Bate Borisov v Neman prediction · Premier League

Full timeGraded 14 Oct 19:45

Bate Borisov 0–2 Neman NEMAN WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Neman win~~43%

~~The market said~~48%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.496

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.414

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay10 notes · 24 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Neman win at 43%.
2′Little has changed for our model: Neman 43% before kick-off, 42% now. 0–0 · 29–29–42
2′KICK-OFF Bate Borisov v Neman
8′8′ and it is 0–0: Neman have scored. 0–0 · 28–31–41
11′We said Neman at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 72%. 0–1 · 9–19–72
11′⚽ GOAL · 8' Bate Borisov 0–1 Neman · Danu Spătaru (assist Pavel Savitskiy)
11′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 11' Neman win: 43% at kick-off, 72% now
17′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 17' Neman win: 43% at kick-off, 73% now
29′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Sherif Jimoh · Neman
30′The goal count is tracking the 2.2 we expected. 0–1 · 7–19–74
34′We said Neman at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 75%. 0–1 · 6–19–75
34′SUBSTITUTION · 33' Neman · On: Andrey Vasiljev · Off: Sherif Jimoh
40′🟨 YELLOW · 37' Mikhail Kozlov · Neman
45′HALF-TIME Bate Borisov 0–1 Neman
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bate Borisov · On: yaroslav khramtsevich · Off: Nikita Neskoromny Corrected
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Neman · On: Andrey Yakimov · Off: Mikhail Kozlov
45′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bate Borisov · On: Egor Rusakov · Off: Victorien Angban
46′SECOND HALF Bate Borisov 0–1 Neman
48′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Bate Borisov · On: yaroslav khramtsevich · Off: Vladislav Varaksa
58′We said Neman at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
62′SUBSTITUTION · 61' Bate Borisov · On: Luka Đorđević · Off: Ivan Mikhniuk
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Neman · On: Andrija Ratkovic · Off: Pavel Savitskiy
64′SUBSTITUTION · 62' Neman · On: Anton Suchkov · Off: Danu Spătaru
65′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 65' Neman win: 43% at kick-off, 83% now
69′We said Neman at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
70′SUBSTITUTION · 68' Bate Borisov · On: Marat Titov · Off: Yuriy Kovalev
70′SUBSTITUTION · 69' Bate Borisov · On: Marat Titov · Off: Yuriy Kovalev
77′Neman ahead on 77′ through Andrija Ratkovic. 0–2. 0–2 · 0–1–99
77′⚽ GOAL · 77' Bate Borisov 0–2 Neman · Danu Spătaru
77′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 77' Neman win: 43% at kick-off, 99% now
78′We said Neman at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 99%. 0–2 · 0–1–99
80′We said Neman at 43% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 100%. 0–2 · 0–0–100
80′SUBSTITUTION · 80' Bate Borisov · On: vladislav yatskevich · Off: erick puerto
86′SUBSTITUTION · 85' Neman · On: Yuri Pavlyukovets · Off: Oleg Evdokimov
FTFULL TIME Bate Borisov 0–2 Neman
FTBate Borisov 0–2 Neman · Neman win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

AI match analysis

Pass

Example · Everton v Chelsea · written before kick-off

Chelsea are slight favourites, but Everton are close behind.

Chelsea are our model’s narrow favourites at 38%, with Everton at 35% and the draw at 27%. Chelsea remain below an even chance: this is a slight lean towards the visitors, not a strong likelihood.

Everton are at home and unbeaten in the 2026/27 Premier League: two wins and four draws from six matches, earning 10 points, scoring eight and conceding five.

The AI’s read on Bate Borisov v NemanBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

Published 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off

Bate Borisov win29%

Draw29%

Neman win43%

Kick-offWED 14 OCT · 17:00

VenueBorisov Arena

Line-ups

Bate Borisov

3-4-3

Neman

4-2-3-1

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · this competition

Bate Borisov

Neman

4Days since last match4

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Based on available results in this competition before kick-off.

League table

2026

Positions of these teams

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
5	Neman	23	9	40
13	Bate Borisov	23	-10	21

Based on available league results; standings may be incomplete.

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Bate Borisov

3-4-3

35 A. Skopets

88 P. Dubovskiy

6 H. Moussakhanian

28 I. Mikhnyuk

23 N. Bochko

52 E. Kress

7 V. Angban

25 N. Neskoromny

17 Y. Kovalev

37 E. Puerto

26 V. Varaksa

Coach · V. Rogozhkin

Substitutes

13 · Y. Khramtsevich

18 · P. Kolosovskiy

10 · E. Rusakov

47 · A. Sakhonchik

5 · M. Sakuta

16 · D. Sokol

21 · M. Titov

24 · V. Yatskevich

42 · A. Zhurin

19 · L. Đorđević

Neman

4-2-3-1

16 N. Matysyuk

55 D. Girs

14 S. Jimoh

20 I. Sadovnichiy

8 Y. Pantea

47 M. Kozlov

10 D. Lisakovich

15 O. Evdokimov

9 S. Pushnyakov

33 D. Spătaru

88 P. Savitskiy

Coach · I. Kovalevich

Substitutes

52 · Maksim Aleksandrov

19 · A. Dayneko

1 · A. Malievskiy

6 · A. Nazarenko

32 · Y. Pavlyukovets

7 · A. Ratković

17 · A. Suchkov

2 · V. Tonkevich

24 · A. Yakimov

4 · A. Vasiljev

Our number · neman winFirst published 14 Oct 09:01 · updated 14 Oct 16:33 · locked at kick-off

43% The market48%

Us43%

~~Market~~48%

We make Neman a 43% chance to win. The market has them at 48%. We are 5 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.2.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Bate Borisov v Neman~~0.95 – 1.23

~~Last six in Premier League~~W2 D1 L3 · W5 D1 L0

~~Table places · points 21 v 40~~13 v 5

~~The market · Neman win~~48% · ours 43%

Built from every result and the chances each side creates and concedes, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · neman win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has not moved either.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Bate Borisov win	29%	24%	+5
Draw	29%	29%	0
Neman win	43%	48%	−5
Over 2.5 goals	37%	45%	−8
Both teams to score	43%	50%	−8
Over 1.5 goals	64%	70%	−7
Over 3.5 goals	18%	26%	−8
Bate Borisov or draw	57%	52%	+5
Bate Borisov clean sheet	30%	–	–
Neman clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 14.0%

0123450 11.5 14.0 8.5 3.5 1 10.9 12.7 7.8 3.3 2 5.2 6.2 3.8 3 2.0 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Bate Borisov down, Neman across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,353 Premier League matches up to 14 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.9% of games this season, across 187 played.

Head to head

11 previous meetings, 2.36 goals a meeting; 5 of 11 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Bate Borisov at home: 1.50 scored, 1.33 conceded a game (last 6). Neman away: 1.17 scored, 1.17 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.95 goals for Bate Borisov, 1.23 for Neman. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

11 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.36

~~Over 2.5~~5 of 11

~~Both scored~~3 of 11

~~Last meetings~~NEM 0–0 BAT · NEM 0–2 BAT · BAT 1–5 NEM · BAT 0–3 NEM

Form · last six in Premier League

BATE BORISOV

WLLDLW2–1 · 0–2 · 0–1 · 2–2 · 0–2 · 2–1

NEMAN

WWDWWW2–0 · 1–0 · 2–2 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 3–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ML Vitebsk	22	29	47
2	FC Isloch Minsk R.	23	19	46
3	Dinamo Minsk	22	22	46
4	Dinamo Brest	24	16	43
5	Neman	23	9	40
6	FC Gomel	24	11	39
7	FC Vitebsk	24	7	37
8	FC Minsk	24	1	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	23	0	30
10	Slavia Mozyr	23	-4	25
11	Baranovichi	24	-17	25
12	Arsenal	24	-18	23
13	Bate Borisov	23	-10	21
14	Belshina	23	-17	21
15	Naftan	24	-31	17
16	FC Dnepr Mogilev	24	-17	16