FC Vitebsk v ML Vitebsk prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 20:17

FC Vitebsk 0–2 ML Vitebsk ML VITEBSK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said ML Vitebsk win~~51%

~~The market said~~67%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.364

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.166

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 27 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said ML Vitebsk win at 51%.
1′KICK-OFF FC Vitebsk v ML Vitebsk
6′Much as we predicted: ML Vitebsk was 51% before kick-off and our model makes it 50% now. 0–0 · 23–27–50
17′SUBSTITUTION · 17' FC Vitebsk · On: Marin Zgomba · Off: Roman Minaev
18′17′: Radivoj Bosić on the scoresheet for ML Vitebsk. 0–0 · 23–31–47
18′We published ML Vitebsk at 51%. Our model now makes it 77%. 0–1 · 6–16–77
18′⚽ GOAL · 17' FC Vitebsk 0–1 ML Vitebsk · Radivoj Bosić (assist Sergei Balanovich)
18′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 18' ML Vitebsk win: 51% at kick-off, 77% now
24′⚽ GOAL · 24' FC Vitebsk 1–1 ML Vitebsk
24′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 24' ML Vitebsk win: 51% at kick-off, 45% now
26′GOAL DISALLOWED · 26' FC Vitebsk
26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' ML Vitebsk win: 51% at kick-off, 78% now
26′🟨 YELLOW · 26' Valery Bocherov · ML Vitebsk
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.3 we expected. 0–1 · 5–16–78
42′We published ML Vitebsk at 51%. Our model now makes it 80%. 0–1 · 4–16–80
44′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Yevhen Protasov · FC Vitebsk
45′HALF-TIME FC Vitebsk 0–1 ML Vitebsk
46′SECOND HALF FC Vitebsk 0–1 ML Vitebsk
48′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45+3' ML Vitebsk win: 51% at kick-off, 81% now
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' ML Vitebsk · On: Bassekou Diabate · Off: Radivoj Bosić
58′SUBSTITUTION · 57' ML Vitebsk · On: Ode abdullahi · Off: Aleksandar Mesarovic
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' FC Vitebsk · On: Zakhar Chervyakov · Off: Daniil Pesnyak
65′We published ML Vitebsk at 51%. Our model now makes it 85%. 0–1 · 2–13–85
65′Artem Kontsevoy scores for ML Vitebsk on 65′. 0–1 · 2–13–85
65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' ML Vitebsk · On: Yan Skibsky · Off: Sergei Balanovich
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' ML Vitebsk · On: Nikita Baranok · Off: Valeri Gromyko
70′We published ML Vitebsk at 51%. Our model now makes it 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
70′⚽ GOAL · 65' FC Vitebsk 0–2 ML Vitebsk · Artem Kontsevoy (assist Denilho Cleonise)
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 70' ML Vitebsk win: 51% at kick-off, 99% now
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' FC Vitebsk · On: Sergey Tikhonovskiy · Off: Roman·Lisovsky
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' FC Vitebsk · On: Evgeni Krasnov · Off: Mikhail Bashilov
71′SUBSTITUTION · 69' FC Vitebsk · On: vlad anikeev · Off: Evgeniy Novykh
73′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Zakhar Chervyakov · FC Vitebsk
79′We published ML Vitebsk at 51%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' ML Vitebsk · On: Aleksey Nosko · Off: Valery Bocherov
91′🟨 YELLOW · 90' Ode abdullahi · ML Vitebsk
FTFULL TIME FC Vitebsk 0–2 ML Vitebsk
FTFC Vitebsk 0–2 ML Vitebsk · ML Vitebsk win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

ML Vitebsk are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Vitebsk 23%, draw 26%, ML Vitebsk 51%. Over 2.5 goals 41%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on FC Vitebsk v ML VitebskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FC Vitebsk win23%

Draw26%

ML Vitebsk win51%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 17:30

RoundMatchday 26

VenueVitebsky Central Sport Complex

Line-ups

FC Vitebsk

4-3-3

ML Vitebsk

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Vitebsk

ML Vitebsk

7Days since last match6

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	ML Vitebsk	24	+32	53
6	FC Vitebsk	25	+8	40

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Vitebsk

4-3-3

6 K. Rodionov

7 R. Lisovskiy

15 M. Kuntsevich

17 E. Novykh

10 Y. Protasov

22 S. Egorov

11 A. Gurenko

30 Mikhail Bashilov

88 E. Frazzoni

77 R. Minaev

50 N. Goylo

Coach · S. Gurenko

Substitutes

1 · I. Novichkov

66 · A. Radin

8 · A. Anufriev

20 · E. Krasnov

26 · S. Tikhonovskiy

86 · M. Žgomba

14 · Z. Chervyakov

18 · V. Anikeev

67 · G. Minkevich

24 · Ivan Kravchenko

ML Vitebsk

Formation not confirmed

1 P. Pavlyuchenko

23 S. Balanovich

20 Z. Volkov

6 K. Gomanov

45 I. Moskalenchik

27 A. Mesarović

55 V. Gromyko

15 V. Bocherov

10 D. Cleonise

80 A. Kontsevoy

12 R. Bosić

Coach · Juan Díaz

Substitutes

22 · Y. Skibskiy

18 · V. Zhuk

2 · Aleksey Nosko

4 · A. Ode

3 · N. Baranok

30 · Pavel Shcherbachenya

7 · T. Ivanov

9 · B. Diabaté

99 · M. Bulanov

Our number · ml vitebsk winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 03:46 · locked at kick-off

51% The market67%

Us51%

~~Market~~67%

We make ML Vitebsk a 51% chance to win. The market has them at 67%. We are 16 points less confident than the market. The model expects 0.9–1.5.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · FC Vitebsk v ML Vitebsk~~0.88 – 1.46

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug~~W3 D2 L1 · W4 D2 L0

~~Table places · points 40 v 53~~6 v 2

~~The market · ML Vitebsk win~~67% · ours 51%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · ML Vitebsk win The market, margin stripped

Published at 50%, 51% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 67% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Vitebsk win	23%	11%	+12
Draw	26%	21%	+5
ML Vitebsk win	51%	67%	−16
Over 2.5 goals	41%	46%	−5
Both teams to score	44%	40%	+4
Over 1.5 goals	67%	69%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	21%	26%	−5
FC Vitebsk or draw	49%	33%	+16
FC Vitebsk clean sheet	24%	–	–
ML Vitebsk clean sheet	42%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.3%

0123450 9.7 14.3 10.2 5.0 1 8.8 11.9 8.7 4.3 2 3.8 5.4 3.9 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Vitebsk down, ML Vitebsk across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,365 Premier League matches up to 23 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.2% of games this season, across 199 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 6 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.50 goals a meeting; 3 of 6 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Vitebsk at home: 1.83 scored, 0.17 conceded a game (last 6). ML Vitebsk away: 2.83 scored, 1.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.88 goals for FC Vitebsk, 1.46 for ML Vitebsk. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

6 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.50

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 6

~~Both scored~~2 of 6

~~Last meetings~~MLV 1–2 FCV · FCV 0–1 MLV · MLV 2–0 FCV · MLV 0–4 FCV

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

FC VITEBSK

WLDWDW2–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 0–0 · 1–0

ML VITEBSK

DDWWWW0–0 · 1–1 · 5–1 · 5–1 · 2–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	Dinamo Minsk	25	+27	55
2	ML Vitebsk	24	+32	53
3	FC Isloch Minsk R.	24	+21	49
4	Dinamo Brest	25	+16	44
5	Neman	25	+10	43
6	FC Vitebsk	25	+8	40
7	FC Gomel	26	+10	40
8	FC Minsk	26	−3	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	25	−1	33
10	Slavia Mozyr	25	−4	28
11	Baranovichi	26	−16	28
12	Arsenal	25	−20	23
13	Bate Borisov	25	−13	21
14	Belshina	24	−19	21
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	25	−16	19
16	Naftan	25	−32	17