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FC Dnepr Mogilev v Bate Borisov

FC Dnepr Mogilev
2–1Full time
Bate Borisov

Premier League · SUN 18 OCT · Spartak Stadium

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:04
FC Dnepr Mogilev 2–1 Bate Borisov BATE BORISOV WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Bate Borisov win42%
The market said29%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.723
The market’s Brier score0.489

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay13 notes · 26 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Bate Borisov win at 42%.
  2. 3′Much as we predicted: Bate Borisov was 42% before kick-off and our model makes it 42% now. 0–0 · 31–27–42
  3. 3′KICK-OFF FC Dnepr Mogilev v Bate Borisov
  4. 13′FC Dnepr Mogilev find the net on 12′. 1–0. 1–0 · 60–23–17
  5. 13′⚽ GOAL · 12' FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–0 Bate Borisov
  6. 13′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 13' Bate Borisov win: 42% at kick-off, 17% now
  7. 13′THE CALL SWINGS · 13' FC Dnepr Mogilev win is now our likeliest result at 60% (was Bate Borisov win 17%)
  8. 14′We said Bate Borisov at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 17%. 1–0 · 60–23–17
  9. 24′We said Bate Borisov at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 14%. 1–0 · 62–24–14
  10. 30′Goals are coming at about the 2.4 we expected. 1–0 · 63–24–13
  11. 33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Bate Borisov win: 42% at kick-off, 12% now
  12. 40′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Vladislav Varaksa · Bate Borisov
  13. 45′We said Bate Borisov at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 9%. 1–0 · 67–23–9
  14. 45′HALF-TIME FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–0 Bate Borisov
  15. 48′SECOND HALF FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–0 Bate Borisov
  16. 50′Vladislav Varaksa scores for Bate Borisov on 49′. 1–0 · 69–23–8
  17. 51′⚽ GOAL · 49' FC Dnepr Mogilev 1–1 Bate Borisov · Vladislav Varaksa (assist erick puerto)
  18. 51′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 51' Bate Borisov win: 42% at kick-off, 31% now
  19. 51′THE CALL SWINGS · 51' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was FC Dnepr Mogilev win 24%)
  20. 52′We said Bate Borisov at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 30%. 1–1 · 24–46–30
  21. 54′We said Bate Borisov at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 29%. 1–1 · 23–47–29
  22. 59′🟨 YELLOW · 57' pavel dubovskiy · Bate Borisov
  23. 64′We said Bate Borisov at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–1 · 20–56–24
  24. 67′66′: Kirill Zabelin on the scoresheet for FC Dnepr Mogilev. 1–1 · 18–59–23
  25. 67′We said Bate Borisov at 42%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–1 · 77–19–4
  26. 67′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.4 across ninety minutes. 2–1 · 77–19–4
  27. 67′SUBSTITUTION · 66' FC Dnepr Mogilev · On: Egor Karpitskiy · Off: Nikita Tereshchuk
  28. 67′⚽ GOAL · 66' FC Dnepr Mogilev 2–1 Bate Borisov · Kirill Zabelin
  29. 67′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 67' Bate Borisov win: 42% at kick-off, 4% now
  30. 67′THE CALL SWINGS · 67' FC Dnepr Mogilev win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 19%)
  31. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Bate Borisov · On: vladislav yatskevich · Off: Egor Rusakov
  32. 72′🟨 YELLOW · 71' Maksim Kasarab · FC Dnepr Mogilev
  33. 72′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 72' Bate Borisov win: 42% at kick-off, 2% now
  34. 75′🟨 YELLOW · 74' vadim harutyunyan · FC Dnepr Mogilev
  35. 76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' FC Dnepr Mogilev · On: Aleksey Dunaev · Off: Nikita krasnov
  36. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Bate Borisov · On: ales sakhonchik · Off: Ivan Mikhniuk
  37. 81′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Bate Borisov · On: Marat Titov · Off: Nikolay Bochko
  38. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FC Dnepr Mogilev · On: Andrey Denisyuk · Off: Dmitriy·Lisakovich
  39. 86′SUBSTITUTION · 86' FC Dnepr Mogilev · On: R. Pilecki · Off: Kirill Kirilenko
  40. FTFULL TIME FC Dnepr Mogilev 2–1 Bate Borisov
  41. FTFC Dnepr Mogilev 2–1 Bate Borisov · Bate Borisov win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Bate Borisov are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: FC Dnepr Mogilev 31%, draw 27%, Bate Borisov 42%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 48%.

The AI’s read on FC Dnepr Mogilev v Bate BorisovBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

FC Dnepr Mogilev win31%
Draw27%
Bate Borisov win42%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueSpartak Stadium

Line-ups

FC Dnepr Mogilev

5-3-2

Bate Borisov

3-4-3

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

FC Dnepr Mogilev

Bate Borisov

7Days since last match4

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

Last match: 14 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
13Bate Borisov24−1221
16FC Dnepr Mogilev24−1716

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

FC Dnepr Mogilev

5-3-2

8 S. Rusak

33 A. Sinenko

5 A. Varganov

15 M. Kasarab

17 A. Potapenko

10 K. Zabelin

88 K. Kirilenko

89 V. Harutyunyan

11 D. Lisakovich

66 N. Tereshchuk

55 N. Krasnov

Coach · I. Kriushenko

Substitutes

77 · Dmitri Gushchenko

23 · A. Dunaev

29 · A. Denisyuk

74 · David Cherkasov

3 · Nenad Perović

21 · E. Karpitskiy

27 · R. Piletskiy

37 · K. Tsepenkov

Bate Borisov

3-4-3

16 D. Sokol

88 P. Dubovskiy

6 H. Moussakhanian

28 I. Mikhnyuk

23 N. Bochko

52 E. Kress

10 E. Rusakov

25 N. Neskoromny

17 Y. Kovalev

37 E. Puerto

26 V. Varaksa

Coach · V. Rogozhkin

Substitutes

30 · T. Gagloev

55 · K. Kaplenko

47 · A. Sakhonchik

35 · A. Skopets

21 · M. Titov

24 · V. Yatskevich

13 · Y. Khramtsevich

18 · P. Kolosovskiy

5 · M. Sakuta

7 · V. Angban

Our number · bate borisov winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 15 Oct 04:40 · locked at kick-off
42% The market29%
Us42%
Market29%

We make Bate Borisov a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 29%. We are 13 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.3.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · FC Dnepr Mogilev v Bate Borisov1.09 – 1.32
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 24 AugW0 D3 L3 · W1 D1 L4
Table places · points 16 v 2116 v 13
The market · Bate Borisov win29% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
20%25%30%35%40%45% 11 OCT 04:0118 OCT 12:38
Our probability · Bate Borisov win The market, margin stripped

Published at 43%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 29% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
FC Dnepr Mogilev win31%43%−12
Draw27%28%−1
Bate Borisov win42%29%+13
Over 2.5 goals43%45%−2
Both teams to score48%50%−2
Over 1.5 goals69%69%0
Over 3.5 goals23%26%−3
FC Dnepr Mogilev or draw58%71%−13
FC Dnepr Mogilev clean sheet27%––
Bate Borisov clean sheet34%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.4%
0123450 9.1 12.1 7.8 3.5 1 10.0 12.4 8.2 3.7 2 5.4 6.9 4.5 2.0 3 2.0 2.6 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+FC Dnepr Mogilev down, Bate Borisov across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

5 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting2.40
Over 2.52 of 5
Both scored4 of 5
Last meetingsBAT 1–1 FCD · FCD 1–1 BAT · BAT 1–1 FCD · BAT 2–1 FCD

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 24 Aug

FC DNEPR MOGILEV

DDLDLL0–0 · 0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 2–3

BATE BORISOV

LLDLWL0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1ML Vitebsk23+3150
2FC Isloch Minsk R.24+2149
3Dinamo Minsk23+2449
4Dinamo Brest25+1644
5Neman24+1143
6FC Vitebsk25+840
7FC Gomel25+1140
8FC Minsk25−134
9Torpedo Zhodino24−230
10Slavia Mozyr24−625
11Baranovichi25−1825
12Arsenal24−1823
13Bate Borisov24−1221
14Belshina23−1721
15Naftan24−3117
16FC Dnepr Mogilev24−1716

The competition's standings before kick-off.