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FC Gomel v Dinamo Minsk

FC Gomel
1–2Full time
Dinamo Minsk

Premier League · SAT 24 OCT · Central Stadion

Full timeGraded 24 Oct 14:04
FC Gomel 1–2 Dinamo Minsk DINAMO MINSK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Dinamo Minsk win47%
The market said54%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.425
The market’s Brier score0.326

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay18 notes · 38 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Minsk win at 47%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: Dinamo Minsk 47% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 27–27–46
  3. 2′KICK-OFF FC Gomel v Dinamo Minsk
  4. 11′FC Gomel are down to ten from 11′. Our number never saw that coming — nothing here adjusts for it. 0–0 · 26–29–45
  5. 11′🟥 RED CARD · 11' FC Gomel
  6. 15′🟨 YELLOW · 14' Roman Begunov · Dinamo Minsk
  7. 23′Vladislav Lazarev scores for FC Gomel on 21′. 0–0 · 26–32–42
  8. 23′We said Dinamo Minsk at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 58–25–17
  9. 23′⚽ GOAL · 21' FC Gomel 1–0 Dinamo Minsk · Vladislav Lazarev (assist Timofey Simanenka)
  10. 23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' Dinamo Minsk win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
  11. 23′THE CALL SWINGS · 23' FC Gomel win is now our likeliest result at 58% (was Dinamo Minsk win 42%)
  12. 24′SUBSTITUTION · 23' Dinamo Minsk · On: Maksim Shvetsov · Off: Gleb Gurban
  13. 27′26′: Artem Sokolovskiy on the scoresheet for Dinamo Minsk, making it 1–1. 1–1 · 25–33–41
  14. 27′⚽ GOAL · 26' FC Gomel 1–1 Dinamo Minsk · Artem Sokolovskiy
  15. 27′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 27' Dinamo Minsk win: 47% at kick-off, 41% now
  16. 27′THE CALL SWINGS · 27' Dinamo Minsk win is now our likeliest result at 41% (was FC Gomel win 58%)
  17. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Fawaz·Abdullahi · Dinamo Minsk
  18. 41′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 41' Dinamo Minsk win: 47% at kick-off, 37% now
  19. 43′Dinamo Minsk have had 7 attempts to 2 and it is still 1–1. 1–1 · 23–40–37
  20. 44′THE CALL SWINGS · 44' Draw is now our likeliest result at 41% (was Dinamo Minsk win 39%)
  21. 45′HALF-TIME FC Gomel 1–1 Dinamo Minsk
  22. 46′We said Dinamo Minsk at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 35%. 1–1 · 22–42–35
  23. 47′8 shots for Dinamo Minsk, 2 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 22–43–35
  24. 47′SECOND HALF FC Gomel 1–1 Dinamo Minsk
  25. 47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Dinamo Minsk · On: Vladislav Poloz · Off: Leonard Chatelin·Gweth
  26. 49′We said Dinamo Minsk at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 34%. 1–1 · 22–44–34
  27. 58′🟨 YELLOW · 56' Damir·Shaikhtdinov · FC Gomel
  28. 59′We said Dinamo Minsk at 47%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 19–51–29
  29. 60′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 1–1 · 19–52–29
  30. 60′12 shots for Dinamo Minsk, 3 the other way, and nothing between the sides on the scoreboard. 1–1 · 19–52–29
  31. 64′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 64' Dinamo Minsk win: 47% at kick-off, 26% now
  32. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Dinamo Minsk · On: Moustapha Djimet · Off: Artem Sokolovskiy
  33. 66′We said Dinamo Minsk at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 83%. 1–2 · 2–15–83
  34. 66′3 goals already, more than the 2.4 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 2–15–83
  35. 66′Dinamo Minsk ahead on 64′ through Fawaz·Abdullahi. 1–2. 1–2 · 2–15–83
  36. 66′⚽ GOAL · 66' FC Gomel 1–2 Dinamo Minsk
  37. 66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Dinamo Minsk win: 47% at kick-off, 83% now
  38. 66′THE CALL SWINGS · 66' Dinamo Minsk win is now our likeliest result at 83% (was Draw 57%)
  39. 69′We said Dinamo Minsk at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 1–2 · 2–14–85
  40. 73′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 73' Dinamo Minsk win: 47% at kick-off, 87% now
  41. 74′GOAL DISALLOWED · 74' Dinamo Minsk
  42. 74′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 74' Dinamo Minsk win: 47% at kick-off, 19% now
  43. 74′THE CALL SWINGS · 74' Draw is now our likeliest result at 68% (was Dinamo Minsk win 88%)
  44. 76′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 76' Dinamo Minsk win: 47% at kick-off, 17% now
  45. 77′SUBSTITUTION · 76' FC Gomel · On: Raymond Adeola · Off: Denis·Kovalevich
  46. 78′We said Dinamo Minsk at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–2 · 1–10–90
  47. 78′⚽ GOAL · 78' FC Gomel 1–2 Dinamo Minsk · Fawaz·Abdullahi
  48. 78′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 78' Dinamo Minsk win: 47% at kick-off, 90% now
  49. 78′THE CALL SWINGS · 78' Dinamo Minsk win is now our likeliest result at 90% (was Draw 73%)
  50. 85′We said Dinamo Minsk at 47% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 1–2 · 0–5–95
  51. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Dinamo Minsk · On: Gulzhigit Alykulov · Off: Evgeni Malashevich
  52. 85′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Dinamo Minsk · On: Aleksey Ivanov · Off: Aleksey Vakulich
  53. 88′🟨 YELLOW · 86' Moustapha Djimet · Dinamo Minsk
  54. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FC Gomel · On: Maksim Mardas · Off: Vadim Martinkevich
  55. 88′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FC Gomel · On: Pavel·Pashevich · Off: Damir·Shaikhtdinov
  56. 90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Dinamo Minsk win: 47% at kick-off, 97% now
  57. FTFULL TIME FC Gomel 1–2 Dinamo Minsk
  58. FTFC Gomel 1–2 Dinamo Minsk · Dinamo Minsk win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dinamo Minsk are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Gomel 27%, draw 26%, Dinamo Minsk 47%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on FC Gomel v Dinamo MinskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

FC Gomel win27%
Draw26%
Dinamo Minsk win47%

Kick-offSAT 24 OCT · 11:00

RoundMatchday 26

VenueCentral Stadion

Line-ups

FC Gomel

4-4-2

Dinamo Minsk

4-3-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Gomel

Dinamo Minsk

7Days since last match5

Last match: 17 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

Last match: 19 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

2Matches in previous 14 days3

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
2Dinamo Minsk24+2652
7FC Gomel25+1140

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Gomel

4-4-2

44 S. Kleshchuk

16 I. Zayats

90 G. Kukushkin

43 D. Shaykhtdinov

17 V. Martinkevich

33 V. Sotnikov

19 D. Silinskiy

77 V. Lazarev

23 K. Danilin

11 T. Simanenka

21 D. Kovalevich

Coach · A. Gorovtsov

Substitutes

88 · A. Ryzhchenko

3 · S. Matveychik

14 · P. Pashevich

7 · R. Adeola

8 · E. Barsukov

9 · K. Leonovich

13 · M. Mardas

66 · Roman Shapovalov

5 · H. Pratasenia

Dinamo Minsk

4-3-3

47 A. Kudravets

44 G. Gurban

67 R. Begunov

26 V. Kalinin

24 A. Vakulich

8 A. Selyava

78 A. Sokolovskiy

42 F. Abdullahi

10 K. Vardanyan

80 L. Gweth

7 E. Malashevich

Coach · A. Shagoyko

Substitutes

11 · G. Alykulov

13 · V. Poloz

23 · A. Zhechko

17 · I. Bakhar

30 · M. Djimet

5 · D. Dushevskiy

12 · A. Ivanov

3 · M. Shvetsov

1 · I. Shimakovich

27 · M. Aleksandrov

Our number · dinamo minsk winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 20 Oct 03:46 · locked at kick-off
47% The market54%
Us47%
Market54%

We make Dinamo Minsk a 47% chance to win. The market has them at 54%. We are 7 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.4.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · FC Gomel v Dinamo Minsk0.99 – 1.41
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 AugW3 D1 L2 · W4 D1 L1
Table places · points 40 v 527 v 2
The market · Dinamo Minsk win54% · ours 47%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
45%50%55%60% 18 OCT 01:2324 OCT 10:39
Our probability · Dinamo Minsk win The market, margin stripped

Published at 46%, 47% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 54% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FC Gomel win27%20%+7
Draw26%27%−1
Dinamo Minsk win47%54%−7
Over 2.5 goals43%43%0
Both teams to score47%48%−1
Over 1.5 goals68%68%0
Over 3.5 goals22%23%−1
FC Gomel or draw53%46%+7
FC Gomel clean sheet25%––
Dinamo Minsk clean sheet38%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.1%
0123450 9.1 13.1 9.0 4.3 1 9.3 12.1 8.6 4.1 2 4.5 6.1 4.3 2.0 3 2.1 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+FC Gomel down, Dinamo Minsk across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.20
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored3 of 10
Last meetingsDIN 2–1 FCG · DIN 0–0 FCG · FCG 0–1 DIN · DIN 2–0 FCG

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 28 Aug

FC GOMEL

WWLWLD1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–5 · 2–2

DINAMO MINSK

DLWWWW0–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 3–1 · 2–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1ML Vitebsk24+3253
2Dinamo Minsk24+2652
3FC Isloch Minsk R.24+2149
4Dinamo Brest25+1644
5Neman25+1043
6FC Vitebsk25+840
7FC Gomel25+1140
8FC Minsk26−334
9Torpedo Zhodino25−133
10Slavia Mozyr25−428
11Baranovichi26−1628
12Arsenal25−2023
13Bate Borisov25−1321
14Belshina24−1921
15FC Dnepr Mogilev25−1619
16Naftan25−3217

The competition's standings before kick-off.