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Model 1.2

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ML Vitebsk v Neman

ML Vitebsk
1–0Full time
Neman

Premier League · SUN 18 OCT · Tikhinichi Sportcomplex

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 20:31
ML Vitebsk 1–0 Neman ML VITEBSK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said ML Vitebsk win52%
The market said59%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.343
The market’s Brier score0.261

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay11 notes · 22 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said ML Vitebsk win at 52%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: ML Vitebsk 52% before kick-off, 52% now. 0–0 · 52–26–22
  3. 2′KICK-OFF ML Vitebsk v Neman
  4. 27′Artem Kontsevoy scores for ML Vitebsk on 27′. 0–0 · 46–33–21
  5. 28′We said ML Vitebsk at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 79%. 1–0 · 79–16–5
  6. 28′⚽ GOAL · 27' ML Vitebsk 1–0 Neman · Artem Kontsevoy (assist Pavel Pavlyuchenko)
  7. 28′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 28' ML Vitebsk win: 52% at kick-off, 79% now
  8. 30′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 79–16–5
  9. 37′We said ML Vitebsk at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 1–0 · 80–16–5
  10. 45′HALF-TIME ML Vitebsk 1–0 Neman
  11. 46′SECOND HALF ML Vitebsk 1–0 Neman
  12. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' ML Vitebsk win: 52% at kick-off, 82% now
  13. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' ML Vitebsk · On: Yan Skibsky · Off: Sergei Balanovich
  14. 56′SUBSTITUTION · 56' ML Vitebsk · On: Radivoj Bosić · Off: Denilho Cleonise
  15. 64′We said ML Vitebsk at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–0 · 85–13–2
  16. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Neman · On: Anton Suchkov · Off: Danu Spătaru
  17. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Neman · On: Andrija Ratkovic · Off: Pavel Savitskiy
  18. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' ML Vitebsk · On: Silas Gnaka · Off: Aleksandar Mesarovic
  19. 69′SUBSTITUTION · 68' ML Vitebsk · On: Timur Ivanov · Off: Valeri Gromyko
  20. 76′We said ML Vitebsk at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–10–1
  21. 78′🟨 YELLOW · 78' Yuri Pantya · Neman
  22. 80′Neman are down to ten from 80′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 1–0 · 92–8–0
  23. 80′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 80' ML Vitebsk win: 52% at kick-off, 92% now
  24. 80′🟥 RED CARD · 80' Yuri Pantya · Neman
  25. 82′🟥 RED CARD · 82' Igor Kovalevich · Neman
  26. 83′A second red card for Neman on 82′ — they are down to nine. The model does not price cards, so read the number with that in mind. 1–0 · 94–6–0
  27. 84′We said ML Vitebsk at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–0 · 95–5–0
  28. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Neman · On: alexey dayneka · Off: Andrey Yakimov
  29. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' Neman · On: Yuri Pavlyukovets · Off: Dmitri Girs
  30. 90′SUBSTITUTION · 90' ML Vitebsk · On: M. Bulanov · Off: Artem Kontsevoy
  31. 91′We said ML Vitebsk at 52% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
  32. 91′⚽ GOAL · 90+1' ML Vitebsk 2–0 Neman
  33. 93′GOAL DISALLOWED · 90+3' ML Vitebsk
  34. FTFULL TIME ML Vitebsk 1–0 Neman
  35. FTML Vitebsk 1–0 Neman · ML Vitebsk win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ML Vitebsk are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: ML Vitebsk 52%, draw 26%, Neman 22%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 45%.

The AI’s read on ML Vitebsk v NemanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

ML Vitebsk win52%
Draw26%
Neman win22%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueTikhinichi Sportcomplex

Line-ups

ML Vitebsk

4-3-3

Neman

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

ML Vitebsk

Neman

3Days since last match4

Last match: 15 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

Last match: 14 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
1ML Vitebsk23+3150
5Neman24+1143

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

ML Vitebsk

4-3-3

1 P. Pavlyuchenko

23 S. Balanovich

20 Z. Volkov

6 K. Gomanov

45 I. Moskalenchik

55 V. Gromyko

4 A. Ode

15 V. Bocherov

10 D. Cleonise

80 A. Kontsevoy

27 A. Mesarović

Coach · Juan Díaz

Substitutes

90 · I. Grudko

8 · S. Gnaka

99 · M. Bulanov

12 · R. Bosić

3 · N. Baranok

5 · M. Mohammadi

30 · Pavel Shcherbachenya

7 · T. Ivanov

22 · Y. Skibskiy

Neman

4-2-3-1

16 N. Matysyuk

55 D. Girs

4 A. Vasiljev

20 I. Sadovnichiy

8 Y. Pantea

47 M. Kozlov

24 A. Yakimov

15 O. Evdokimov

9 S. Pushnyakov

33 D. Spătaru

88 P. Savitskiy

Coach · I. Kovalevich

Substitutes

19 · A. Dayneko

22 · I. Kirko

1 · A. Malievskiy

6 · A. Nazarenko

32 · Y. Pavlyukovets

7 · A. Ratković

2 · V. Tonkevich

23 · T. Yormie

17 · A. Suchkov

Our number · ml vitebsk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:40 · locked at kick-off
52% The market59%
Us52%
Market59%

We make ML Vitebsk a 52% chance to win. The market has them at 59%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.5–0.9.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · ML Vitebsk v Neman1.52 – 0.88
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 AugW3 D3 L0 · W5 D1 L0
Table places · points 50 v 431 v 5
The market · ML Vitebsk win59% · ours 52%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 11 OCT 04:0118 OCT 17:26
Our probability · ML Vitebsk win The market, margin stripped

Published at 51%, 52% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 59% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
ML Vitebsk win52%59%−7
Draw26%25%+1
Neman win22%16%+6
Over 2.5 goals43%45%−2
Both teams to score45%45%0
Over 1.5 goals69%70%−1
Over 3.5 goals22%25%−3
ML Vitebsk or draw78%84%−6
ML Vitebsk clean sheet42%––
Neman clean sheet22%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 13.9%
0123450 9.2 8.2 3.6 1 13.9 11.7 5.3 2 10.3 8.9 4.0 3 5.3 4.6 2.0 4 2.1 5
under 2% 5% 12%+ML Vitebsk down, Neman across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

4 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.00
Over 2.53 of 4
Both scored3 of 4
Last meetingsNEM 1–2 MLV · MLV 2–2 NEM · NEM 3–1 MLV · MLV 1–0 NEM

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 29 Aug

ML VITEBSK

DDDWWW1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 5–1 · 2–0

NEMAN

WDWWWW1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–0 · 2–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1ML Vitebsk23+3150
2FC Isloch Minsk R.24+2149
3Dinamo Minsk23+2449
4Dinamo Brest25+1644
5Neman24+1143
6FC Vitebsk25+840
7FC Gomel25+1140
8FC Minsk25−134
9Torpedo Zhodino24−230
10Slavia Mozyr24−625
11Baranovichi25−1825
12Arsenal24−1823
13Bate Borisov25−1321
14Belshina23−1721
15FC Dnepr Mogilev25−1619
16Naftan24−3117

The competition's standings before kick-off.