zhodino · On: Grigoriy Martyanov · Off: Grenik Petrosyan
67′🟨 YELLOW · 66' Aleksey Zaleskiy · Torpedo Zhodino
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Naftan · On: Timur Galimzyanov · Off: Marlen Aymanov
71′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Naftan · On: ignat pranovich · Off: Artem Drabatovich
75′We published Torpedo Zhodino at 66%. Our model now makes it 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–1
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Torpedo Zhodino · On: Dmitriy Yusov · Off: Aleksandr Frantsuzov
84′We published Torpedo Zhodino at 66%. Our model now makes it 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Torpedo Zhodino win: 66% at kick-off, 96% now
89′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Naftan · On: Artem Voskoboynikov · Off: Andrei Lebedev
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Aleksandr Lomovitskiy · Torpedo Zhodino
92′SUBSTITUTION · 90+1' Torpedo Zhodino · On: Great Nnaji Agbo · Off: Aleksandr Lomovitskiy
FTFULL TIME Torpedo Zhodino 1–0 Naftan
FTTorpedo Zhodino 1–0 Naftan · Torpedo Zhodino win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Torpedo Zhodino are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Torpedo Zhodino 66%, draw 19%, Naftan 15%. Over 2.5 goals 61%, both teams to score 53%.

The AI’s read on Torpedo Zhodino v NaftanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Torpedo Zhodino win66%

Draw19%

Naftan win15%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueTorpedo Stadium

Line-ups

Torpedo Zhodino

4-3-3

Naftan

5-4-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Torpedo Zhodino

Naftan

4Days since last match9

Last match: 15 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Torpedo Zhodino	24	−2	30
16	Naftan	24	−31	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Torpedo Zhodino

4-3-3

25 T. Yurasov

30 V. Pobudey

3 Yevhen Chagovets

13 A. Zaleskiy

96 V. Melko

68 D. Zhulpa

6 K. Premudrov

7 A. Bykov

11 A. Lomovitskiy

89 A. Frantsuzov

9 G. Petrosyan

Coach · Denis Karolik

Substitutes

16 · N. Agbo

66 · A. Ageev

27 · M. Gaevoy

20 · G. Martjanov

99 · M. Maslennikov

90 · N. Matusevich

47 · V. Nalivayko

10 · T. Sharkovskiy

28 · D. Yusov

15 · R. Zheleznyi

Naftan

5-4-1

16 D. Sadovskiy

97 V. Chernyavskiy

8 A. Stefanishin

5 Andrey Lebedev

69 Roman khadzhiev

9 V. Yakovlev

88 A. Drabatovich

50 G. Mafwenta

24 I. Seleznev

10 A. Savitskiy

30 Marlen Aymanov

Coach · Aleksandr Khrapkovskiy

Substitutes

14 · I. Chmut

22 · V. Fezhenko

57 · T. Galimzyanov

13 · A. Kharitonovich

21 · K. Kirkitskiy

20 · E. Leshchenok

11 · I. Pranovich

25 · Jorge Garcia de la Torre Armas

7 · A. Tumanov

94 · A. Voskoboynikov

Our number · torpedo zhodino winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 16 Oct 00:06 · locked at kick-off

66% The market61%

Us66%

~~Market~~61%

We make Torpedo Zhodino a 66% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are 5 points more confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Torpedo Zhodino v Naftan~~2.23 – 0.94

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 30 v 17~~9 v 16

~~The market · Torpedo Zhodino win~~61% · ours 66%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Torpedo Zhodino win The market, margin stripped

Published at 67%, 66% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 61% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Torpedo Zhodino win	66%	61%	+5
Draw	19%	23%	−4
Naftan win	15%	16%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	61%	53%	+8
Both teams to score	53%	50%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	82%	76%	+6
Over 3.5 goals	39%	33%	+6
Torpedo Zhodino or draw	85%	84%	+1
Torpedo Zhodino clean sheet	40%	–	–
Naftan clean sheet	11%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 10.3%

0123450 4.4 4.3 1 9.7 8.6 4.1 2 10.3 9.5 4.4 3 7.6 6.9 3.3 4 4.3 3.9 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Torpedo Zhodino down, Naftan across0–5 goals a side shown (96.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,361 Premier League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.1% of games this season, across 195 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.43 goals a meeting; 5 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Torpedo Zhodino at home: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded a game (last 6). Naftan away: 1.17 scored, 3.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.23 goals for Torpedo Zhodino, 0.94 for Naftan. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 15:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.43

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~NAF 0–4 TOR · TOR 4–2 NAF · NAF 0–3 TOR · NAF 1–1 TOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

TORPEDO ZHODINO

WLLLWL4–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–6 · 1–0 · 0–2

NAFTAN

LLLDWW0–2 · 1–5 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 4–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ML Vitebsk	24	+32	53
2	FC Isloch Minsk R.	24	+21	49
3	Dinamo Minsk	23	+24	49
4	Dinamo Brest	25	+16	44
5	Neman	25	+10	43
6	FC Vitebsk	25	+8	40
7	FC Gomel	25	+11	40
8	FC Minsk	25	−1	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	24	−2	30
10	Slavia Mozyr	24	−6	25
11	Baranovichi	25	−18	25
12	Arsenal	24	−18	23
13	Bate Borisov	25	−13	21
14	Belshina	23	−17	21
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	25	−16	19
16	Naftan	24	−31	17