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FC Gomel v Dinamo Minsk
FC Gomel
Dinamo MinskPremier League · SAT 24 OCT · Central Stadion
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Minsk win at 47%.
- 2′Little has changed for our model: Dinamo Minsk 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 27–27–46
- 2′KICK-OFF FC Gomel v Dinamo Minsk
- 11′FC Gomel are down to ten from 11′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 26–29–45
- 11′🟥 RED CARD · 11' FC Gomel
- 15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Roman Begunov · Dinamo Minsk
- 23′Vladislav Lazarev scores for FC Gomel on 21′. 0–0 · 26–32–42
- 23′We said Dinamo Minsk at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 58–25–17
- 23′⚽ GOAL · 21' FC Gomel 1–0 Dinamo Minsk · Vladislav Lazarev (assist Timofey Simanenka)
- 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Dinamo Minsk win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
- 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' FC Gomel win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Dinamo Minsk win 42%)
- 24′SUBSTITUTION · 23' Dinamo Minsk · On: Maksim Shvetsov · Off: Gleb Gurban
- 27′26′: Artem Sokolovskiy on the scoresheet for Dinamo Minsk, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 25–33–41
- 27′⚽ GOAL · 26' FC Gomel 1–1 Dinamo Minsk · Artem Sokolovskiy
- 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Dinamo Minsk win: 47% at kick-off, 41% now
- 27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Dinamo Minsk win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was FC Gomel win 58%)
- 30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Fawaz·Abdullahi · Dinamo Minsk
- 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Dinamo Minsk win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
- 43′Dinamo Minsk have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 23–40–37
- 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Dinamo Minsk win 39%)
- 45′HALF-TIME FC Gomel 1–1 Dinamo Minsk
- 46′We said Dinamo Minsk at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 22–42–35
- 47′8 shots for Dinamo Minsk, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 22–43–35
- 47′SECOND HALF FC Gomel 1–1 Dinamo Minsk
- 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Dinamo Minsk · On: Vladislav Poloz · Off: Leonard Chatelin·Gweth
- 49′We said Dinamo Minsk at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 22–44–34
- 58′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Damir·Shaikhtdinov · FC Gomel
- 59′We said Dinamo Minsk at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 19–51–29
- 60′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–1 · 19–52–29
- 60′12 shots for Dinamo Minsk, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 19–52–29
- 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Dinamo Minsk win: 47% at kick-off, 26% now
- 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Dinamo Minsk · On: Moustapha Djimet · Off: Artem Sokolovskiy
- 66′We said Dinamo Minsk at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–2 · 2–15–83
- 66′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–15–83
- 66′Dinamo Minsk ahead on 64′ through Fawaz·Abdullahi. 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–83
- 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' FC Gomel 1–2 Dinamo Minsk
- 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Dinamo Minsk win: 47% at kick-off, 83% now
- 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Dinamo Minsk win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 57%)
- 69′We said Dinamo Minsk at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
- 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Dinamo Minsk win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
- 74′GOAL DISALLOWED · 74' Dinamo Minsk
- 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Dinamo Minsk win: 47% at kick-off, 19% now
- 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Dinamo Minsk win 88%)
- 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Dinamo Minsk win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
- 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FC Gomel · On: Raymond Adeola · Off: Denis·Kovalevich
- 78′We said Dinamo Minsk at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
- 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' FC Gomel 1–2 Dinamo Minsk · Fawaz·Abdullahi
- 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Dinamo Minsk win: 47% at kick-off, 90% now
- 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Dinamo Minsk win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 73%)
- 85′We said Dinamo Minsk at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Dinamo Minsk · On: Gulzhigit Alykulov · Off: Evgeni Malashevich
- 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Dinamo Minsk · On: Aleksey Ivanov · Off: Aleksey Vakulich
- 88′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Moustapha Djimet · Dinamo Minsk
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FC Gomel · On: Maksim Mardas · Off: Vadim Martinkevich
- 88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FC Gomel · On: Pavel·Pashevich · Off: Damir·Shaikhtdinov
- 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Dinamo Minsk win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
- FTFULL TIME FC Gomel 1–2 Dinamo Minsk
- FTFC Gomel 1–2 Dinamo Minsk · Dinamo Minsk win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Dinamo Minsk are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: FC Gomel 27%, draw 26%, Dinamo Minsk 47%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off
FC Gomel win27%
Dinamo Minsk win47%Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00
RoundMatchday 26
VenueCentral Stadion
Match timeline
All events
FC GomelMIN
Dinamo MinskEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
FC Gomel
4-4-2
Dinamo Minsk
4-3-3
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
FC Gomel
Dinamo Minsk
Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)
Last match: 19 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
FC Gomel
4-4-2
44 S. Kleshchuk
16 I. Zayats
90 G. Kukushkin
43 D. Shaykhtdinov
17 V. Martinkevich
33 V. Sotnikov
19 D. Silinskiy
77 V. Lazarev
23 K. Danilin
11 T. Simanenka
21 D. Kovalevich
Coach · A. Gorovtsov
Substitutes
88 · A. Ryzhchenko
3 · S. Matveychik
14 · P. Pashevich
7 · R. Adeola
8 · E. Barsukov
9 · K. Leonovich
13 · M. Mardas
66 · Roman Shapovalov
5 · H. Pratasenia
Dinamo Minsk
4-3-3
47 A. Kudravets
44 G. Gurban
67 R. Begunov
26 V. Kalinin
24 A. Vakulich
8 A. Selyava
78 A. Sokolovskiy
42 F. Abdullahi
10 K. Vardanyan
80 L. Gweth
7 E. Malashevich
Coach · A. Shagoyko
Substitutes
11 · G. Alykulov
13 · V. Poloz
23 · A. Zhechko
17 · I. Bakhar
30 · M. Djimet
5 · D. Dushevskiy
12 · A. Ivanov
3 · M. Shvetsov
1 · I. Shimakovich
27 · M. Aleksandrov
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
FC Gomel
4-4-2
44 S. Kleshchuk
16 I. Zayats
90 G. Kukushkin
43 D. Shaykhtdinov
17 V. Martinkevich
33 V. Sotnikov
19 D. Silinskiy
77 V. Lazarev
23 K. Danilin
11 T. Simanenka
21 D. Kovalevich
Coach · A. Gorovtsov
Substitutes
88 · A. Ryzhchenko
3 · S. Matveychik
14 · P. Pashevich
7 · R. Adeola
8 · E. Barsukov
9 · K. Leonovich
13 · M. Mardas
66 · Roman Shapovalov
5 · H. Pratasenia
Dinamo Minsk
4-3-3
47 A. Kudravets
44 G. Gurban
67 R. Begunov
26 V. Kalinin
24 A. Vakulich
8 A. Selyava
78 A. Sokolovskiy
42 F. Abdullahi
10 K. Vardanyan
80 L. Gweth
7 E. Malashevich
Coach · A. Shagoyko
Substitutes
11 · G. Alykulov
13 · V. Poloz
23 · A. Zhechko
17 · I. Bakhar
30 · M. Djimet
5 · D. Dushevskiy
12 · A. Ivanov
3 · M. Shvetsov
1 · I. Shimakovich
27 · M. Aleksandrov
We make Dinamo Minsk a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 46%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Gomel win | 27% | 20% | +7 |
| Draw | 26% | 27% | −1 |
| Dinamo Minsk win | 47% | 54% | −7 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 43% | 0 |
| Both teams to score | 47% | 48% | −1 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 68% | 68% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 22% | 23% | −1 |
| FC Gomel or draw | 53% | 46% | +7 |
| FC Gomel clean sheet | 25% | – | – |
| Dinamo Minsk clean sheet | 38% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug
FC GOMEL
DINAMO MINSK
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 24 | +32 | 53 |
| 2 | Dinamo Minsk | 24 | +26 | 52 |
| 3 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 24 | +21 | 49 |
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 25 | +16 | 44 |
| 5 | Neman | 25 | +10 | 43 |
| 6 | FC Vitebsk | 25 | +8 | 40 |
| 7 | FC Gomel | 25 | +11 | 40 |
| 8 | FC Minsk | 26 | −3 | 34 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 25 | −1 | 33 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 25 | −4 | 28 |
| 11 | Baranovichi | 26 | −16 | 28 |
| 12 | Arsenal | 25 | −20 | 23 |
| 13 | Bate Borisov | 25 | −13 | 21 |
| 14 | Belshina | 24 | −19 | 21 |
| 15 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 25 | −16 | 19 |
| 16 | Naftan | 25 | −32 | 17 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
ML Vitebsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Dinamo Brest
Neman
FC Vitebsk
FC Minsk
Torpedo Zhodino
Slavia Mozyr
Baranovichi
Arsenal
Bate Borisov
Belshina
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Naftan