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Baranovichi v FC Vitebsk

Baranovichi
0–1Full time
FC Vitebsk

Premier League · SAT 17 OCT · Lokomotiv Stadium

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 15:35
Baranovichi 0–1 FC Vitebsk FC VITEBSK WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT
We said FC Vitebsk win44%
Brier score, this match · lower is better0.477

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay9 notes · 23 alerts
  1. 0′Before kick-off: we said FC Vitebsk win at 44%.
  2. 2′Little has changed for our model: FC Vitebsk 44% before kick-off, 43% now. 0–0 · 29–27–43
  3. 2′KICK-OFF Baranovichi v FC Vitebsk
  4. 36′🟨 YELLOW · 34' Baranovichi
  5. 41′THE CALL SWINGS · 41' Draw is now our likeliest result at 40% (was FC Vitebsk win 35%)
  6. 43′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 43' FC Vitebsk win: 44% at kick-off, 34% now
  7. 45′HALF-TIME Baranovichi 0–0 FC Vitebsk
  8. 48′SECOND HALF Baranovichi 0–0 FC Vitebsk
  9. 49′We said FC Vitebsk at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 32%. 0–0 · 23–44–32
  10. 51′Mikhail Bashilov scores for FC Vitebsk on 49′. 0–0 · 23–46–31
  11. 52′We said FC Vitebsk at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 77%. 0–1 · 5–18–77
  12. 52′⚽ GOAL · 49' Baranovichi 0–1 FC Vitebsk · Mikhail Bashilov (assist Yevhen Protasov)
  13. 52′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 52' FC Vitebsk win: 44% at kick-off, 77% now
  14. 52′THE CALL SWINGS · 52' FC Vitebsk win is now our likeliest result at 77% (was Draw 18%)
  15. 53′The goal count is tracking the 2.4 we expected. 0–1 · 4–18–78
  16. 59′We said FC Vitebsk at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 80%. 0–1 · 3–17–80
  17. 61′SUBSTITUTION · 60' Baranovichi · On: Vadim Balbukh · Off: Zakhar Gitselev
  18. 64′SUBSTITUTION · 65' FC Vitebsk · On: vlad anikeev · Off: Roman Minaev
  19. 65′SUBSTITUTION · 65' FC Vitebsk · On: Zakhar Chervyakov · Off: Daniil Pesnyak
  20. 69′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 69' FC Vitebsk win: 44% at kick-off, 84% now
  21. 71′We said FC Vitebsk at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 85%. 0–1 · 2–14–85
  22. 79′We said FC Vitebsk at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 90%. 0–1 · 1–10–90
  23. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FC Vitebsk · On: Marin Zgomba · Off: Artem Gurenko
  24. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 72' FC Vitebsk · On: Sergey Tikhonovskiy · Off: Roman·Lisovsky
  25. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Baranovichi · On: Timofey Tkachev · Off: Vasili Vasilenko
  26. 80′SUBSTITUTION · 79' Baranovichi · On: Alibi Tuzakbayev · Off: Yegor Lapun
  27. 82′SUBSTITUTION · 81' FC Vitebsk · On: Gleb minkevich · Off: Evgeniy Novykh
  28. 84′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 84' FC Vitebsk win: 44% at kick-off, 94% now
  29. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Baranovichi · On: Semen Penchuk · Off: E. Torekul
  30. 84′SUBSTITUTION · 84' Baranovichi · On: Mikhail Bondarenko · Off: Valeriy·Potorocha
  31. 86′We said FC Vitebsk at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 95%. 0–1 · 0–5–95
  32. 90′🟨 YELLOW · 90+1' Artem Bruy · Baranovichi
  33. FTFULL TIME Baranovichi 0–1 FC Vitebsk
  34. FTBaranovichi 0–1 FC Vitebsk · FC Vitebsk win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass
Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Vitebsk are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Baranovichi 29%, draw 27%, FC Vitebsk 44%. Over 2.5 goals 42%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Baranovichi v FC VitebskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Baranovichi win29%
Draw27%
FC Vitebsk win44%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:00

RoundMatchday 25

VenueLokomotiv Stadium

Line-ups

Baranovichi

4-2-3-1

FC Vitebsk

4-4-2

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Baranovichi

FC Vitebsk

7Days since last match6

Last match: 10 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

Last match: 11 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

1Matches in previous 14 days1

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

League table

2026

Positions before kick-off

#TEAMPGDPTS
7FC Vitebsk24+737
11Baranovichi24−1725

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Baranovichi

4-2-3-1

12 D. Shapko

11 N. Ryabykh

19 A. Bruy

33 Kirill Muzychenko

23 V. Vasilenko

9 E. Lapun

88 Z. Gitselev

96 V. Potorocha

10 F. Lebedev

77 M. Artyukh

45 Ersultan Torekul

Coach · –

Substitutes

8 · V. Balbukh

22 · M. Bondarenko

93 · A. Dresmanis

5 · V. Fedotov

4 · V. Karpenya

29 · S. Penchuk

34 · A. Petrenko

7 · T. Pukhov

97 · T. Tkachev

6 · Alibi Tuzakbaev

FC Vitebsk

4-4-2

50 N. Goylo

17 E. Novykh

15 M. Kuntsevich

6 K. Rodionov

22 S. Egorov

11 A. Gurenko

88 E. Frazzoni

30 Mikhail Bashilov

10 Y. Protasov

77 R. Minaev

7 R. Lisovskiy

Coach · S. Gurenko

Substitutes

86 · M. Žgomba

26 · S. Tikhonovskiy

66 · A. Radin

1 · I. Novichkov

67 · G. Minkevich

24 · Ivan Kravchenko

20 · E. Krasnov

14 · Z. Chervyakov

8 · A. Anufriev

18 · V. Anikeev

Our number · fc vitebsk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off
44% The market–
Us44%

We make FC Vitebsk a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.0–1.3, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model
Expected goals · Baranovichi v FC Vitebsk1.04 – 1.34
Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 21 AugW2 D2 L2 · W3 D2 L1
Table places · points 25 v 3711 v 7

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation
MarketUsMarketGap
Baranovichi win29%––
Draw27%––
FC Vitebsk win44%––
Over 2.5 goals42%––
Both teams to score47%––
Over 1.5 goals68%––
Over 3.5 goals22%––
Baranovichi or draw56%––
Baranovichi clean sheet27%––
FC Vitebsk clean sheet36%––

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.6%
0123450 9.5 12.6 8.3 3.8 1 9.9 12.4 8.3 3.7 2 5.1 6.5 4.3 3 2.3 4 5
under 2% 5% 12%+Baranovichi down, FC Vitebsk across0–5 goals a side shown (99.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2021
Goals a meeting3.33
Over 2.52 of 3
Both scored1 of 3
Last meetingsFCV 2–3 BAR · BAR 0–4 FCV · FCV 0–1 BAR

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 21 Aug

BARANOVICHI

DWWDLL1–1 · 1–0 · 2–1 · 0–0 · 0–2 · 0–3

FC VITEBSK

WWLDWD1–0 · 2–0 · 0–3 · 1–1 · 6–0 · 0–0

The table

2026
#TEAMPGDPTS
1ML Vitebsk23+3150
2Dinamo Minsk23+2449
3FC Isloch Minsk R.23+1946
4Neman24+1143
5Dinamo Brest24+1643
6FC Gomel24+1139
7FC Vitebsk24+737
8FC Minsk24+134
9Torpedo Zhodino24−230
10Slavia Mozyr24−625
11Baranovichi24−1725
12Arsenal24−1823
13Bate Borisov24−1221
14Belshina23−1721
15Naftan24−3117
16FC Dnepr Mogilev24−1716

The competition's standings before kick-off.