Slavia Mozyr v Torpedo Zhodino prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Slavia MozyrDrawTorpedo Zhodino

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Slavia Mozyr 39%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Slavia Mozyr are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Slavia Mozyr 39%, draw 27%, Torpedo Zhodino 34%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on Slavia Mozyr v Torpedo ZhodinoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Slavia Mozyr win39%

Draw27%

Torpedo Zhodino win34%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 26

VenueYunost Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Slavia Mozyr

Torpedo Zhodino

6Days since last match6

Last match: 19 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
9	Torpedo Zhodino	25	−1	33
10	Slavia Mozyr	25	−4	28

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · slavia mozyr winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 00:10 · locked at kick-off

39% The market37%

Us39%

~~Market~~37%

We make Slavia Mozyr a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Slavia Mozyr v Torpedo Zhodino~~1.26 – 1.16

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 4 Sept~~W2 D0 L4 · W2 D0 L4

~~Table places · points 28 v 33~~10 v 9

~~The market · Slavia Mozyr win~~37% · ours 39%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Slavia Mozyr win The market, margin stripped

Published at 38%, 39% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 37% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Slavia Mozyr win	39%	37%	+2
Draw	27%	30%	−3
Torpedo Zhodino win	34%	32%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	43%	44%	−1
Both teams to score	48%	50%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	69%	68%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	23%	24%	−1
Slavia Mozyr or draw	66%	68%	−2
Slavia Mozyr clean sheet	32%	–	–
Torpedo Zhodino clean sheet	29%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%

0123450 8.9 10.7 6.0 2.4 1 11.5 12.4 7.3 2.9 2 7.0 7.9 4.6 3 3.0 3.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Slavia Mozyr down, Torpedo Zhodino across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,369 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 203 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.10 goals a meeting; 3 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Slavia Mozyr at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Torpedo Zhodino away: 0.83 scored, 2.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.26 goals for Slavia Mozyr, 1.16 for Torpedo Zhodino. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.10

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 10

~~Both scored~~4 of 10

~~Last meetings~~TOR 1–1 SLA · TOR 3–2 SLA · SLA 1–0 TOR · SLA 0–2 TOR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 4 Sept

SLAVIA MOZYR

WLLLLW3–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 1–3 · 4–2

TORPEDO ZHODINO

LLLWLW1–2 · 0–1 · 0–6 · 1–0 · 0–2 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ML Vitebsk	25	+34	56
2	Dinamo Minsk	25	+27	55
3	FC Isloch Minsk R.	25	+27	52
4	Dinamo Brest	25	+16	44
5	Neman	25	+10	43
6	FC Vitebsk	26	+6	40
7	FC Gomel	26	+10	40
8	FC Minsk	26	−3	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	25	−1	33
10	Slavia Mozyr	25	−4	28
11	Baranovichi	26	−16	28
12	Belshina	25	−18	24
13	Arsenal	25	−20	23
14	Bate Borisov	26	−14	21
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	25	−16	19
16	Naftan	26	−38	17