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FC Dnepr Mogilev v Bate Borisov
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Bate BorisovPremier League · SUN 18 OCT · Spartak Stadium
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Bate Borisov win at 42%.
- 3′Much as we predicted: Bate Borisov was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 31–27–42
- 3′KICK-OFF FC Dnepr Mogilev v Bate Borisov
- 13′FC Dnepr Mogilev find the net on 12′. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–23–17
- 13′⚽ GOAL · 12' FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–0 Bate Borisov
- 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Bate Borisov win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
- 13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' FC Dnepr Mogilev win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Bate Borisov win 17%)
- 14′We said Bate Borisov at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 60–23–17
- 24′We said Bate Borisov at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–24–14
- 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 63–24–13
- 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Bate Borisov win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
- 40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Vladislav Varaksa · Bate Borisov
- 45′We said Bate Borisov at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
- 45′HALF-TIME FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–0 Bate Borisov
- 48′SECOND HALF FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–0 Bate Borisov
- 50′Vladislav Varaksa scores for Bate Borisov on 49′. 1–0 · 69–23–8
- 51′⚽ GOAL · 49' FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–1 Bate Borisov · Vladislav Varaksa (assist erick puerto)
- 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Bate Borisov win: 42% at kick-off, 31% now
- 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was FC Dnepr Mogilev win 24%)
- 52′We said Bate Borisov at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 24–46–30
- 54′We said Bate Borisov at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 23–47–29
- 59′🟨 YELLOW · 57' pavel dubovskiy · Bate Borisov
- 64′We said Bate Borisov at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 20–56–24
- 67′66′: Kirill Zabelin on the scoresheet for FC Dnepr Mogilev. 1–1 · 18–59–23
- 67′We said Bate Borisov at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 77–19–4
- 67′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 77–19–4
- 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FC Dnepr Mogilev · On: Egor Karpitskiy · Off: Nikita Tereshchuk
- 67′⚽ GOAL · 66' FC Dnepr Mogilev 2–1 Bate Borisov · Kirill Zabelin
- 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Bate Borisov win: 42% at kick-off, 4% now
- 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' FC Dnepr Mogilev win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Bate Borisov · On: vladislav yatskevich · Off: Egor Rusakov
- 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Maksim Kasarab · FC Dnepr Mogilev
- 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Bate Borisov win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
- 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' vadim harutyunyan · FC Dnepr Mogilev
- 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FC Dnepr Mogilev · On: Aleksey Dunaev · Off: Nikita krasnov
- 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Bate Borisov · On: ales sakhonchik · Off: Ivan Mikhniuk
- 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Bate Borisov · On: Marat Titov · Off: Nikolay Bochko
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FC Dnepr Mogilev · On: Andrey Denisyuk · Off: Dmitriy·Lisakovich
- 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FC Dnepr Mogilev · On: R. Pilecki · Off: Kirill Kirilenko
- FTFULL TIME FC Dnepr Mogilev 2–1 Bate Borisov
- FTFC Dnepr Mogilev 2–1 Bate Borisov · Bate Borisov win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
Bate Borisov are narrow favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: FC Dnepr Mogilev 31%, draw 27%, Bate Borisov 42%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
FC Dnepr Mogilev win31%
Bate Borisov win42%Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00
RoundMatchday 25
VenueSpartak Stadium
Match timeline
All events
FC Dnepr MogilevMIN
Bate BorisovEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
FC Dnepr Mogilev
5-3-2
Bate Borisov
3-4-3
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
FC Dnepr Mogilev
Bate Borisov
Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)
Last match: 14 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
FC Dnepr Mogilev
5-3-2
8 S. Rusak
33 A. Sinenko
5 A. Varganov
15 M. Kasarab
17 A. Potapenko
10 K. Zabelin
88 K. Kirilenko
89 V. Harutyunyan
11 D. Lisakovich
66 N. Tereshchuk
55 N. Krasnov
Coach · I. Kriushenko
Substitutes
77 · Dmitri Gushchenko
23 · A. Dunaev
29 · A. Denisyuk
74 · David Cherkasov
3 · Nenad Perović
21 · E. Karpitskiy
27 · R. Piletskiy
37 · K. Tsepenkov
Bate Borisov
3-4-3
16 D. Sokol
88 P. Dubovskiy
6 H. Moussakhanian
28 I. Mikhnyuk
23 N. Bochko
52 E. Kress
10 E. Rusakov
25 N. Neskoromny
17 Y. Kovalev
37 E. Puerto
26 V. Varaksa
Coach · V. Rogozhkin
Substitutes
30 · T. Gagloev
55 · K. Kaplenko
47 · A. Sakhonchik
35 · A. Skopets
21 · M. Titov
24 · V. Yatskevich
13 · Y. Khramtsevich
18 · P. Kolosovskiy
5 · M. Sakuta
7 · V. Angban
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
FC Dnepr Mogilev
5-3-2
8 S. Rusak
33 A. Sinenko
5 A. Varganov
15 M. Kasarab
17 A. Potapenko
10 K. Zabelin
88 K. Kirilenko
89 V. Harutyunyan
11 D. Lisakovich
66 N. Tereshchuk
55 N. Krasnov
Coach · I. Kriushenko
Substitutes
77 · Dmitri Gushchenko
23 · A. Dunaev
29 · A. Denisyuk
74 · David Cherkasov
3 · Nenad Perović
21 · E. Karpitskiy
27 · R. Piletskiy
37 · K. Tsepenkov
Bate Borisov
3-4-3
16 D. Sokol
88 P. Dubovskiy
6 H. Moussakhanian
28 I. Mikhnyuk
23 N. Bochko
52 E. Kress
10 E. Rusakov
25 N. Neskoromny
17 Y. Kovalev
37 E. Puerto
26 V. Varaksa
Coach · V. Rogozhkin
Substitutes
30 · T. Gagloev
55 · K. Kaplenko
47 · A. Sakhonchik
35 · A. Skopets
21 · M. Titov
24 · V. Yatskevich
13 · Y. Khramtsevich
18 · P. Kolosovskiy
5 · M. Sakuta
7 · V. Angban
We make Bate Borisov a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| FC Dnepr Mogilev win | 31% | 43% | −12 |
| Draw | 27% | 28% | −1 |
| Bate Borisov win | 42% | 29% | +13 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 43% | 45% | −2 |
| Both teams to score | 48% | 50% | −2 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 69% | 69% | 0 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 23% | 26% | −3 |
| FC Dnepr Mogilev or draw | 58% | 71% | −13 |
| FC Dnepr Mogilev clean sheet | 27% | – | – |
| Bate Borisov clean sheet | 34% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
5 meetings since 2021Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 24 Aug
FC DNEPR MOGILEV
BATE BORISOV
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 23 | +31 | 50 |
| 2 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 24 | +21 | 49 |
| 3 | Dinamo Minsk | 23 | +24 | 49 |
| 4 | Dinamo Brest | 25 | +16 | 44 |
| 5 | Neman | 24 | +11 | 43 |
| 6 | FC Vitebsk | 25 | +8 | 40 |
| 7 | FC Gomel | 25 | +11 | 40 |
| 8 | FC Minsk | 25 | −1 | 34 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 24 | −2 | 30 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 24 | −6 | 25 |
| 11 | Baranovichi | 25 | −18 | 25 |
| 12 | Arsenal | 24 | −18 | 23 |
| 13 | Bate Borisov | 24 | −12 | 21 |
| 14 | Belshina | 23 | −17 | 21 |
| 15 | Naftan | 24 | −31 | 17 |
| 16 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 24 | −17 | 16 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
ML Vitebsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Dinamo Minsk
Dinamo Brest
Neman
FC Vitebsk
FC Gomel
FC Minsk
Torpedo Zhodino
Slavia Mozyr
Baranovichi
Arsenal
Belshina
Naftan