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ML Vitebsk v Torpedo Zhodino

ML Vitebsk
2–0Full time
Torpedo Zhodino

Premier League · THU 15 OCT · Tikhinichi Sportcomplex

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 21:00
ML Vitebsk 2–0 Torpedo Zhodino ML VITEBSK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said ML Vitebsk win60%
The market said72%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.246
The market’s Brier score0.125

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said ML Vitebsk win at 60%.
  2. 3′Much as we predicted: ML Vitebsk was 60% before kick-off and our model makes it 59% now. 0–0 · 59–23–18
  3. 3′KICK-OFF ML Vitebsk v Torpedo Zhodino
  4. 34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' ML Vitebsk win: 60% at kick-off, 50% now
  5. 39′We said ML Vitebsk at 60%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 48%. 0–0 · 48–34–17
  6. 39′GOAL DISALLOWED · 39' ML Vitebsk
  7. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' ML Vitebsk win: 60% at kick-off, 48% now
  8. 40′A goal for ML Vitebsk on 38′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 83–14–4
  9. 40′We published ML Vitebsk at 60%. Our model now makes it 83%. 1–0 · 83–14–4
  10. 40′⚽ GOAL · 38' ML Vitebsk 1–0 Torpedo Zhodino
  11. 40′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 40' ML Vitebsk win: 60% at kick-off, 83% now
  12. 40′⚽ GOAL · 40' ML Vitebsk 1–0 Torpedo Zhodino · Denilho Cleonise
  13. 41′Goals are coming at about the 2.7 we expected. 1–0 · 83–14–4
  14. 45′HALF-TIME ML Vitebsk 1–0 Torpedo Zhodino
  15. 47′SECOND HALF ML Vitebsk 1–0 Torpedo Zhodino
  16. 57′We published ML Vitebsk at 60%. Our model now makes it 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  17. 58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' ML Vitebsk · On: M. Bulanov · Off: Radivoj Bosić
  18. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Torpedo Zhodino · On: Grigoriy Martyanov · Off: Aleksandr Lomovitskiy
  19. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Torpedo Zhodino · On: Vladislav Nalivayko · Off: Timofey Sharkovskiy
  20. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' ML Vitebsk · On: Ode abdullahi · Off: Silas Gnaka
  21. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' ML Vitebsk · On: Valeri Gromyko · Off: Aleksandar Mesarovic
  22. 74′73′: Artem Kontsevoy on the scoresheet for ML Vitebsk, making it 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  23. 74′⚽ GOAL · 73' ML Vitebsk 2–0 Torpedo Zhodino · Artem Kontsevoy (assist Denilho Cleonise)
  24. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 74' ML Vitebsk win: 60% at kick-off, 99% now
  25. 75′We published ML Vitebsk at 60%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
  26. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Torpedo Zhodino · On: Dmitriy Yusov · Off: Aleksandr Frantsuzov
  27. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Torpedo Zhodino · On: Maxim Gaevoy · Off: Kirill Premudrov
  28. 78′We published ML Vitebsk at 60%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  29. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' ML Vitebsk win: 60% at kick-off, over 99% now
  30. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' ML Vitebsk · On: Timur Ivanov · Off: Artem Kontsevoy
  31. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' ML Vitebsk · On: Milad Mohammadi · Off: Denilho Cleonise
  32. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Torpedo Zhodino · On: Arseniy Ageev · Off: Artem Bykov
  33. FTFULL TIME ML Vitebsk 2–0 Torpedo Zhodino
  34. FTML Vitebsk 2–0 Torpedo Zhodino · ML Vitebsk win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ML Vitebsk are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ML Vitebsk 60%, draw 22%, Torpedo Zhodino 18%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on ML Vitebsk v Torpedo ZhodinoBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 13:28 · locked at kick-off

ML Vitebsk win60%
Draw22%
Torpedo Zhodino win18%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 18:30

RoundMatchday 16

VenueTikhinichi Sportcomplex

Line-ups

ML Vitebsk

4-3-3

Torpedo Zhodino

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ML Vitebsk

Torpedo Zhodino

4Days since last match5

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1ML Vitebsk22+2947
9Torpedo Zhodino23030

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

ML Vitebsk

4-3-3

1 P. Pavlyuchenko

22 Y. Skibskiy

20 Z. Volkov

6 K. Gomanov

45 I. Moskalenchik

8 S. Gnaka

15 V. Bocherov

27 A. Mesarović

10 D. Cleonise

80 A. Kontsevoy

12 R. Bosić

Coach · Juan Díaz

Substitutes

30 · Pavel Shcherbachenya

3 · N. Baranok

5 · M. Mohammadi

7 · T. Ivanov

4 · A. Ode

55 · V. Gromyko

23 · S. Balanovich

90 · I. Grudko

99 · M. Bulanov

Torpedo Zhodino

4-3-3

25 T. Yurasov

30 V. Pobudey

3 Yevhen Chagovets

13 A. Zaleskiy

96 V. Melko

68 D. Zhulpa

6 K. Premudrov

7 A. Bykov

11 A. Lomovitskiy

89 A. Frantsuzov

10 T. Sharkovskiy

Coach · Denis Karolik

Substitutes

47 · V. Nalivayko

28 · D. Yusov

9 · G. Petrosyan

27 · M. Gaevoy

14 · M. Ladutko

66 · A. Ageev

4 · V. Manaev

99 · M. Maslennikov

20 · G. Martjanov

Our number · ml vitebsk winFirst published 14 Oct 13:28 · locked at kick-off
60% The market72%
Us60%
Market72%

We make ML Vitebsk a 60% chance to win. The market has them at 72%. We are 12 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.8–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · ML Vitebsk v Torpedo Zhodino1.83 – 0.87
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 24 AugW3 D3 L0 · W2 D1 L3
Table places · points 47 v 301 v 9
The market · ML Vitebsk win72% · ours 60%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
55%60%65%70%75% 14 OCT 13:3315 OCT 18:04
Our probability · ML Vitebsk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 65% to 72% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
ML Vitebsk win60%72%−12
Draw22%19%+3
Torpedo Zhodino win18%9%+9
Over 2.5 goals50%50%0
Both teams to score48%37%+11
Over 1.5 goals74%72%+2
Over 3.5 goals29%30%−1
ML Vitebsk or draw82%91%−9
ML Vitebsk clean sheet42%––
Torpedo Zhodino clean sheet17%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 12.5%
0123450 7.0 6.2 2.6 1 12.5 10.4 4.6 2 11.1 9.4 4.1 3 6.7 5.7 2.5 4 3.2 2.7 5
under 2% 5% 12%+ML Vitebsk down, Torpedo Zhodino across0–5 goals a side shown (98.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting1.00
Over 2.50 of 5
Both scored1 of 5
Last meetingsTOR 0–1 MLV · MLV 0–1 TOR · MLV 0–1 TOR · TOR 1–1 MLV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 24 Aug

ML VITEBSK

WDDDWW3–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 5–1

TORPEDO ZHODINO

DWLLLW0–0 · 4–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–6 · 1–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1ML Vitebsk22+2947
2FC Isloch Minsk R.23+1946
3Dinamo Minsk22+2246
4Neman24+1143
5Dinamo Brest24+1643
6FC Gomel24+1139
7FC Vitebsk24+737
8FC Minsk24+134
9Torpedo Zhodino23030
10Slavia Mozyr23−425
11Baranovichi24−1725
12Arsenal24−1823
13Bate Borisov24−1221
14Belshina23−1721
15Naftan24−3117
16FC Dnepr Mogilev24−1716

The competition's standings before kick-off.