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Dinamo Brest v FC Gomel
Dinamo Brest
FC GomelPremier League · SAT 17 OCT · Regional Sport Complex Brestskiy
The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.
- 0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Brest win at 46%.
- 4′Little has changed for our model: Dinamo Brest 46% before kick-off, 46% now. 0–0 · 46–27–28
- 4′KICK-OFF Dinamo Brest v FC Gomel
- 8′Timofey Simanenka scores for FC Gomel on 6′ — 0–1. 0–1 · 21–24–55
- 8′⚽ GOAL · 8' Dinamo Brest 0–1 FC Gomel
- 8′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 8' Dinamo Brest win: 46% at kick-off, 21% now
- 8′THE CALL SWINGS · 8' FC Gomel win is now our likeliest result at 55% (was Dinamo Brest win 21%)
- 9′We said Dinamo Brest at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 21%. 0–1 · 21–24–55
- 11′12′: Egor Kortsov on the scoresheet for Dinamo Brest. 0–1 · 20–24–56
- 16′We said Dinamo Brest at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 19%. 0–1 · 19–24–57
- 16′Little has changed for our model: Dinamo Brest 46% before kick-off, 43% now. 1–1 · 43–29–27
- 16′⚽ GOAL · 12' Dinamo Brest 1–1 FC Gomel · Egor Kortsov (assist Roman Yuzepchuk)
- 16′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 16' Dinamo Brest win: 46% at kick-off, 43% now
- 16′THE CALL SWINGS · 16' Dinamo Brest win is now our likeliest result at 43% (was FC Gomel win 27%)
- 19′🟨 YELLOW · 20' Timofey Simanenka · FC Gomel
- 30′🟨 YELLOW · 27' ivan zenkov · Dinamo Brest
- 31′🟨 YELLOW · 33' Denis·Kovalevich · FC Gomel
- 33′Denis·Kovalevich scores for FC Gomel on 37′. 1–1 · 40–35–26
- 39′We said Dinamo Brest at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 13%. 1–2 · 13–25–62
- 39′3 goals already, more than the 2.5 we expected for the whole match. 1–2 · 13–25–62
- 39′⚽ GOAL · 37' Dinamo Brest 1–2 FC Gomel · Denis·Kovalevich
- 39′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 39' Dinamo Brest win: 46% at kick-off, 13% now
- 39′THE CALL SWINGS · 39' FC Gomel win is now our likeliest result at 62% (was Dinamo Brest win 13%)
- 45′HALF-TIME Dinamo Brest 1–2 FC Gomel
- 45′🟨 YELLOW · 47' Denis Levitskiy · Dinamo Brest
- 46′Dinamo Brest have had 7 attempts to 1 and it is still 1–2. 1–2 · 11–25–65
- 48′SECOND HALF Dinamo Brest 1–2 FC Gomel
- 49′🟨 YELLOW · 49' Kirill Danilin · FC Gomel
- 51′We said Dinamo Brest at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–24–66
- 52′8 shots for Dinamo Brest, 2 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 9–24–67
- 52′SUBSTITUTION · 53' FC Gomel · On: Damir·Shaikhtdinov · Off: Pavel·Pashevich
- 60′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 60' Dinamo Brest win: 46% at kick-off, 6% now
- 68′We said Dinamo Brest at 46%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–76
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dinamo Brest · On: D. Kovalevich · Off: Dusan Bakic
- 68′SUBSTITUTION · 66' Dinamo Brest · On: Zarko Popovic · Off: Denis Grechikho
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 72' Dinamo Brest · On: Vladislav Lyakh · Off: Denis Levitskiy
- 70′SUBSTITUTION · 73' Dinamo Brest · On: Lozhkin Vladzislau · Off: ivan zenkov
- 78′12 shots for Dinamo Brest, 7 the other way, and they still trail 1–2. 1–2 · 1–14–84
- 78′77′: Egor Kortsov on the scoresheet for Dinamo Brest. 1–2 · 1–14–84
- 79′That is 4, and we only asked for 2.5 across ninety minutes. 2–2 · 15–75–10
- 79′⚽ GOAL · 77' Dinamo Brest 2–2 FC Gomel · Egor Kortsov
- 79′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 79' Dinamo Brest win: 46% at kick-off, 15% now
- 79′THE CALL SWINGS · 79' Draw is now our likeliest result at 75% (was FC Gomel win 10%)
- 79′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Gomel · On: Aleksei Gavrilovich · Off: Denis·Kovalevich
- 89′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 89' Dinamo Brest win: 46% at kick-off, 5% now
- 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' FC Gomel · On: Maksim Mardas · Off: Timofey Simanenka
- 89′SUBSTITUTION · 88' FC Gomel · On: Yevgeni Barsukov · Off: Kirill Danilin
- FTFULL TIME Dinamo Brest 2–2 FC Gomel
- FTDinamo Brest 2–2 FC Gomel · Dinamo Brest win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong
What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.
The match pulse
BEFORE KICK-OFF
Match outcome probability (%)
AI match analysis
PassDinamo Brest are favourites.
The Pitchside prediction: Dinamo Brest 46%, draw 26%, FC Gomel 28%. Over 2.5 goals 46%, both teams to score 50%.
Pre-match prediction
First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
Dinamo Brest win46%
FC Gomel win28%Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 15:00
RoundMatchday 25
VenueRegional Sport Complex Brestskiy
Match timeline
All events
Dinamo BrestMIN
FC GomelEvents will appear when the match starts.
Line-ups
Dinamo Brest
3-5-2
FC Gomel
4-5-1
Rest & schedule
Before kick-off · every competition we cover
Dinamo Brest
FC Gomel
Last match: 9 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)
Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)
Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.
Line-ups
Dinamo Brest
3-5-2
35 I. Malashchitskiy
3 K. Glushchenkov
18 N. Stepanov
11 D. Levitskiy
77 R. Yuzepchuk
99 I. Zenkov
19 D. Grechikho
44 A. Butarevich
36 Guilherme Guedes
24 E. Kortsov
7 D. Bakić
Coach · A. Sednev
Substitutes
21 · A. Nechaev
4 · Ž. Popović
42 · N. Burak
6 · E. Khralenkov
88 · D. Kovalevich
5 · M. Kovel
25 · V. Lozhkin
23 · V. Lyakh
FC Gomel
4-5-1
44 S. Kleshchuk
17 V. Martinkevich
16 I. Zayats
90 G. Kukushkin
14 P. Pashevich
23 K. Danilin
33 V. Sotnikov
77 V. Lazarev
19 D. Silinskiy
21 D. Kovalevich
11 T. Simanenka
Coach · A. Gorovtsov
Substitutes
8 · E. Barsukov
4 · A. Gavrilovich
49 · A. Karatay
13 · M. Mardas
3 · S. Matveychik
43 · D. Shaykhtdinov
66 · Roman Shapovalov
Match statistics
Match statistics aren’t available yet.
Line-ups
Dinamo Brest
3-5-2
35 I. Malashchitskiy
3 K. Glushchenkov
18 N. Stepanov
11 D. Levitskiy
77 R. Yuzepchuk
99 I. Zenkov
19 D. Grechikho
44 A. Butarevich
36 Guilherme Guedes
24 E. Kortsov
7 D. Bakić
Coach · A. Sednev
Substitutes
21 · A. Nechaev
4 · Ž. Popović
42 · N. Burak
6 · E. Khralenkov
88 · D. Kovalevich
5 · M. Kovel
25 · V. Lozhkin
23 · V. Lyakh
FC Gomel
4-5-1
44 S. Kleshchuk
17 V. Martinkevich
16 I. Zayats
90 G. Kukushkin
14 P. Pashevich
23 K. Danilin
33 V. Sotnikov
77 V. Lazarev
19 D. Silinskiy
21 D. Kovalevich
11 T. Simanenka
Coach · A. Gorovtsov
Substitutes
8 · E. Barsukov
4 · A. Gavrilovich
49 · A. Karatay
13 · M. Mardas
3 · S. Matveychik
43 · D. Shaykhtdinov
66 · Roman Shapovalov
We make Dinamo Brest a 46% chance to win. The market has them at 44%. We are within 2 points of the market. The model expects 1.5–1.1.
What the number rests on
Our modelBuilt from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.
Published at 44%, 46% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 44% now.
| Market | Us | Market | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dinamo Brest win | 46% | 44% | +2 |
| Draw | 26% | 29% | −3 |
| FC Gomel win | 28% | 27% | +1 |
| Over 2.5 goals | 46% | 45% | +1 |
| Both teams to score | 50% | 50% | 0 |
| Over 1.5 goals | 71% | 69% | +2 |
| Over 3.5 goals | 25% | 26% | −1 |
| Dinamo Brest or draw | 72% | 73% | −1 |
| Dinamo Brest clean sheet | 35% | – | – |
| FC Gomel clean sheet | 24% | – | – |
Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 3 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.
This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.
Head to head
Last 10 meetingsEvery competition we cover, the latest meeting first.
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 22 Aug
DINAMO BREST
FC GOMEL
The table
2026| # | TEAM | P | GD | PTS |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ML Vitebsk | 23 | +31 | 50 |
| 2 | Dinamo Minsk | 23 | +24 | 49 |
| 3 | FC Isloch Minsk R. | 23 | +19 | 46 |
| 4 | Neman | 24 | +11 | 43 |
| 5 | Dinamo Brest | 24 | +16 | 43 |
| 6 | FC Gomel | 24 | +11 | 39 |
| 7 | FC Vitebsk | 24 | +7 | 37 |
| 8 | FC Minsk | 24 | +1 | 34 |
| 9 | Torpedo Zhodino | 24 | −2 | 30 |
| 10 | Slavia Mozyr | 24 | −6 | 25 |
| 11 | Baranovichi | 24 | −17 | 25 |
| 12 | Arsenal | 24 | −18 | 23 |
| 13 | Bate Borisov | 24 | −12 | 21 |
| 14 | Belshina | 23 | −17 | 21 |
| 15 | Naftan | 24 | −31 | 17 |
| 16 | FC Dnepr Mogilev | 24 | −17 | 16 |
The competition's standings before kick-off.
ML Vitebsk
Dinamo Minsk
FC Isloch Minsk R.
Neman
FC Vitebsk
FC Minsk
Torpedo Zhodino
Slavia Mozyr
Baranovichi
Arsenal
Bate Borisov
Belshina
Naftan
FC Dnepr Mogilev