Dinamo Minsk v Arsenal prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 19 Oct 20:30

Dinamo Minsk 2–0 Arsenal DINAMO MINSK WIN · RIGHTOVER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT2–0 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Dinamo Minsk win~~73%

~~The market said~~76%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.110

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.092

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Minsk win at 73%.
3′Little has changed for our model: Dinamo Minsk 73% before kick-off, 72% now. 0–0 · 72–18–10
3′KICK-OFF Dinamo Minsk v Arsenal
15′A goal for Dinamo Minsk on 15′. 0–0 · 69–21–10
30′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 30' Dinamo Minsk win: 73% at kick-off, 63% now
35′We said Dinamo Minsk at 73%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 61%. 0–0 · 61–28–10
39′We said Dinamo Minsk at 73%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 59%. 0–0 · 59–30–10
41′A goal for Dinamo Minsk on 40′. 0–0 · 58–31–10
41′We said Dinamo Minsk at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 1–0 · 90–9–2
41′⚽ GOAL · 40' Dinamo Minsk 1–0 Arsenal · karen vardanyan
41′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 41' Dinamo Minsk win: 73% at kick-off, 90% now
42′The goal count is tracking the 2.8 we expected. 1–0 · 90–9–2
45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Minsk 1–0 Arsenal
46′SECOND HALF Dinamo Minsk 1–0 Arsenal
47′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Arsenal · On: Khetag Badoev · Off: Andrei Zaleski
59′SUBSTITUTION · 57' Dinamo Minsk · On: Vladislav Poloz · Off: Artem Sokolovskiy
68′We said Dinamo Minsk at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 2–0 · 99–1–0
68′Dinamo Minsk ahead on 66′ through karen vardanyan. 2–0. 2–0 · 99–1–0
68′⚽ GOAL · 68' Dinamo Minsk 2–0 Arsenal
68′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 68' Dinamo Minsk win: 73% at kick-off, 99% now
72′We said Dinamo Minsk at 73% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to over 99%. 2–0 · 100–0–0
74′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Dinamo Minsk · On: Gulzhigit Alykulov · Off: Evgeni Malashevich
75′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Dinamo Minsk · On: Leonard Chatelin·Gweth · Off: Moustapha Djimet
75′SUBSTITUTION · 74' Arsenal · On: Maksim·Matveev · Off: Vladislav Vasilyev
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Arsenal · On: Valeri Gorbachik · Off: Dmitri Antilevski
83′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Arsenal · On: Ilya Vasin · Off: Daniel Volskiy
84′SUBSTITUTION · 82' Dinamo Minsk · On: Roman Begunov · Off: Aleksey Vakulich
FTFULL TIME Dinamo Minsk 2–0 Arsenal
FTDinamo Minsk 2–0 Arsenal · Dinamo Minsk win: right · Over 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 2–0 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dinamo Minsk are clear favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Minsk 73%, draw 17%, Arsenal 9%. Over 2.5 goals 53%, both teams to score 40%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Minsk v ArsenalBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Minsk win73%

Draw17%

Arsenal win9%

Kick-offMON 19 OCT · 18:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueDinamo Stadium

Line-ups

Dinamo Minsk

4-3-3

Arsenal

3-5-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Minsk

Arsenal

4Days since last match10

Last match: 15 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

2Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
3	Dinamo Minsk	23	+24	49
12	Arsenal	24	−18	23

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dinamo Minsk

4-3-3

47 A. Kudravets

3 M. Shvetsov

12 A. Ivanov

26 V. Kalinin

24 A. Vakulich

78 A. Sokolovskiy

8 A. Selyava

42 F. Abdullahi

30 M. Djimet

10 K. Vardanyan

7 E. Malashevich

Coach · A. Shagoyko

Substitutes

27 · M. Aleksandrov

11 · G. Alykulov

17 · I. Bakhar

67 · R. Begunov

2 · M. Dubatovka

5 · D. Dushevskiy

80 · L. Gweth

13 · V. Poloz

1 · I. Shimakovich

23 · A. Zhechko

Arsenal

3-5-2

1 I. Sanko

31 A. Zaleskiy

41 D. Lutik

23 D. Polyakov

2 E. Bozhko

18 D. Volskiy

46 V. Vasilyev

77 N. Sotnikov

13 I. Oreshkevich

69 R. Ermolin

90 D. Antilevskiy

Coach · Igor Voronkov

Substitutes

4 · Ramires

79 · K. Badoev

33 · V. Gorbachik

8 · N. Kaplenko

71 · M. Matveev

10 · S. Sazonchik

30 · A. Soroko

26 · V. Tkachenko

11 · D. Tsallagov

9 · I. Vasin

Our number · dinamo minsk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

73% The market76%

Us73%

~~Market~~76%

We make Dinamo Minsk a 73% chance to win. The market has them at 76%. We are 3 points less confident than the market. The model expects 2.2–0.6.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Dinamo Minsk v Arsenal~~2.19 – 0.61

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 22 Aug~~W4 D1 L1 · W0 D2 L4

~~Table places · points 49 v 23~~3 v 12

~~The market · Dinamo Minsk win~~76% · ours 73%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Dinamo Minsk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 76% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Dinamo Minsk win	73%	76%	−3
Draw	17%	16%	+1
Arsenal win	9%	8%	+1
Over 2.5 goals	53%	62%	−9
Both teams to score	40%	45%	−5
Over 1.5 goals	76%	82%	−6
Over 3.5 goals	31%	42%	−11
Dinamo Minsk or draw	91%	92%	−1
Dinamo Minsk clean sheet	55%	–	–
Arsenal clean sheet	12%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 2–0 at 14.3%

0123450 6.3 4.0 1 13.6 7.9 2.5 2 14.3 8.5 2.6 3 10.4 6.2 4 5.8 3.4 5 2.7

under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Minsk down, Arsenal across0–5 goals a side shown (97.1% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,361 Premier League matches up to 18 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.1% of games this season, across 195 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 1.86 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Dinamo Minsk at home: 2.33 scored, 0.67 conceded a game (last 6). Arsenal away: 1.00 scored, 2.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

2.19 goals for Dinamo Minsk, 0.61 for Arsenal. Most likely score 2–0.

Line-ups

Confirmed 19 Oct 17:30. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~1.86

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~ARS 0–1 DIN · DIN 1–0 ARS · ARS 2–1 DIN · DIN 2–0 ARS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 22 Aug

DINAMO MINSK

WDLWWW5–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 2–0 · 3–2 · 3–1

ARSENAL

LLDDLL0–2 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–5 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ML Vitebsk	24	+32	53
2	FC Isloch Minsk R.	24	+21	49
3	Dinamo Minsk	23	+24	49
4	Dinamo Brest	25	+16	44
5	Neman	25	+10	43
6	FC Vitebsk	25	+8	40
7	FC Gomel	25	+11	40
8	FC Minsk	25	−1	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	24	−2	30
10	Slavia Mozyr	24	−6	25
11	Baranovichi	25	−18	25
12	Arsenal	24	−18	23
13	Bate Borisov	25	−13	21
14	Belshina	23	−17	21
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	25	−16	19
16	Naftan	24	−31	17