FC Dnepr Mogilev v Dinamo Minsk prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 11 Oct 21:47

FC Dnepr Mogilev 2–3 Dinamo Minsk DINAMO MINSK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinamo Minsk win~~67%

~~The market said~~65%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.169

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.189

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay8 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Minsk win at 67%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Dinamo Minsk 67% before kick-off, 67% now. 0–0 · 12–21–67
4′Little has changed for our model: Dinamo Minsk 67% before kick-off, 66% now. 0–0 · 13–21–66
23′Dinamo Minsk ahead on 6′ through Evgeni Malashevich. 0–1. 0–1 · 3–10–87
25′Dinamo Minsk ahead on 6′ through Evgeni Malashevich. 0–1. 0–1 · 3–10–87
45′We said Dinamo Minsk at 67% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 87%. 0–1 · 2–11–87
54′Aleksandr Mikhalenko scores for Dinamo Minsk on 48′ — 1–2. 1–2 · 2–11–88
58′53′ and it is 1–2: Aleksandr Selyava on the scoresheet for FC Dnepr Mogilev. 1–2 · 1–10–88
79′Dinamo Minsk ahead on 70′ through Evgeni Malashevich. 1–3. 1–3 · 0–0–100
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Dinamo Minsk win: 67% at kick-off, 88% now
85′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 85' Dinamo Minsk win: 67% at kick-off, 100% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Dinamo Minsk win: 67% at kick-off, 100% now
86′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 86' Dinamo Minsk win: 67% at kick-off, 88% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Dinamo Minsk win: 67% at kick-off, 100% now
87′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 87' Dinamo Minsk win: 67% at kick-off, 88% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Dinamo Minsk win: 67% at kick-off, 100% now
88′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 88' Dinamo Minsk win: 67% at kick-off, 88% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Dinamo Minsk win: 67% at kick-off, 100% now
89′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 89' Dinamo Minsk win: 67% at kick-off, 88% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Dinamo Minsk win: 67% at kick-off, 88% now
90′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 90' Dinamo Minsk win: 67% at kick-off, 100% now
FTFULL TIME FC Dnepr Mogilev 2–3 Dinamo Minsk
FTFC Dnepr Mogilev 2–3 Dinamo Minsk · Dinamo Minsk win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

An AI preview before kick-off and a review after full time, written from our recorded data. It is included with the 30-day pass.

The model’s prediction on this page stays free.

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Pre-match prediction

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

FC Dnepr Mogilev win13%

Draw20%

Dinamo Minsk win67%

Kick-offSUN 11 OCT · 17:30

VenueSpartak Stadium

Line-ups

FC Dnepr Mogilev

4-1-4-1

Dinamo Minsk

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

FC Dnepr Mogilev

Dinamo Minsk

21Days since last match22

0Matches in previous 14 days0

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Dinamo Minsk	21	+21	43
16	FC Dnepr Mogilev	23	−16	16

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

FC Dnepr Mogilev

4-1-4-1

33 A. Sinenko

18 A. Mikhalenko

5 A. Varganov

8 S. Rusak

15 M. Kasarab

89 V. Harutyunyan

88 K. Kirilenko

55 N. Krasnov

11 D. Lisakovich

10 K. Zabelin

21 E. Karpitskiy

Coach · Igor Kriushenko

Substitutes

22 · N. Sednev

3 · N. Perovic

7 · M. Gurbanov

23 · A. Dunaev

27 · R. Piletskiy

37 · K. Tsepenkov

66 · N. Tereshchuk

99 · V. Stepanenko

17 · A. Potapenko

9 · E. Torosyan

Dinamo Minsk

4-2-3-1

1 I. Shimakovich

44 G. Gurban

3 M. Shvetsov

12 A. Ivanov

24 A. Vakulich

8 A. Selyava

42 F. Abdullahi

7 E. Malashevich

5 D. Dushevskiy

19 R. Guibero

10 K. Vardanyan

Coach · Aleksandr Shagoyko

Substitutes

47 · A. Kudravets

2 · M. Dubatovka

11 · G. Alykulov

13 · V. Poloz

17 · I. Bakhar

25 · A. Toure

27 · M. Aleksandrov

30 · M. Djimet

78 · A. Sokolovskiy

80 · L. Gweth

Our number · dinamo minsk winPublished 11 Oct 17:22

67% The market65%

Us67%

~~Market~~65%

We make Dinamo Minsk a 67% chance to win. The market has them at 65%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 0.7–2.0.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dinamo minsk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 59% to 64% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
FC Dnepr Mogilev win	13%	13%	0
Draw	20%	22%	−2
Dinamo Minsk win	67%	65%	+2
Over 2.5 goals	49%	49%	0
Both teams to score	42%	44%	−2
Over 1.5 goals	74%	72%	+2
Over 3.5 goals	28%	29%	−1
FC Dnepr Mogilev or draw	33%	35%	−2
FC Dnepr Mogilev clean sheet	15%	–	–
Dinamo Minsk clean sheet	50%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.9%

0123450 7.2 13.9 13.2 8.7 4.4 1 5.2 9.2 8.9 5.8 2.9 2 3.4 3.2 2.0 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+FC Dnepr Mogilev down, Dinamo Minsk across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,350 Premier League matches up to 11 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.6% of games this season, across 184 played.

Head to head

5 previous meetings, 2.80 goals a meeting; 2 of 5 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

FC Dnepr Mogilev at home: 1.33 scored, 1.17 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Minsk away: 1.17 scored, 0.33 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.70 goals for FC Dnepr Mogilev, 1.96 for Dinamo Minsk. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.80

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 5

~~Both scored~~1 of 5

~~Last meetings~~DIN 3–1 FCD · DIN 2–0 FCD · FCD 0–2 DIN · DIN 4–0 FCD

Form · last six in Premier League

FC DNEPR MOGILEV

DDDLDL1–1 · 0–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–4

DINAMO MINSK

LLWDLW0–1 · 0–1 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Isloch Minsk R.	22	+19	45
2	ML Vitebsk	21	+25	44
3	Dinamo Minsk	21	+21	43
4	Dinamo Brest	24	+16	43
5	Neman	23	+9	40
6	FC Gomel	23	+15	39
7	FC Vitebsk	23	+7	36
8	FC Minsk	24	+1	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	23	0	30
10	Slavia Mozyr	23	−4	25
11	Baranovichi	24	−17	25
12	Arsenal	24	−18	23
13	Bate Borisov	23	−10	21
14	Belshina	23	−17	21
15	Naftan	24	−31	17
16	FC Dnepr Mogilev	23	−16	16