Neman v Dinamo Brest prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

NemanDrawDinamo Brest

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 13:30

Before kick-off · Match result · Neman 43%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Neman are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Neman 43%, draw 27%, Dinamo Brest 30%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Neman v Dinamo BrestBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Neman win43%

Draw27%

Dinamo Brest win30%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 26

VenueNeman Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Neman

Dinamo Brest

7Days since last match8

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	Dinamo Brest	25	+16	44
5	Neman	25	+10	43

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · neman winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

43% The market40%

Us43%

~~Market~~40%

We make Neman a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 40%. We are 3 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Neman v Dinamo Brest~~1.31 – 1.06

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W4 D1 L1

~~Table places · points 43 v 44~~5 v 4

~~The market · Neman win~~40% · ours 43%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Neman win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 40% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Neman win	43%	40%	+3
Draw	27%	28%	−1
Dinamo Brest win	30%	32%	−2
Over 2.5 goals	42%	50%	−8
Both teams to score	47%	55%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	68%	72%	−4
Over 3.5 goals	22%	30%	−8
Neman or draw	70%	68%	+2
Neman clean sheet	35%	–	–
Dinamo Brest clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.6%

0123450 9.4 10.2 5.3 1 12.6 12.4 6.7 2.4 2 8.0 8.3 4.4 3 3.6 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Neman down, Dinamo Brest across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,365 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 199 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.80 goals a meeting; 6 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Neman at home: 1.33 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Brest away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Neman, 1.06 for Dinamo Brest. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 10

~~Both scored~~6 of 10

~~Last meetings~~DIN 1–3 NEM · DIN 2–0 NEM · NEM 0–1 DIN · DIN 2–2 NEM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

NEMAN

DWWWWL2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–0 · 0–1

DINAMO BREST

LWWWWD1–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 1–0 · 2–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Minsk	25	+27	55
2	ML Vitebsk	24	+32	53
3	FC Isloch Minsk R.	24	+21	49
4	Dinamo Brest	25	+16	44
5	Neman	25	+10	43
6	FC Vitebsk	25	+8	40
7	FC Gomel	26	+10	40
8	FC Minsk	26	−3	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	25	−1	33
10	Slavia Mozyr	25	−4	28
11	Baranovichi	26	−16	28
12	Arsenal	25	−20	23
13	Bate Borisov	25	−13	21
14	Belshina	24	−19	21
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	25	−16	19
16	Naftan	25	−32	17