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Neman v Baranovichi

Neman

3–0Full time

Baranovichi

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Neman Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 20:02

Neman 3–0 Baranovichi NEMAN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Neman win~~60%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.247

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay5 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Neman win at 60%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Neman 60% before kick-off, 59% now. 0–0 · 59–24–17
3′KICK-OFF Neman v Baranovichi
7′Little has changed for our model: Neman 60% before kick-off, 58% now. 0–0 · 58–25–17
16′⚽ GOAL · 16' Neman 0–0 Baranovichi
25′A goal for Neman on 16′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 53–30–17
31′A goal for Neman on 16′ — 0–0. 0–0 · 51–32–17
41′⚽ GOAL · 41' Neman 1–0 Baranovichi
45′Sergei Pushnyakov scores for Neman on 41′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 84–13–3
45′HALF-TIME Neman 1–0 Baranovichi
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' Neman win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' Neman win: 60% at kick-off, 51% now
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Baranovichi · On: E. Torekul · Off: Mikhail Bondarenko Corrected
48′SECOND HALF Neman 1–0 Baranovichi
53′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 53' Neman win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 54' Neman win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Neman win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
56′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 56' Neman win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
57′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 57' Neman win: 60% at kick-off, 84% now
63′⚽ GOAL · 64' Neman 2–0 Baranovichi · Sergei Pushnyakov
63′SECOND HALF Neman 2–0 Baranovichi
64′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Vladislav Karpenya · Baranovichi
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Baranovichi · On: Vadim Balbukh · Off: Zakhar Gitselev Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' Neman · On: Andrey Yakimov · Off: Danu Spătaru Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Neman · On: Anton Suchkov · Off: Sergei Pushnyakov Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Neman · On: Artur Nazarenko · Off: Ruslan Lisakovich Corrected
77′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Neman · On: Andrija Ratkovic · Off: Pavel Savitskiy Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Baranovichi · On: Alibi Tuzakbayev · Off: Valeriy·Potorocha Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Baranovichi · On: Maksym·Shevchenko · Off: Martin Artyukh Corrected
87′⚽ GOAL · 87' Neman 3–0 Baranovichi · Sergei Pushnyakov
87′⚽ GOAL · 85' Neman 3–0 Baranovichi · Oleg Evdokimov
87′🟨 YELLOW · 88' Sherif Jimoh · Neman
88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' Neman · On: Andrey Vasiljev · Off: Oleg Evdokimov Corrected
FTFULL TIME Neman 3–0 Baranovichi
FTNeman 3–0 Baranovichi · Neman win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Neman win60%

Draw23%

Baranovichi win17%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Neman Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Neman

4-2-3-1

16 N. Matysyuk

55 D. Girs

14 S. Jimoh

20 I. Sadovnichiy

8 Y. Pantya

10 R. Lisakovich

47 M. Kozlov

15 O. Evdokimov

9 S. Pushnyakov

33 D. Spataru

88 P. Savitskiy

Coach · Igor Kovalevich

Substitutes

19 · A. Dayneko

18 · M. Kravtsov

1 · A. Malievskiy

6 · A. Nazarenko

32 · Y. Pavlyukovets

7 · A. Ratkovic

17 · A. Suchkov

4 · A. Vasiljev

24 · A. Yakimov

52 · M. Aleksandrov

Baranovichi

4-2-3-1

12 D. Shapko

97 T. Tkachev

4 V. Karpenya

19 A. Bruy

33 K. Muzychenko

88 Z. Gitselev

9 E. Lapun

10 F. Lebedev

96 V. Potorocha

22 M. Bondarenko

77 M. Artyukh

Coach · Roman Kirenkin

Substitutes

8 · V. Balbukh

93 · A. Dresmanis

5 · V. Fedotov

2 · S. Kendysh

29 · S. Penchuk

34 · A. Petrenko

17 · M. Shevchenko

45 · E. Torekul

6 · A. Tuzakbaev

23 · V. Vasilenko

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Neman

4-2-3-1

16 N. Matysyuk

55 D. Girs

14 S. Jimoh

20 I. Sadovnichiy

8 Y. Pantya

10 R. Lisakovich

47 M. Kozlov

15 O. Evdokimov

9 S. Pushnyakov

33 D. Spataru

88 P. Savitskiy

Coach · Igor Kovalevich

Substitutes

19 · A. Dayneko

18 · M. Kravtsov

1 · A. Malievskiy

6 · A. Nazarenko

32 · Y. Pavlyukovets

7 · A. Ratkovic

17 · A. Suchkov

4 · A. Vasiljev

24 · A. Yakimov

52 · M. Aleksandrov

Baranovichi

4-2-3-1

12 D. Shapko

97 T. Tkachev

4 V. Karpenya

19 A. Bruy

33 K. Muzychenko

88 Z. Gitselev

9 E. Lapun

10 F. Lebedev

96 V. Potorocha

22 M. Bondarenko

77 M. Artyukh

Coach · Roman Kirenkin

Substitutes

8 · V. Balbukh

93 · A. Dresmanis

5 · V. Fedotov

2 · S. Kendysh

29 · S. Penchuk

34 · A. Petrenko

17 · M. Shevchenko

45 · E. Torekul

6 · A. Tuzakbaev

23 · V. Vasilenko

Our number · neman winPublished 10 Oct 17:01

60% The market–

Us60%

We make Neman a 60% chance to win. The model expects 1.7–0.8, and 1–0 is the single most likely score at 14%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Neman win	60%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Baranovichi win	17%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	46%	–	–
Both teams to score	44%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	71%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	25%	–	–
Neman or draw	83%	–	–
Neman clean sheet	46%	–	–
Baranovichi clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.1%

0123450 8.3 6.6 2.6 1 14.1 10.6 4.3 2 11.9 9.1 3.6 3 6.9 5.3 2.1 4 3.1 2.4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Neman down, Baranovichi across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,346 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.9% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

1 previous meetings, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Neman at home: 1.00 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Baranovichi away: 0.83 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.73 goals for Neman, 0.79 for Baranovichi. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2026

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BAR 1–2 NEM

Form · last six in Premier League

NEMAN

WWWDWW2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1

BARANOVICHI

LDWWDL0–2 · 1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Isloch Minsk R.	22	+19	45
2	ML Vitebsk	21	+25	44
3	Dinamo Minsk	21	+21	43
4	Dinamo Brest	24	+16	43
5	FC Gomel	23	+15	39
6	Neman	22	+6	37
7	FC Vitebsk	23	+7	36
8	FC Minsk	23	+2	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	22	−1	27
10	Slavia Mozyr	22	−3	25
11	Baranovichi	23	−14	25
12	Arsenal	24	−18	23
13	Belshina	22	−14	21
14	Bate Borisov	22	−11	18
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	23	−16	16
16	Naftan	23	−34	14