Naftan v FC Isloch Minsk R. prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 15:38

Naftan 0–6 FC Isloch Minsk R. FC ISLOCH MINSK R. WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–2 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Isloch Minsk R. win~~65%

~~The market said~~66%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.180

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.180

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 28 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Isloch Minsk R. win at 65%.
2′Little has changed for our model: FC Isloch Minsk R. 65% before kick-off, 65% now. 0–0 · 16–19–65
2′KICK-OFF Naftan v FC Isloch Minsk R.
6′We said FC Isloch Minsk R. at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 84%. 0–1 · 5–11–84
6′⚽ GOAL · 6' Naftan 0–1 FC Isloch Minsk R.
6′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 6' FC Isloch Minsk R. win: 65% at kick-off, 84% now
7′FC Isloch Minsk R. find the net on 5′. 0–1. 0–1 · 5–11–84
21′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Andrei Lebedev · Naftan
28′We said FC Isloch Minsk R. at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 96%. 0–2 · 1–3–96
28′⚽ GOAL · 28' Naftan 0–2 FC Isloch Minsk R.
28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' FC Isloch Minsk R. win: 65% at kick-off, 96% now
29′Evgeni Yudchits scores for FC Isloch Minsk R. on 27′ — 0–2. 0–2 · 1–3–96
45′HALF-TIME Naftan 0–2 FC Isloch Minsk R.
45′🟨 YELLOW · 32' Roman khadzhiev · Naftan
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Isloch Minsk R. · On: Anton Shramchenko · Off: Timofey Martynov
45′SUBSTITUTION · 46' Naftan · On: Artem Drabatovich · Off: Ilya Seleznev
46′SECOND HALF Naftan 0–2 FC Isloch Minsk R.
47′The goal count is tracking the 3.1 we expected. 0–2 · 0–3–97
50′49′: Aleksandr Svirepa on the scoresheet for FC Isloch Minsk R., making it 0–3. 0–3 · 0–0–100
50′⚽ GOAL · 49' Naftan 0–3 FC Isloch Minsk R. · Aleksandr Svirepa (penalty)
51′We said FC Isloch Minsk R. at 65% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 0–3 · 0–0–100
54′🟨 YELLOW · 53' Anton Shramchenko · FC Isloch Minsk R.
61′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Maksim Kovalevich · FC Isloch Minsk R.
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Naftan · On: Artem Voskoboynikov · Off: alexander savitsky
66′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Naftan · On: Timur Galimzyanov · Off: Marlen Aymanov
67′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 0–4 · 0–0–100
67′⚽ GOAL · 67' Naftan 0–4 FC Isloch Minsk R.
68′FC Isloch Minsk R. ahead on 67′ through Anton Shramchenko. 0–4. 0–4 · 0–0–100
71′Nikita·Patsko scores for FC Isloch Minsk R. on 69′. 0–4 · 0–0–100
71′5 goals already, more than the 3.1 we expected for the whole match. 0–5 · 0–0–100
71′⚽ GOAL · 69' Naftan 0–5 FC Isloch Minsk R. · Nikita·Patsko (assist Aleksandr Svirepa)
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Naftan · On: Aleksey Tumanov · Off: Andrei Lebedev
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Naftan · On: Vladislav Fezhenko · Off: K. Adamovich
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Isloch Minsk R. · On: aleksandr butko · Off: Maksim Kovalevich
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' FC Isloch Minsk R. · On: Godfrey Bitok Stephen · Off: Nikita·Patsko
82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Isloch Minsk R. · On: sergi abramishvili · Off: Ilya Skrobotov
84′SUBSTITUTION · 79' FC Isloch Minsk R. · On: Pavel Shevchenko · Off: Sergey Volkov
85′🟨 YELLOW · 83' Denis Sadovsky · Naftan
91′That is 6, and we only asked for 3.1 across ninety minutes. 0–6 · 0–0–100
91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' Naftan 0–6 FC Isloch Minsk R.
92′90′: aleksandr butko on the scoresheet for FC Isloch Minsk R., making it 0–6. 0–6 · 0–0–100
92′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Pavel Shevchenko · FC Isloch Minsk R.
FTFULL TIME Naftan 0–6 FC Isloch Minsk R.
FTNaftan 0–6 FC Isloch Minsk R. · FC Isloch Minsk R. win: right · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–2 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Isloch Minsk R. are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Naftan 16%, draw 19%, FC Isloch Minsk R. 65%. Over 2.5 goals 59%, both teams to score 52%.

The AI’s read on Naftan v FC Isloch Minsk R.Before, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Naftan win16%

Draw19%

FC Isloch Minsk R. win65%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 26

VenueAtlant Stadium

Line-ups

Naftan

5-4-1

FC Isloch Minsk R.

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Naftan

FC Isloch Minsk R.

5Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	FC Isloch Minsk R.	24	+21	49
16	Naftan	25	−32	17

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Naftan

5-4-1

16 D. Sadovskiy

97 V. Chernyavskiy

69 Roman khadzhiev

5 Andrey Lebedev

8 Harby Angel Osorio

24 I. Seleznev

6 Kirill Adamovich

50 G. Mafwenta

10 A. Savitskiy

9 V. Yakovlev

30 Marlen Aimanov

Coach · Aleksandr Khrapkovskiy

Substitutes

88 · A. Drabatovich

22 · V. Fezhenko

57 · T. Galimzyanov

13 · A. Kharitonovich

21 · K. Kirkitskiy

20 · E. Leshchenok

11 · I. Pranovich

25 · Jorge Garcia de la Torre Armas

7 · A. Tumanov

94 · A. Voskoboynikov

FC Isloch Minsk R.

3-4-3

1 A. Klimovich

25 A. Makarenko

3 I. Tikhomirov

33 I. Skrobotov

15 N. Patsko

5 S. Volkov

7 A. Svirepa

99 E. Yudchits

23 M. Kovalevich

19 Adeola Olaleye

11 T. Martynov

Coach · D. Komarovskiy

Substitutes

17 · S. Abramishvili

88 · Nikita Fadeev

70 · A. Butko

10 · V. Khvashchinskiy

8 · A. Shramchenko

74 · M. Sachkovskiy

22 · Pavel shauchenka

13 · G. Stephen

28 · A. Svirskiy

Our number · fc isloch minsk r. winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 03:46 · locked at kick-off

65% The market66%

Us65%

~~Market~~66%

We make FC Isloch Minsk R. a 65% chance to win. The market has them at 66%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 0.9–2.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Naftan v FC Isloch Minsk R.~~0.91 – 2.17

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 2 Sept~~W2 D1 L3 · W3 D2 L1

~~Table places · points 17 v 49~~16 v 3

~~The market · FC Isloch Minsk R. win~~66% · ours 65%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Isloch Minsk R. win The market, margin stripped

Published at 66%, 65% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 66% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Naftan win	16%	13%	+3
Draw	19%	21%	−2
FC Isloch Minsk R. win	65%	66%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	59%	56%	+3
Both teams to score	52%	50%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	80%	78%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	37%	35%	+2
Naftan or draw	35%	34%	+1
Naftan clean sheet	12%	–	–
FC Isloch Minsk R. clean sheet	41%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–2 at 10.5%

0123450 4.7 10.2 10.5 7.6 4.3 2.01 4.7 8.9 9.4 6.7 3.7 2 2.1 4.2 4.3 3.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Naftan down, FC Isloch Minsk R. across0–5 goals a side shown (96.9% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,365 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 199 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.43 goals a meeting; 6 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Naftan at home: 1.67 scored, 1.67 conceded a game (last 6). FC Isloch Minsk R. away: 1.67 scored, 0.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.91 goals for Naftan, 2.17 for FC Isloch Minsk R.. Most likely score 0–2.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.43

~~Over 2.5~~6 of 7

~~Both scored~~4 of 7

~~Last meetings~~FCI 3–1 NAF · NAF 2–2 FCI · FCI 3–0 NAF · FCI 3–0 NAF

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 2 Sept

NAFTAN

LLDWWL1–5 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 4–1 · 0–1

FC ISLOCH MINSK R.

WDWLDW2–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 0–0 · 4–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ML Vitebsk	24	+32	53
2	Dinamo Minsk	24	+26	52
3	FC Isloch Minsk R.	24	+21	49
4	Dinamo Brest	25	+16	44
5	Neman	25	+10	43
6	FC Vitebsk	25	+8	40
7	FC Gomel	25	+11	40
8	FC Minsk	26	−3	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	25	−1	33
10	Slavia Mozyr	25	−4	28
11	Baranovichi	26	−16	28
12	Arsenal	25	−20	23
13	Bate Borisov	25	−13	21
14	Belshina	24	−19	21
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	25	−16	19
16	Naftan	25	−32	17