Dinamo Minsk v Slavia Mozyr prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 15 Oct 19:01

Dinamo Minsk 3–1 Slavia Mozyr DINAMO MINSK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–0 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Dinamo Minsk win~~61%

~~The market said~~61%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.233

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.226

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay14 notes · 33 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Minsk win at 61%.
2′Much as we predicted: Dinamo Minsk was 61% before kick-off and our model makes it 61% now. 0–0 · 61–23–16
2′KICK-OFF Dinamo Minsk v Slavia Mozyr
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' Dinamo Minsk win: 61% at kick-off, 51% now
38′We said Dinamo Minsk at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 49%. 0–0 · 49–35–16
39′🟨 YELLOW · 39' Aleksey Ivanov · Dinamo Minsk
40′Dinamo Minsk have had 8 attempts to 3 and it is still 0–0. 0–0 · 48–36–16
45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Minsk 0–0 Slavia Mozyr
47′SECOND HALF Dinamo Minsk 0–0 Slavia Mozyr
48′We said Dinamo Minsk at 61%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 44%. 0–0 · 44–40–15
48′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Kirill Chernook · Slavia Mozyr
54′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 54' Dinamo Minsk win: 61% at kick-off, 41% now
55′53′: Artem Sokolovskiy on the scoresheet for Dinamo Minsk. 0–0 · 40–45–14
55′We published Dinamo Minsk at 61%. Our model now makes it 86%. 1–0 · 86–12–2
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Draw is now our likeliest result at 45% (was Dinamo Minsk win 40%)
55′⚽ GOAL · 53' Dinamo Minsk 1–0 Slavia Mozyr · Evgeni Malashevich (assist Artem Sokolovskiy)
55′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 55' Dinamo Minsk win: 61% at kick-off, 86% now
55′THE CALL SWINGS · 55' Dinamo Minsk win is now our likeliest result at 86% (was Draw 12%)
65′karen vardanyan scores for Dinamo Minsk on 65′. 1–0 · 87–11–1
66′We published Dinamo Minsk at 61%. Our model now makes it 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
66′Goals are coming at about the 2.5 we expected. 2–0 · 99–1–0
66′⚽ GOAL · 65' Dinamo Minsk 2–0 Slavia Mozyr · karen vardanyan (assist Moustapha Djimet)
66′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Slavia Mozyr · On: Aleksandr Batichev · Off: Evgeni Shevchenko
66′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 66' Dinamo Minsk win: 61% at kick-off, 99% now
67′SUBSTITUTION · 67' Slavia Mozyr · On: Ricky Stephane Ngatchou Kamtchouang · Off: Aleksey Antilevski
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Dinamo Minsk · On: Vladislav Poloz · Off: Fawaz·Abdullahi
68′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Dinamo Minsk · On: Leonard Chatelin·Gweth · Off: karen vardanyan
69′🟨 YELLOW · 69' Aleksandr Selyava · Dinamo Minsk
73′🟨 YELLOW · 48' Aleksandr Dzhigero · Slavia Mozyr
76′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Slavia Mozyr · On: Terentiy Lutsevich · Off: Ricky Stephane Ngatchou Kamtchouang Corrected
77′We published Dinamo Minsk at 61%. Our model now makes it over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
78′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
78′SUBSTITUTION · 75' Slavia Mozyr · On: Terentiy Lutsevich · Off: Nikita Romanov Corrected
78′⚽ GOAL · 78' Dinamo Minsk 3–0 Slavia Mozyr
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Slavia Mozyr · On: Ilya Verenich · Off: Pavel·Chikida Corrected
79′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Slavia Mozyr · On: Dimitri Yashin · Off: Aleksandr Dzhigero
80′78′: Vladislav Poloz on the scoresheet for Dinamo Minsk, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Dinamo Minsk · On: Aleksey Zhechko · Off: Evgeni Malashevich
80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Slavia Mozyr · On: Ilya Verenich · Off: Aleksandr Derzhinskiy
82′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Slavia Mozyr · On: Terentiy Lutsevich · Off: Nikita Romanov
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Dinamo Minsk · On: Roman Begunov · Off: Aleksey Ivanov
82′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Dinamo Minsk · On: Gulzhigit Alykulov · Off: Moustapha Djimet
88′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Kirill Chernook · Slavia Mozyr
94′Ilya Verenich scores for Slavia Mozyr on 90′. 3–0 · 100–0–0
95′4 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 3–1 · 100–0–0
95′⚽ GOAL · 90+3' Dinamo Minsk 3–1 Slavia Mozyr · Ilya Verenich
96′🟨 YELLOW · 90+6' Leonard Chatelin·Gweth · Dinamo Minsk
FTFULL TIME Dinamo Minsk 3–1 Slavia Mozyr
FTDinamo Minsk 3–1 Slavia Mozyr · Dinamo Minsk win: right · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–0 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dinamo Minsk are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Minsk 61%, draw 23%, Slavia Mozyr 16%. Over 2.5 goals 47%, both teams to score 44%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Minsk v Slavia MozyrBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 14 Oct 13:28 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Minsk win61%

Draw23%

Slavia Mozyr win16%

Kick-offTHU 15 OCT · 16:30

RoundMatchday 16

VenueDinamo Stadium

Line-ups

Dinamo Minsk

3-4-3

Slavia Mozyr

4-5-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Minsk

Slavia Mozyr

4Days since last match5

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Dinamo Minsk	22	+22	46
10	Slavia Mozyr	23	−4	25

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dinamo Minsk

3-4-3

1 I. Shimakovich

8 A. Selyava

12 A. Ivanov

26 V. Kalinin

7 E. Malashevich

42 F. Abdullahi

30 M. Djimet

24 A. Vakulich

44 G. Gurban

10 K. Vardanyan

78 A. Sokolovskiy

Coach · A. Shagoyko

Substitutes

80 · L. Gweth

17 · I. Bakhar

47 · A. Kudravets

2 · M. Dubatovka

3 · M. Shvetsov

67 · R. Begunov

11 · G. Alykulov

13 · V. Poloz

19 · R. Guibero

23 · A. Zhechko

Slavia Mozyr

4-5-1

1 K. Veretynskiy

11 A. Antilevskiy

6 Y. Kuznetsov

18 N. Melnikov

2 A. Shemruk

17 K. Chernook

49 A. Dzhigero

21 E. Shevchenko

27 Pavel Chikida

19 A. Derzhinskiy

7 N. Romanov

Coach · I. Bionchik

Substitutes

30 · V. Likhtin

44 · T. Lutsevich

13 · Nikita Zelimov

3 · Ricky Ngatchou

23 · V. Ignatjev

9 · O. Batyshchev

88 · D. Yashin

16 · E. Abramovich

20 · I. Verenich

Our number · dinamo minsk winFirst published 14 Oct 13:28 · locked at kick-off

61% The market61%

Us61%

~~Market~~61%

We make Dinamo Minsk a 61% chance to win. The market has them at 61%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.8–0.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dinamo Minsk v Slavia Mozyr~~1.77 – 0.78

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 22 Aug~~W3 D1 L2 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 46 v 25~~3 v 10

~~The market · Dinamo Minsk win~~61% · ours 61%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dinamo Minsk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 67% to 61% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo Minsk win	61%	61%	0
Draw	23%	23%	0
Slavia Mozyr win	16%	16%	0
Over 2.5 goals	47%	53%	−6
Both teams to score	44%	49%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	72%	73%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	25%	33%	−8
Dinamo Minsk or draw	84%	84%	0
Dinamo Minsk clean sheet	46%	–	–
Slavia Mozyr clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–0 at 14.0%

0123450 8.1 6.3 2.4 1 14.0 10.5 4.2 2 12.1 9.2 3.6 3 7.2 5.4 2.1 4 3.3 2.5 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Minsk down, Slavia Mozyr across0–5 goals a side shown (98.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,354 Premier League matches up to 15 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.7% of games this season, across 188 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 2.30 goals a meeting; 5 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dinamo Minsk at home: 2.00 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Slavia Mozyr away: 1.00 scored, 1.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.77 goals for Dinamo Minsk, 0.78 for Slavia Mozyr. Most likely score 1–0.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~2.30

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 10

~~Both scored~~5 of 10

~~Last meetings~~SLA 1–2 DIN · DIN 3–1 SLA · SLA 3–0 DIN · DIN 2–0 SLA

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 22 Aug

DINAMO MINSK

LWDLWW0–1 · 5–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–2

SLAVIA MOZYR

DLWLLL0–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–1 · 1–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ML Vitebsk	22	+29	47
2	FC Isloch Minsk R.	23	+19	46
3	Dinamo Minsk	22	+22	46
4	Neman	24	+11	43
5	Dinamo Brest	24	+16	43
6	FC Gomel	24	+11	39
7	FC Vitebsk	24	+7	37
8	FC Minsk	24	+1	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	23	0	30
10	Slavia Mozyr	23	−4	25
11	Baranovichi	24	−17	25
12	Arsenal	24	−18	23
13	Bate Borisov	24	−12	21
14	Belshina	23	−17	21
15	Naftan	24	−31	17
16	FC Dnepr Mogilev	24	−17	16