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Naftan v Belshina

Naftan

4–1Full time

Belshina

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Atlant Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 15:38

Naftan 4–1 Belshina BELSHINA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Belshina win~~39%

~~The market said~~37%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.610

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.637

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 29 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Belshina win at 39%.
4′Much as we predicted: Belshina was 39% before kick-off and our model makes it 39% now. 0–0 · 36–25–39
4′KICK-OFF Naftan v Belshina
6′⚽ GOAL · 5' Naftan 0–0 Belshina
7′⚽ GOAL · 7' Naftan 0–1 Belshina · vladislav davydov
23′Belshina ahead on 5′ through vladislav davydov. 0–1. 0–1 · 14–21–66
23′🟨 YELLOW · 23' K. Adamovich · Naftan
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 23' Belshina win: 39% at kick-off, 66% now
44′We published Belshina at 39%. Our model now makes it 69%. 0–1 · 9–21–69
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 44' Belshina win: 39% at kick-off, 69% now
45′HALF-TIME Naftan 0–1 Belshina
46′We published Belshina at 39%. Our model now makes it 70%. 0–1 · 9–21–70
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Naftan · On: alexander savitsky · Off: Artem Voskoboynikov Corrected
46′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Naftan · On: Marlen Aymanov · Off: Timur Galimzyanov Corrected
46′SECOND HALF Naftan 0–1 Belshina
57′⚽ GOAL · 57' Naftan 0–1 Belshina · vadim yakovlev
58′⚽ GOAL · 58' Naftan 1–1 Belshina · vadim yakovlev
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Belshina · On: V Kovalev · Off: luka zgurskiy Corrected
61′SUBSTITUTION · 59' Belshina · On: Pavel Seleznev · Off: alexander shvedchikov Corrected
70′vadim yakovlev scores for Naftan on 56′ — 1–1. 1–1 · 21–57–22
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Belshina win: 39% at kick-off, 22% now
70′THE CALL SWINGS · 70' Draw is now our likeliest result at 57% (was Belshina win 22%)
71′⚽ GOAL · 71' Naftan 2–1 Belshina · vadim yakovlev
72′⚽ GOAL · 69' Naftan 2–1 Belshina · vadim yakovlev (assist Roman khadzhiev)
72′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Belshina · On: Nikita Nekrasov · Off: Yuri Kozlov Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 76' Naftan · On: Artem Drabatovich · Off: vadim yakovlev Corrected
80′🟨 YELLOW · 78' A. Stefanishin · Naftan
82′🟨 YELLOW · 79' Roman khadzhiev · Naftan
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Belshina · On: Gleb Yakushevich · Off: Nikita Golub Corrected
87′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Belshina · On: Nikita Sokolovskiy · Off: vladislav davydov Corrected
89′69′ and it is 2–1: vadim yakovlev on the scoresheet for Naftan. 2–1 · 98–2–0
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Belshina win: 39% at kick-off, 0% now
89′THE CALL SWINGS · 89' Naftan win is now our likeliest result at 98% (was Draw 2%)
90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' Naftan · On: Vladislav Fezhenko · Off: K. Adamovich Corrected
90′⚽ GOAL · 93' Naftan 3–1 Belshina · Marlen Aymanov (assist G. Mafwenta)
FTFULL TIME Naftan 4–1 Belshina
FTNaftan 4–1 Belshina · Belshina win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Naftan win37%

Draw24%

Belshina win39%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 13:00

Venue · Atlant Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Naftan

3-5-2

16 D. Sadovskiy

8 A. Stefanishin

5 A. Lebedev

69 R. Khadzhiev

97 V. Chernyavskiy

50 G. Mafwenta

6 K. Adamovich

24 I. Seleznev

9 V. Yakovlev

57 T. Galimzyanov

94 A. Voskoboynikov

Coach · Aleksandr Khrapkovski

Substitutes

13 · A. Kharitonovich

7 · A. Tumanov

10 · A. Savitskiy

14 · I. Chmut

20 · E. Leshchenok

21 · K. Kirkitskiy

22 · V. Fezhenko

25 · S. Matvey

30 · M. Aymanov

88 · A. Drabatovich

Belshina

3-5-2

31 P. Prishivalko

3 A. Kuchinskiy

6 D. Lazarev

17 I. Vikhrov

14 V. Davydov

8 V. Rusenchik

10 Y. Kozlov

21 N. Golub

27 L. Zgurskiy

9 A. Shvedchikov

7 A. Achapovskiy

Coach · Aleksandr Volodko

Substitutes

25 · A. Makhmudov

54 · N. Patsenko

5 · P. Seleznev

15 · K. Malykh

18 · N. Nekrasov

19 · N. Sokolovskiy

44 · D. Malashkevich

77 · V. Kovalev

78 · G. Yakushevich

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Naftan

3-5-2

16 D. Sadovskiy

8 A. Stefanishin

5 A. Lebedev

69 R. Khadzhiev

97 V. Chernyavskiy

50 G. Mafwenta

6 K. Adamovich

24 I. Seleznev

9 V. Yakovlev

57 T. Galimzyanov

94 A. Voskoboynikov

Coach · Aleksandr Khrapkovski

Substitutes

13 · A. Kharitonovich

7 · A. Tumanov

10 · A. Savitskiy

14 · I. Chmut

20 · E. Leshchenok

21 · K. Kirkitskiy

22 · V. Fezhenko

25 · S. Matvey

30 · M. Aymanov

88 · A. Drabatovich

Belshina

3-5-2

31 P. Prishivalko

3 A. Kuchinskiy

6 D. Lazarev

17 I. Vikhrov

14 V. Davydov

8 V. Rusenchik

10 Y. Kozlov

21 N. Golub

27 L. Zgurskiy

9 A. Shvedchikov

7 A. Achapovskiy

Coach · Aleksandr Volodko

Substitutes

25 · A. Makhmudov

54 · N. Patsenko

5 · P. Seleznev

15 · K. Malykh

18 · N. Nekrasov

19 · N. Sokolovskiy

44 · D. Malashkevich

77 · V. Kovalev

78 · G. Yakushevich

Our number · belshina winPublished 10 Oct 13:12

39% The market37%

Us39%

~~Market~~37%

We make Belshina a 39% chance to win. The market has them at 37%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.5.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · belshina win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 43% to 38% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Naftan win	37%	35%	+2
Draw	24%	28%	−4
Belshina win	39%	37%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	57%	51%	+6
Both teams to score	59%	56%	+3
Over 1.5 goals	79%	74%	+5
Over 3.5 goals	35%	30%	+5
Naftan or draw	61%	63%	−2
Naftan clean sheet	23%	–	–
Belshina clean sheet	24%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 5.3 8.0 5.9 3.0 1 7.7 10.9 8.2 4.2 2 5.5 8.0 5.9 3.0 3 2.7 3.9 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Naftan down, Belshina across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,346 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.9% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

3 previous meetings, 3.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Naftan at home: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Belshina away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.46 goals for Naftan, 1.52 for Belshina. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 12:59. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2023

~~Goals a meeting~~3.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~BEL 5–1 NAF · BEL 0–3 NAF · NAF 0–1 BEL

Form · last six in Premier League

NAFTAN

LLLLDW0–2 · 0–2 · 1–5 · 0–3 · 2–2 · 1–0

BELSHINA

WLDDDW2–0 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 2–2 · 1–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Isloch Minsk R.	22	+19	45
2	ML Vitebsk	21	+25	44
3	Dinamo Minsk	21	+21	43
4	Dinamo Brest	24	+16	43
5	FC Gomel	23	+15	39
6	Neman	22	+6	37
7	FC Vitebsk	23	+7	36
8	FC Minsk	23	+2	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	22	−1	27
10	Slavia Mozyr	22	−3	25
11	Baranovichi	23	−14	25
12	Arsenal	24	−18	23
13	Belshina	22	−14	21
14	Bate Borisov	22	−11	18
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	23	−16	16
16	Naftan	23	−34	14