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FC Minsk v Torpedo Zhodino

FC Minsk

0–1Full time

Torpedo Zhodino

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · FC Minsk Stadium

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 13:46

FC Minsk 0–1 Torpedo Zhodino FC MINSK WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Minsk win~~38%

~~The market said~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.623

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.654

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay1 note · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Minsk win at 38%.
2′Little has changed for our model: FC Minsk 38% before kick-off, 38% now. 0–0 · 38–26–36
2′KICK-OFF FC Minsk v Torpedo Zhodino
33′SUBSTITUTION · 31' FC Minsk · On: Felix Christanval Abena · Off: Ilya Aleksievich Corrected
40′THE CALL SWINGS · 40' Draw is now our likeliest result at 37% (was FC Minsk win 32%)
45′HALF-TIME FC Minsk 0–0 Torpedo Zhodino
47′SECOND HALF FC Minsk 0–0 Torpedo Zhodino
53′🟨 YELLOW · 52' Matar Dieye · FC Minsk
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' FC Minsk · On: Gleb·Zherder · Off: Honore Gomis Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 67' FC Minsk · On: Alexander Makas · Off: Matar Dieye Corrected
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Torpedo Zhodino · On: Timofey Sharkovskiy · Off: Dmitriy Yusov Corrected
71′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Torpedo Zhodino · On: Grigoriy Martyanov · Off: Vladislav Melko Corrected
77′⚽ GOAL · 75' FC Minsk 0–1 Torpedo Zhodino · Aleksandr Frantsuzov
81′🟨 YELLOW · 80' Timofey Sharkovskiy · Torpedo Zhodino
81′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Minsk · On: Arseni Migdalenok · Off: Vladislav Yatskevich Corrected
82′SUBSTITUTION · 80' FC Minsk · On: V. Dikhtievsky · Off: Konstantin Kuchinskiy Corrected
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Danila Zhulpa · Torpedo Zhodino
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Torpedo Zhodino · On: Vladislav Nalivayko · Off: Aleksandr Lomovitskiy Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Gregoy Abdul · FC Minsk
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Torpedo Zhodino · On: Maxim Gaevoy · Off: Aleksandr Frantsuzov Corrected
FTFULL TIME FC Minsk 0–1 Torpedo Zhodino
FTFC Minsk 0–1 Torpedo Zhodino · FC Minsk win: wrong · Under 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

FC Minsk win38%

Draw26%

Torpedo Zhodino win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 11:00

Venue · FC Minsk Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

FC Minsk

3-4-3

30 A. Gutor

88 A. Jarjue Kabia

4 R. Khadarkevich

3 A. Sokol

19 K. Kuchinskiy

13 I. Aleksievich

29 I. Dubinets

15 V. Yatskevich

7 H. Gomis

9 M. Dieye

80 A. Ksenofontov

Coach · Artem Chelyadinsky

Substitutes

16 · M. Gerashchenko

2 · V. Dikhtievskiy

6 · F. Abena

8 · A. Migdalenok

10 · G. Zherdev

22 · A. Makas

23 · A. Turich

24 · S. Matusevich

33 · K. Malitskiy

79 · I. Sviridenko

Torpedo Zhodino

3-5-2

25 T. Yurasov

3 Y. Chagovets

13 A. Zaleskiy

96 V. Melko

68 D. Zhulpa

7 A. Bykov

30 V. Pobudey

6 K. Premudrov

28 D. Yusov

89 A. Frantsuzov

11 A. Lomovitskiy

Coach · Aleksey Baga

Substitutes

99 · M. Maslenikov

4 · V. Manaev

9 · G. Petrosyan

10 · T. Sharkovskiy

14 · M. Ladutko

15 · R. Zheleznyi

20 · G. Martyanov

27 · M. Gaevoy

47 · V. Nalivayko

90 · N. Matusevich

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Minsk

3-4-3

30 A. Gutor

88 A. Jarjue Kabia

4 R. Khadarkevich

3 A. Sokol

19 K. Kuchinskiy

13 I. Aleksievich

29 I. Dubinets

15 V. Yatskevich

7 H. Gomis

9 M. Dieye

80 A. Ksenofontov

Coach · Artem Chelyadinsky

Substitutes

16 · M. Gerashchenko

2 · V. Dikhtievskiy

6 · F. Abena

8 · A. Migdalenok

10 · G. Zherdev

22 · A. Makas

23 · A. Turich

24 · S. Matusevich

33 · K. Malitskiy

79 · I. Sviridenko

Torpedo Zhodino

3-5-2

25 T. Yurasov

3 Y. Chagovets

13 A. Zaleskiy

96 V. Melko

68 D. Zhulpa

7 A. Bykov

30 V. Pobudey

6 K. Premudrov

28 D. Yusov

89 A. Frantsuzov

11 A. Lomovitskiy

Coach · Aleksey Baga

Substitutes

99 · M. Maslenikov

4 · V. Manaev

9 · G. Petrosyan

10 · T. Sharkovskiy

14 · M. Ladutko

15 · R. Zheleznyi

20 · G. Martyanov

27 · M. Gaevoy

47 · V. Nalivayko

90 · N. Matusevich

Our number · fc minsk winPublished 10 Oct 11:13

38% The market38%

Us38%

~~Market~~38%

We make FC Minsk a 38% chance to win. The market has them at 38%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.3–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · fc minsk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 38% to 39% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Minsk win	38%	38%	0
Draw	26%	27%	−2
Torpedo Zhodino win	36%	34%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	49%	51%	−2
Both teams to score	53%	56%	−3
Over 1.5 goals	73%	74%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	30%	−3
FC Minsk or draw	64%	66%	−2
FC Minsk clean sheet	28%	–	–
Torpedo Zhodino clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%

0123450 7.3 9.5 6.0 2.6 1 9.8 12.0 7.8 3.4 2 6.5 8.1 5.2 2.3 3 2.9 3.7 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Minsk down, Torpedo Zhodino across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,346 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.9% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.45 goals a meeting; 5 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Minsk at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Torpedo Zhodino away: 1.00 scored, 2.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.35 goals for FC Minsk, 1.29 for Torpedo Zhodino. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 10:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.45

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 11

~~Both scored~~5 of 11

~~Last meetings~~TOR 3–0 FCM · TOR 0–1 FCM · FCM 1–5 TOR · TOR 2–2 FCM

Form · last six in Premier League

FC MINSK

LLLWWL1–2 · 0–1 · 1–2 · 3–0 · 1–0 · 0–2

TORPEDO ZHODINO

LDWLLL0–4 · 0–0 · 4–2 · 1–2 · 0–1 · 0–6

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Isloch Minsk R.	22	+19	45
2	ML Vitebsk	21	+25	44
3	Dinamo Minsk	21	+21	43
4	Dinamo Brest	24	+16	43
5	FC Gomel	23	+15	39
6	Neman	22	+6	37
7	FC Vitebsk	23	+7	36
8	FC Minsk	23	+2	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	22	−1	27
10	Slavia Mozyr	22	−3	25
11	Baranovichi	23	−14	25
12	Arsenal	24	−18	23
13	Belshina	22	−14	21
14	Bate Borisov	22	−11	18
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	23	−16	16
16	Naftan	23	−34	14