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ML Vitebsk v Neman
ML Vitebsk
NemanPremier League · SUN 18 OCT · Tikhinichi Sportcomplex
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said ML Vitebsk win at 52%.
- 2′Little has changed for our model: ML Vitebsk 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–26–22
- 2′KICK-OFF ML Vitebsk v Neman
- 27′Artem Kontsevoy scores for ML Vitebsk on 27′. 0–0 · 46–33–21
- 28′We said ML Vitebsk at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–16–5
- 28′⚽ GOAL · 27' ML Vitebsk 1–0 Neman · Artem Kontsevoy (assist Pavel Pavlyuchenko)
- 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' ML Vitebsk win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
- 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
- 37′We said ML Vitebsk at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
- 45′HALF-TIME ML Vitebsk 1–0 Neman
- 46′SECOND HALF ML Vitebsk 1–0 Neman
- 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' ML Vitebsk win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
- 56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' ML Vitebsk · On: Yan Skibsky · Off: Sergei Balanovich
- 56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' ML Vitebsk · On: Radivoj Bosić · Off: Denilho Cleonise
- 64′We said ML Vitebsk at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Neman · On: Anton Suchkov · Off: Danu Spătaru
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Neman · On: Andrija Ratkovic · Off: Pavel Savitskiy
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' ML Vitebsk · On: Silas Gnaka · Off: Aleksandar Mesarovic
- 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' ML Vitebsk · On: Timur Ivanov · Off: Valeri Gromyko
- 76′We said ML Vitebsk at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
- 78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Yuri Pantya · Neman
- 80′Neman are down to ten from 80′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 92–8–0
- 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' ML Vitebsk win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
- 80′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Yuri Pantya · Neman
- 82′🟥 RED CARD · 82' Igor Kovalevich · Neman
- 83′A second red card for Neman on 82′ — they are down to nine. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 94–6–0
- 84′We said ML Vitebsk at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
- 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Neman · On: alexey dayneka · Off: Andrey Yakimov
- 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Neman · On: Yuri Pavlyukovets · Off: Dmitri Girs
- 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' ML Vitebsk · On: M. Bulanov · Off: Artem Kontsevoy
- 91′We said ML Vitebsk at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
- 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' ML Vitebsk 2–0 Neman
- 93′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+3' ML Vitebsk
- FTFULL TIME ML Vitebsk 1–0 Neman
- FTML Vitebsk 1–0 Neman · ML Vitebsk win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
ML Vitebsk are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: ML Vitebsk 52%, draw 26%, Neman 22%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 45%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
ML Vitebsk win52%
Neman win22%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:00
RoundMatchday 25
VenueTikhinichi Sportcomplex
Match timeline
All events
ML VitebskMIN
NemanEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
ML Vitebsk
4-3-3
Neman
4-2-3-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
ML Vitebsk
Neman
Last match: 15 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)
Last match: 14 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
ML Vitebsk
4-3-3
1 P. Pavlyuchenko
23 S. Balanovich
20 Z. Volkov
6 K. Gomanov
45 I. Moskalenchik
55 V. Gromyko
4 A. Ode
15 V. Bocherov
10 D. Cleonise
80 A. Kontsevoy
27 A. Mesarović
Coach · Juan Díaz
Substitutes
90 · I. Grudko
8 · S. Gnaka
99 · M. Bulanov
12 · R. Bosić
3 · N. Baranok
5 · M. Mohammadi
30 · Pavel Shcherbachenya
7 · T. Ivanov
22 · Y. Skibskiy
Neman
4-2-3-1
16 N. Matysyuk
55 D. Girs
4 A. Vasiljev
20 I. Sadovnichiy
8 Y. Pantea
47 M. Kozlov
24 A. Yakimov
15 O. Evdokimov
9 S. Pushnyakov
33 D. Spătaru
88 P. Savitskiy
Coach · I. Kovalevich
Substitutes
19 · A. Dayneko
22 · I. Kirko
1 · A. Malievskiy
6 · A. Nazarenko
32 · Y. Pavlyukovets
7 · A. Ratković
2 · V. Tonkevich
23 · T. Yormie
17 · A. Suchkov
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
ML Vitebsk
4-3-3
1 P. Pavlyuchenko
23 S. Balanovich
20 Z. Volkov
6 K. Gomanov
45 I. Moskalenchik
55 V. Gromyko
4 A. Ode
15 V. Bocherov
10 D. Cleonise
80 A. Kontsevoy
27 A. Mesarović
Coach · Juan Díaz
Substitutes
90 · I. Grudko
8 · S. Gnaka
99 · M. Bulanov
12 · R. Bosić
3 · N. Baranok
5 · M. Mohammadi
30 · Pavel Shcherbachenya
7 · T. Ivanov
22 · Y. Skibskiy
Neman
4-2-3-1
16 N. Matysyuk
55 D. Girs
4 A. Vasiljev
20 I. Sadovnichiy
8 Y. Pantea
47 M. Kozlov
24 A. Yakimov
15 O. Evdokimov
9 S. Pushnyakov
33 D. Spătaru
88 P. Savitskiy
Coach · I. Kovalevich
Substitutes
19 · A. Dayneko
22 · I. Kirko
1 · A. Malievskiy
6 · A. Nazarenko
32 · Y. Pavlyukovets
7 · A. Ratković
2 · V. Tonkevich
23 · T. Yormie
17 · A. Suchkov
We make ML Vitebsk a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 51%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| ML Vitebsk win | 52% | 59% | −7 |
| Draw | 26% | 25% | +1 |
| Neman win | 22% | 16% | +6 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 45% | 45% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 70% | −1 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 25% | −3 |
| ML Vitebsk or draw | 78% | 84% | −6 |
| ML Vitebsk clean sheet | 42% | – | – |
| Neman clean sheet | 22% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
4 meetings since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug
ML VITEBSK
NEMAN
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 23 | +31 | 50 |
| 2 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 24 | +21 | 49 |
| 3 | Dinamo Minsk | 23 | +24 | 49 |
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 25 | +16 | 44 |
| 5 | Neman | 24 | +11 | 43 |
| 6 | FC Vitebsk | 25 | +8 | 40 |
| 7 | FC Gomel | 25 | +11 | 40 |
| 8 | FC Minsk | 25 | −1 | 34 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 24 | −2 | 30 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 24 | −6 | 25 |
| 11 | Baranovichi | 25 | −18 | 25 |
| 12 | Arsenal | 24 | −18 | 23 |
| 13 | Bate Borisov | 25 | −13 | 21 |
| 14 | Belshina | 23 | −17 | 21 |
| 15 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 25 | −16 | 19 |
| 16 | Naftan | 24 | −31 | 17 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Dinamo Minsk
Dinamo Brest
FC Vitebsk
FC Gomel
FC Minsk
Torpedo Zhodino
Slavia Mozyr
Baranovichi
Arsenal
Bate Borisov
Belshina
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Naftan