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Dinamo Brest v FC Gomel

Dinamo Brest
2–2Full time
FC Gomel

Premier League · SAT 17 OCT · Regional Sport Complex Brestskiy

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 18:10
Dinamo Brest 2–2 FC Gomel DINAMO BREST WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG
We said Dinamo Brest win46%
The market said44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.842
The market’s Brier score0.769

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay16 notes · 31 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Brest win at 46%.
  2. 4′Little has changed for our model: Dinamo Brest 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–28
  3. 4′KICK-OFF Dinamo Brest v FC Gomel
  4. 8′Timofey Simanenka scores for FC Gomel on 6′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 21–24–55
  5. 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Dinamo Brest 0–1 FC Gomel
  6. 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Dinamo Brest win: 46% at kick-off, 21% now
  7. 8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' FC Gomel win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Dinamo Brest win 21%)
  8. 9′We said Dinamo Brest at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–24–55
  9. 11′12′: Egor Kortsov on the scoresheet for Dinamo Brest. 0–1 · 20–24–56
  10. 16′We said Dinamo Brest at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–57
  11. 16′Little has changed for our model: Dinamo Brest 46% before kick-off, 43% now. 1–1 · 43–29–27
  12. 16′⚽ GOAL · 12' Dinamo Brest 1–1 FC Gomel · Egor Kortsov (assist Roman Yuzepchuk)
  13. 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Dinamo Brest win: 46% at kick-off, 43% now
  14. 16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Dinamo Brest win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was FC Gomel win 27%)
  15. 19′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Timofey Simanenka · FC Gomel
  16. 30′🟨 YELLOW · 27' ivan zenkov · Dinamo Brest
  17. 31′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Denis·Kovalevich · FC Gomel
  18. 33′Denis·Kovalevich scores for FC Gomel on 37′. 1–1 · 40–35–26
  19. 39′We said Dinamo Brest at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–2 · 13–25–62
  20. 39′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 13–25–62
  21. 39′⚽ GOAL · 37' Dinamo Brest 1–2 FC Gomel · Denis·Kovalevich
  22. 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Dinamo Brest win: 46% at kick-off, 13% now
  23. 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' FC Gomel win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Dinamo Brest win 13%)
  24. 45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Brest 1–2 FC Gomel
  25. 45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Denis Levitskiy · Dinamo Brest
  26. 46′Dinamo Brest have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 11–25–65
  27. 48′SECOND HALF Dinamo Brest 1–2 FC Gomel
  28. 49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Kirill Danilin · FC Gomel
  29. 51′We said Dinamo Brest at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–66
  30. 52′8 shots for Dinamo Brest, 2 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 9–24–67
  31. 52′SUBSTITUTION · 53' FC Gomel · On: Damir·Shaikhtdinov · Off: Pavel·Pashevich
  32. 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Dinamo Brest win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
  33. 68′We said Dinamo Brest at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
  34. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dinamo Brest · On: D. Kovalevich · Off: Dusan Bakic
  35. 68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dinamo Brest · On: Zarko Popovic · Off: Denis Grechikho
  36. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Dinamo Brest · On: Vladislav Lyakh · Off: Denis Levitskiy
  37. 70′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Dinamo Brest · On: Lozhkin Vladzislau · Off: ivan zenkov
  38. 78′12 shots for Dinamo Brest, 7 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 1–14–84
  39. 78′77′: Egor Kortsov on the scoresheet for Dinamo Brest. 1–2 · 1–14–84
  40. 79′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 15–75–10
  41. 79′⚽ GOAL · 77' Dinamo Brest 2–2 FC Gomel · Egor Kortsov
  42. 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Dinamo Brest win: 46% at kick-off, 15% now
  43. 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 75% (was FC Gomel win 10%)
  44. 79′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Gomel · On: Aleksei Gavrilovich · Off: Denis·Kovalevich
  45. 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Dinamo Brest win: 46% at kick-off, 5% now
  46. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' FC Gomel · On: Maksim Mardas · Off: Timofey Simanenka
  47. 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' FC Gomel · On: Yevgeni Barsukov · Off: Kirill Danilin
  48. FTFULL TIME Dinamo Brest 2–2 FC Gomel
  49. FTDinamo Brest 2–2 FC Gomel · Dinamo Brest win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Dinamo Brest are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Brest 46%, draw 26%, FC Gomel 28%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.

The AI’s read on Dinamo Brest v FC GomelBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Dinamo Brest win46%
Draw26%
FC Gomel win28%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueRegional Sport Complex Brestskiy

Line-ups

Dinamo Brest

3-5-2

FC Gomel

4-5-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Dinamo Brest

FC Gomel

8Days since last match6

Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
5Dinamo Brest24+1643
6FC Gomel24+1139

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Dinamo Brest

3-5-2

35 I. Malashchitskiy

3 K. Glushchenkov

18 N. Stepanov

11 D. Levitskiy

77 R. Yuzepchuk

99 I. Zenkov

19 D. Grechikho

44 A. Butarevich

36 Guilherme Guedes

24 E. Kortsov

7 D. Bakić

Coach · A. Sednev

Substitutes

21 · A. Nechaev

4 · Ž. Popović

42 · N. Burak

6 · E. Khralenkov

88 · D. Kovalevich

5 · M. Kovel

25 · V. Lozhkin

23 · V. Lyakh

FC Gomel

4-5-1

44 S. Kleshchuk

17 V. Martinkevich

16 I. Zayats

90 G. Kukushkin

14 P. Pashevich

23 K. Danilin

33 V. Sotnikov

77 V. Lazarev

19 D. Silinskiy

21 D. Kovalevich

11 T. Simanenka

Coach · A. Gorovtsov

Substitutes

8 · E. Barsukov

4 · A. Gavrilovich

49 · A. Karatay

13 · M. Mardas

3 · S. Matveychik

43 · D. Shaykhtdinov

66 · Roman Shapovalov

Our number · dinamo brest winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 00:08 · locked at kick-off
46% The market44%
Us46%
Market44%

We make Dinamo Brest a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Dinamo Brest v FC Gomel1.46 – 1.07
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 22 AugW4 D1 L1 · W3 D1 L2
Table places · points 43 v 395 v 6
The market · Dinamo Brest win44% · ours 46%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published
40%45%50% 11 OCT 04:0117 OCT 14:03
Our probability · Dinamo Brest win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Dinamo Brest win46%44%+2
Draw26%29%−3
FC Gomel win28%27%+1
Over 2.5 goals46%45%+1
Both teams to score50%50%0
Over 1.5 goals71%69%+2
Over 3.5 goals25%26%−1
Dinamo Brest or draw72%73%−1
Dinamo Brest clean sheet35%––
FC Gomel clean sheet24%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.0%
0123450 8.1 8.7 4.6 1 11.8 12.0 6.5 2.4 2 8.4 8.8 4.7 3 4.2 4.3 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Dinamo Brest down, FC Gomel across0–5 goals a side shown (99.4% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings
Goals a meeting2.60
Over 2.55 of 10
Both scored6 of 10
Last meetingsFCG 2–1 DIN · FCG 3–0 DIN · DIN 0–1 FCG · FCG 2–1 DIN

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 22 Aug

DINAMO BREST

DLWWWW1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 4–2 · 1–0

FC GOMEL

DWWLWL0–0 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 1–5

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1ML Vitebsk23+3150
2Dinamo Minsk23+2449
3FC Isloch Minsk R.23+1946
4Neman24+1143
5Dinamo Brest24+1643
6FC Gomel24+1139
7FC Vitebsk24+737
8FC Minsk24+134
9Torpedo Zhodino24−230
10Slavia Mozyr24−625
11Baranovichi24−1725
12Arsenal24−1823
13Bate Borisov24−1221
14Belshina23−1721
15Naftan24−3117
16FC Dnepr Mogilev24−1716

The competition's standings before kick-off.