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Bate Borisov v Slavia Mozyr

Bate Borisov

2–1Full time

Slavia Mozyr

Premier League · SAT 10 OCT · Borisov Arena

Full timeGraded 10 Oct 17:33

Bate Borisov 2–1 Slavia Mozyr SLAVIA MOZYR WIN · WRONGUNDER 2.5 · WRONGNOT BOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Slavia Mozyr win~~36%

~~The market said~~36%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.619

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.668

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay2 notes · 30 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Slavia Mozyr win at 36%.
4′Much as we predicted: Bate Borisov was 36% before kick-off and our model makes it 35% now. 0–0 · 35–29–35
4′KICK-OFF Bate Borisov v Slavia Mozyr
21′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Slavia Mozyr
32′⚽ GOAL · 27' Bate Borisov 0–0 Slavia Mozyr · egor kress (assist erick puerto)
33′⚽ GOAL · 33' Bate Borisov 1–0 Slavia Mozyr · egor kress
35′⚽ GOAL · 36' Bate Borisov 1–0 Slavia Mozyr · Vladislav Varaksa
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Bate Borisov 2–0 Slavia Mozyr · Vladislav Varaksa
41′SUBSTITUTION · 42' Slavia Mozyr · On: Pavel·Chikida · Off: Dimitri Yashin Corrected
41′SUBSTITUTION · 42' Slavia Mozyr · On: Denis·Fedorenko · Off: Ricky Stephane Ngatchou Kamtchouang Corrected
44′Bate Borisov ahead on 36′ through Vladislav Varaksa. 2–0. 2–0 · 93–6–1
44′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 44' Slavia Mozyr win: 36% at kick-off, 1% now
45′HALF-TIME Bate Borisov 2–0 Slavia Mozyr
49′SECOND HALF Bate Borisov 2–0 Slavia Mozyr
51′⚽ GOAL · 50' Bate Borisov 2–0 Slavia Mozyr · Denis·Fedorenko
51′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Denis·Fedorenko · Slavia Mozyr
55′⚽ GOAL · 55' Bate Borisov 2–1 Slavia Mozyr · Denis·Fedorenko
64′🟨 YELLOW · 19' Ilya Rashchenya · Slavia Mozyr
64′⚽ GOAL · 27' Bate Borisov 2–1 Slavia Mozyr · egor kress (assist erick puerto)
64′⚽ GOAL · 36' Bate Borisov 2–1 Slavia Mozyr · Vladislav Varaksa (assist Yuriy Kovalev)
64′SUBSTITUTION · 42' Slavia Mozyr · On: Pavel·Chikida · Off: Dimitri Yashin Corrected
64′SUBSTITUTION · 42' Slavia Mozyr · On: Denis·Fedorenko · Off: Ricky Stephane Ngatchou Kamtchouang Corrected
64′⚽ GOAL · 50' Bate Borisov 2–1 Slavia Mozyr · Denis·Fedorenko
64′🟨 YELLOW · 50' Denis·Fedorenko · Slavia Mozyr
67′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Slavia Mozyr · On: Nikita Romanov · Off: Terentiy Lutsevich Corrected
67′SUBSTITUTION · 70' Slavia Mozyr · On: Aleksandr Derzhinskiy · Off: Evgeni Shevchenko Corrected
83′SUBSTITUTION · 83' Bate Borisov · On: yaroslav khramtsevich · Off: Yuriy Kovalev Corrected
87′🟨 YELLOW · 87' Yuli Kuznetsov · Slavia Mozyr
90′SUBSTITUTION · 92' Slavia Mozyr · On: Vitaliy·Likhtin · Off: Aleksandr Dzhigero Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 93' Ivan Bionchik · Slavia Mozyr
90′🟨 YELLOW · 94' Vitaliy·Likhtin · Slavia Mozyr
90′SUBSTITUTION · 94' Bate Borisov · On: Egor Rusakov · Off: erick puerto Corrected
FTFULL TIME Bate Borisov 2–1 Slavia Mozyr
FTBate Borisov 2–1 Slavia Mozyr · Slavia Mozyr win: wrong · Under 2.5: wrong · Not both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Bate Borisov win36%

Draw28%

Slavia Mozyr win36%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

SAT 10 OCT · 15:00

Venue · Borisov Arena

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Bate Borisov

3-4-3

35 A. Skopets

88 P. Dubovskiy

6 H. Moussakhanian

28 I. Mikhnyuk

23 N. Bochko

52 E. Kress

7 V. Angban

25 N. Neskoromnyi

17 Y. Kovalev

37 E. Puerto

26 V. Varaksa

Coach · Vitali Rogozhkin

Substitutes

16 · D. Sokol

5 · M. Sakuta

42 · A. Zhurin

30 · T. Gagloev

13 · Y. Khramtsevich

18 · P. Kolosovskiy

10 · E. Rusakov

47 · A. Sakhonchik

21 · M. Titov

Slavia Mozyr

4-4-2

16 E. Abramovich

88 D. Yashin

18 N. Melnikov

4 I. Rashchenya

3 R. Ngatchou

49 A. Dzhigero

6 Y. Kuznetsov

21 E. Shevchenko

11 A. Antilevskiy

44 T. Lutsevich

17 K. Chernook

Coach · Ivan Bionchik

Substitutes

27 · P. Chikida

2 · A. Shemruk

9 · O. Batyshchev

19 · A. Derzhinskiy

14 · D. Fedorenko

30 · V. Likhtin

7 · N. Romanov

20 · I. Verenich

23 · V. Ignatiev

13 · N. Zelimov

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Bate Borisov

3-4-3

35 A. Skopets

88 P. Dubovskiy

6 H. Moussakhanian

28 I. Mikhnyuk

23 N. Bochko

52 E. Kress

7 V. Angban

25 N. Neskoromnyi

17 Y. Kovalev

37 E. Puerto

26 V. Varaksa

Coach · Vitali Rogozhkin

Substitutes

16 · D. Sokol

5 · M. Sakuta

42 · A. Zhurin

30 · T. Gagloev

13 · Y. Khramtsevich

18 · P. Kolosovskiy

10 · E. Rusakov

47 · A. Sakhonchik

21 · M. Titov

Slavia Mozyr

4-4-2

16 E. Abramovich

88 D. Yashin

18 N. Melnikov

4 I. Rashchenya

3 R. Ngatchou

49 A. Dzhigero

6 Y. Kuznetsov

21 E. Shevchenko

11 A. Antilevskiy

44 T. Lutsevich

17 K. Chernook

Coach · Ivan Bionchik

Substitutes

27 · P. Chikida

2 · A. Shemruk

9 · O. Batyshchev

19 · A. Derzhinskiy

14 · D. Fedorenko

30 · V. Likhtin

7 · N. Romanov

20 · I. Verenich

23 · V. Ignatiev

13 · N. Zelimov

Our number · slavia mozyr winPublished 10 Oct 15:19

36% The market36%

Us36%

~~Market~~36%

We make Slavia Mozyr a 36% chance to win. The market has them at 36%. We are within 0 points of the market. The model expects 1.1–1.1.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · slavia mozyr win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 39% to 36% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bate Borisov win	36%	33%	+3
Draw	28%	31%	−3
Slavia Mozyr win	36%	36%	0
Over 2.5 goals	40%	42%	−2
Both teams to score	45%	50%	−4
Over 1.5 goals	66%	67%	−1
Over 3.5 goals	20%	23%	−3
Bate Borisov or draw	64%	64%	0
Bate Borisov clean sheet	32%	–	–
Slavia Mozyr clean sheet	33%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 4 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.8%

0123450 10.4 11.9 6.7 2.6 1 11.8 12.8 7.4 2.9 2 6.6 7.4 4.2 3 2.6 2.9 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bate Borisov down, Slavia Mozyr across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number7 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,346 Premier League matches up to 10 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 43.9% of games this season, across 180 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.73 goals a meeting; 5 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bate Borisov at home: 1.33 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Slavia Mozyr away: 1.00 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.14 goals for Bate Borisov, 1.14 for Slavia Mozyr. Most likely score 1–1.

Line-ups

Confirmed 10 Oct 14:34. The model does not read them yet, so they did not move this number.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.73

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 11

~~Both scored~~6 of 11

~~Last meetings~~SLA 1–1 BAT · BAT 1–1 SLA · SLA 1–1 BAT · SLA 2–3 BAT

Form · last six in Premier League

BATE BORISOV

DWLLDL0–0 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–2

SLAVIA MOZYR

WDLWLL3–1 · 0–0 · 0–1 · 3–0 · 0–1 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Isloch Minsk R.	22	+19	45
2	ML Vitebsk	21	+25	44
3	Dinamo Minsk	21	+21	43
4	Dinamo Brest	24	+16	43
5	FC Gomel	23	+15	39
6	Neman	22	+6	37
7	FC Vitebsk	23	+7	36
8	FC Minsk	23	+2	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	22	−1	27
10	Slavia Mozyr	22	−3	25
11	Baranovichi	23	−14	25
12	Arsenal	24	−18	23
13	Belshina	22	−14	21
14	Bate Borisov	22	−11	18
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	23	−16	16
16	Naftan	23	−34	14