FC Vitebsk v FC Isloch Minsk R. prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 14:34

FC Vitebsk 0–0 FC Isloch Minsk R. FC ISLOCH MINSK R. WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Isloch Minsk R. win~~42%

~~The market said~~43%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.783

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.759

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Isloch Minsk R. win at 42%.
2′KICK-OFF FC Vitebsk v FC Isloch Minsk R.
3′Much as we predicted: FC Isloch Minsk R. was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 29–29–41
4′Much as we predicted: FC Isloch Minsk R. was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 41% now. 0–0 · 29–29–41
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was FC Isloch Minsk R. win 34%)
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' FC Isloch Minsk R. win is now our likeliest result at 39% (was Draw 33%)
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Evgeni Yudchits · FC Isloch Minsk R.
45′HALF-TIME FC Vitebsk 0–0 FC Isloch Minsk R.
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' FC Isloch Minsk R. · On: Anton Shramchenko · Off: Vladimir Khvashchinskiy Corrected
46′SECOND HALF FC Vitebsk 0–0 FC Isloch Minsk R.
47′THE CALL SWINGS · 47' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was FC Isloch Minsk R. win 34%)
48′THE CALL SWINGS · 48' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was FC Isloch Minsk R. win 34%)
63′🟨 YELLOW · 62' sergi abramishvili · FC Isloch Minsk R.
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' FC Vitebsk · On: Marin Zgomba · Off: Roman Minaev Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' FC Vitebsk · On: vlad anikeev · Off: Artem Gurenko Corrected
65′SUBSTITUTION · 64' FC Vitebsk · On: Zakhar Chervyakov · Off: Daniil Pesnyak Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FC Isloch Minsk R. · On: Godfrey Bitok Stephen · Off: Nikita·Patsko Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FC Isloch Minsk R. · On: Pavel Shevchenko · Off: sergi abramishvili Corrected
72′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FC Vitebsk · On: Sergey Tikhonovskiy · Off: Roman·Lisovsky Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FC Isloch Minsk R. · On: aleksandr butko · Off: Maksim Kovalevich Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Isloch Minsk R. · On: Timofey Martynov · Off: Adeola Junior Adeyemi Olaleye Corrected
FTFULL TIME FC Vitebsk 0–0 FC Isloch Minsk R.
FTFC Vitebsk 0–0 FC Isloch Minsk R. · FC Isloch Minsk R. win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

FC Vitebsk win30%

Draw28%

FC Isloch Minsk R. win42%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 12:00

VenueVitebsky Central Sport Complex

Line-ups

FC Vitebsk

4-4-2

FC Isloch Minsk R.

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FC Vitebsk

FC Isloch Minsk R.

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Isloch Minsk R.	22	+19	45
7	FC Vitebsk	23	+7	36

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Vitebsk

4-4-2

50 N. Goylo

17 E. Novykh

15 M. Kuntsevich

6 K. Rodionov

22 S. Egorov

11 A. Gurenko

30 M. Bashilov

10 Y. Protasov

7 R. Lisovskiy

77 R. Minaev

88 D. Pesnyak

Coach · Sergey Gurenko

Substitutes

1 · I. Novichkov

4 · V. Karzhitskiy

26 · S. Tikhonovskiy

86 · M. Zgomba

18 · V. Anikeev

14 · Z. Chervyakov

67 · G. Minkevich

23 · V. Pulkach

66 · A. Radin

FC Isloch Minsk R.

3-4-3

1 A. Klimovich

25 A. Makarenko

3 I. Tikhomirov

33 I. Skrobotov

99 E. Yudchits

7 A. Svirepa

23 M. Kovalevich

15 N. Patsko

17 S. Abramishvili

10 V. Khvashchinskiy

19 A. Olaleye

Coach · Dmitriy Komarovskiy

Substitutes

28 · A. Svirskiy

13 · G. Stephen

18 · M. Dayyabu

88 · N. Fadeev

74 · M. Sachkovskiy

22 · P. Shevchenko

32 · T. Shkurdyuk

8 · A. Shramchenko

70 · A. Butko

11 · T. Martynov

Our number · fc isloch minsk r. winPublished 11 Oct 12:12

42% The market43%

Us42%

~~Market~~43%

We make FC Isloch Minsk R. a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 43%. We are within 1 point of the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc isloch minsk r. win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Vitebsk win	30%	27%	+3
Draw	28%	30%	−1
FC Isloch Minsk R. win	42%	43%	−1
Over 2.5 goals	38%	42%	−3
Both teams to score	44%	47%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	65%	66%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	19%	23%	−4
FC Vitebsk or draw	58%	57%	+1
FC Vitebsk clean sheet	30%	–	–
FC Isloch Minsk R. clean sheet	38%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.5%

0123450 10.9 13.5 8.2 3.5 1 10.9 12.7 7.9 3.3 2 5.3 6.4 3.9 3 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Vitebsk down, FC Isloch Minsk R. across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,350 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 184 played.

Head to head

9 previous meetings, 2.78 goals a meeting; 5 of 9 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Vitebsk at home: 2.00 scored, 0.50 conceded a game (last 6). FC Isloch Minsk R. away: 1.83 scored, 0.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.99 goals for FC Vitebsk, 1.24 for FC Isloch Minsk R.. Most likely score 0–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 11 Oct 11:38. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

9 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.78

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 9

~~Both scored~~2 of 9

~~Last meetings~~FCI 3–0 FCV · FCI 3–0 FCV · FCV 3–3 FCI · FCI 1–0 FCV

Form · last six in Premier League

FC VITEBSK

LWWLDW0–1 · 1–0 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 6–0

FC ISLOCH MINSK R.

WDWDWL1–0 · 0–0 · 2–0 · 1–1 · 2–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Isloch Minsk R.	22	+19	45
2	ML Vitebsk	21	+25	44
3	Dinamo Minsk	21	+21	43
4	Dinamo Brest	24	+16	43
5	Neman	23	+9	40
6	FC Gomel	23	+15	39
7	FC Vitebsk	23	+7	36
8	FC Minsk	24	+1	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	23	0	30
10	Slavia Mozyr	23	−4	25
11	Baranovichi	24	−17	25
12	Arsenal	24	−18	23
13	Bate Borisov	23	−10	21
14	Belshina	23	−17	21
15	Naftan	24	−31	17
16	FC Dnepr Mogilev	23	−16	16