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FC Gomel v ML Vitebsk

FC Gomel
1–5Full time
ML Vitebsk

Premier League · SUN 11 OCT · Central Stadion

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 16:56
FC Gomel 1–5 ML Vitebsk ML VITEBSK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said ML Vitebsk win42%
The market said48%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.498
The market’s Brier score0.408

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay6 notes · 35 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said ML Vitebsk win at 42%.
  2. 4′Artem Kontsevoy scores for ML Vitebsk on 1′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–19–70
  3. 5′Artem Kontsevoy scores for ML Vitebsk on 1′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 11–19–70
  4. 24′5′ and it is 0–2: Artem Kontsevoy on the scoresheet for ML Vitebsk. 0–2 · 2–7–91
  5. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' ML Vitebsk win: 42% at kick-off, 70% now
  6. 24′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 24' ML Vitebsk win: 42% at kick-off, 91% now
  7. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' ML Vitebsk win: 42% at kick-off, 70% now
  8. 25′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 25' ML Vitebsk win: 42% at kick-off, 91% now
  9. 25′SUBSTITUTION · 24' FC Gomel · On: Vadim Martinkevich · Off: Damir·Shaikhtdinov Corrected
  10. 26′5′ and it is 0–2: Artem Kontsevoy on the scoresheet for ML Vitebsk. 0–2 · 2–7–92
  11. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' ML Vitebsk win: 42% at kick-off, 91% now
  12. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' ML Vitebsk win: 42% at kick-off, 70% now
  13. 26′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 26' ML Vitebsk win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
  14. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' ML Vitebsk win: 42% at kick-off, 91% now
  15. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' ML Vitebsk win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
  16. 33′⚽ GOAL · 33' FC Gomel 1–2 ML Vitebsk · Artem Kontsevoy
  17. 34′⚽ GOAL · 30' FC Gomel 1–2 ML Vitebsk · Aleksei Gavrilovich
  18. 34′SUBSTITUTION · 34' ML Vitebsk · On: Silas Gnaka · Off: Aleksandar Mesarovic Corrected
  19. 41′FC Gomel ahead on 30′ through Aleksei Gavrilovich. 1–2. 1–2 · 6–19–74
  20. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' ML Vitebsk win: 42% at kick-off, 74% now
  21. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' ML Vitebsk win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
  22. 42′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 42' ML Vitebsk win: 42% at kick-off, 74% now
  23. 43′FC Gomel ahead on 30′ through Aleksei Gavrilovich. 1–2. 1–2 · 6–19–75
  24. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' ML Vitebsk win: 42% at kick-off, 74% now
  25. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 43' ML Vitebsk win: 42% at kick-off, 92% now
  26. 45′HALF-TIME FC Gomel 1–2 ML Vitebsk
  27. 45′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 45' ML Vitebsk win: 42% at kick-off, 75% now
  28. 46′SECOND HALF FC Gomel 1–2 ML Vitebsk
  29. 47′⚽ GOAL · 47' FC Gomel 1–3 ML Vitebsk · Aleksei Gavrilovich
  30. 47′⚽ GOAL · 49' FC Gomel 1–3 ML Vitebsk · Denilho Cleonise (assist Radivoj Bosić)
  31. 49′SUBSTITUTION · 51' FC Gomel · On: Denis·Kovalevich · Off: Raymond Adeola Corrected
  32. 55′SUBSTITUTION · 51' FC Gomel · On: Denis·Kovalevich · Off: Raymond Adeola Corrected
  33. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' FC Gomel 1–4 ML Vitebsk · Denilho Cleonise
  34. 69′⚽ GOAL · 69' FC Gomel 1–4 ML Vitebsk · Valeri Gromyko
  35. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' ML Vitebsk · On: M. Bulanov · Off: Valeri Gromyko Corrected
  36. 73′SUBSTITUTION · 72' ML Vitebsk · On: Timur Ivanov · Off: Denilho Cleonise Corrected
  37. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 76' ML Vitebsk · On: Valery Bocherov · Off: Radivoj Bosić Corrected
  38. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 78' FC Gomel · On: Maksim Mardas · Off: Victor Sotnikov Corrected
  39. 83′⚽ GOAL · 83' FC Gomel 1–5 ML Vitebsk · Valeri Gromyko
  40. 83′⚽ GOAL · 82' FC Gomel 1–5 ML Vitebsk · M. Bulanov
  41. 87′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Vladislav Lazarev · FC Gomel
  42. FTFULL TIME FC Gomel 1–5 ML Vitebsk
  43. FTFC Gomel 1–5 ML Vitebsk · ML Vitebsk win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

FC Gomel win30%
Draw27%
ML Vitebsk win42%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 14:00

VenueCentral Stadion

Line-ups

FC Gomel

5-4-1

ML Vitebsk

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FC Gomel

ML Vitebsk

21Days since last match23
0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#TEAMPGDPTS
2ML Vitebsk21+2544
6FC Gomel23+1539

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Gomel

5-4-1

44 S. Kleshchuk

43 D. Shaykhtdinov

16 I. Zayats

33 V. Sotnikov

4 A. Gavrilovich

14 P. Pashevich

7 R. Adeola

19 D. Silinskiy

77 V. Lazarev

23 K. Danilin

11 T. Simanenka

Coach · Andrey Gorovtsov

Substitutes

49 · A. Karatai

88 · A. Ryzhchenko

3 · S. Matveychik

8 · E. Barsukov

13 · M. Mardas

17 · V. Martinkevich

21 · D. Kovalevich

ML Vitebsk

4-3-3

1 P. Pavlyuchenko

23 S. Balanovich

20 Z. Volkov

6 K. Gomanov

45 I. Moskalenchik

55 V. Gromyko

4 O. Abdullahi

27 A. Mesarovic

10 D. Cleonise

80 A. Kontsevoy

12 R. Bosic

Coach · Sergey Alekseev

Substitutes

30 · P. Shcherbachenya

3 · N. Baranok

22 · Y. Skibskiy

5 · M. Mohammadi

15 · V. Bocherov

8 · S. Gnaka

2 · A. Nosko

7 · T. Ivanov

99 · M. Bulanov

Our number · ml vitebsk winPublished 11 Oct 14:09
42% The market48%
Us42%
Market48%

We make ML Vitebsk a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.3.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 9 OCT 06:1711 OCT 04:01
Our probability · ml vitebsk win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. The market has gone from 49% to 48% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FC Gomel win30%24%+7
Draw27%28%−1
ML Vitebsk win42%48%−5
Over 2.5 goals41%43%−1
Both teams to score46%47%−1
Over 1.5 goals67%67%+1
Over 3.5 goals21%24%−2
FC Gomel or draw58%52%+5
FC Gomel clean sheet28%––
ML Vitebsk clean sheet36%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.7%
0123450 9.7 12.7 8.0 3.5 1 10.3 12.5 8.2 3.6 2 5.3 6.7 4.3 3 2.4 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+FC Gomel down, ML Vitebsk across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2025
Goals a meeting2.33
Over 2.51 of 3
Both scored0 of 3
Last meetingsMLV 0–0 FCG · MLV 5–0 FCG · FCG 0–2 MLV

Form · last six in Premier League

FC GOMEL

WDWWLW6–0 · 0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0

ML VITEBSK

DWDDDW0–0 · 3–1 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–1 · 5–1

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1FC Isloch Minsk R.22+1945
2ML Vitebsk21+2544
3Dinamo Minsk21+2143
4Dinamo Brest24+1643
5Neman23+940
6FC Gomel23+1539
7FC Vitebsk23+736
8FC Minsk24+134
9Torpedo Zhodino23030
10Slavia Mozyr23−425
11Baranovichi24−1725
12Arsenal24−1823
13Bate Borisov23−1021
14Belshina23−1721
15Naftan24−3117
16FC Dnepr Mogilev23−1616

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.