Arsenal v FC Dnepr Mogilev prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ArsenalDrawFC Dnepr Mogilev

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 10:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Arsenal 42%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Arsenal are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Arsenal 42%, draw 27%, FC Dnepr Mogilev 31%. Over 2.5 goals 43%, both teams to score 47%.

The AI’s read on Arsenal v FC Dnepr MogilevBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 18 Oct 01:23 · locked at kick-off

Arsenal win42%

Draw27%

FC Dnepr Mogilev win31%

Kick-offSUN 25 OCT · 10:00

RoundMatchday 26

VenueDzerzhinsk City Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arsenal

FC Dnepr Mogilev

6Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

Last match: 18 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Arsenal	25	−20	23
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	25	−16	19

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · arsenal winFirst published 18 Oct 01:23 · updated 25 Oct 00:15 · locked at kick-off

42% The market32%

Us42%

~~Market~~32%

We make Arsenal a 42% chance to win. The market has them at 32%. We are 10 points more confident than the market. The model expects 1.3–1.1.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arsenal v FC Dnepr Mogilev~~1.32 – 1.09

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 30 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D2 L3

~~Table places · points 23 v 19~~13 v 15

~~The market · Arsenal win~~32% · ours 42%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Arsenal win The market, margin stripped

Published at 44%, 42% now. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 32% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arsenal win	42%	32%	+10
Draw	27%	29%	−2
FC Dnepr Mogilev win	31%	39%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	43%	47%	−4
Both teams to score	47%	53%	−6
Over 1.5 goals	69%	71%	−2
Over 3.5 goals	22%	28%	−6
Arsenal or draw	69%	61%	+8
Arsenal clean sheet	34%	–	–
FC Dnepr Mogilev clean sheet	27%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.3%

0123450 9.1 10.1 5.3 1 12.2 12.3 6.8 2.5 2 7.8 8.3 4.5 3 3.5 3.7 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arsenal down, FC Dnepr Mogilev across0–5 goals a side shown (99.6% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,369 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 203 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: the last 10 meetings in every competition we cover, 1.40 goals a meeting; 1 of 10 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arsenal at home: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). FC Dnepr Mogilev away: 0.50 scored, 2.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.32 goals for Arsenal, 1.09 for FC Dnepr Mogilev. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

Last 10 meetings

~~Goals a meeting~~1.40

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 10

~~Both scored~~2 of 10

~~Last meetings~~FCD 0–1 ARS · ARS 3–1 FCD · FCD 0–0 ARS · FCD 2–0 ARS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 30 Aug

ARSENAL

LDDLLL2–4 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–5 · 0–1 · 0–2

FC DNEPR MOGILEV

DLDLLW0–0 · 1–2 · 1–1 · 2–4 · 2–3 · 2–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ML Vitebsk	25	+34	56
2	Dinamo Minsk	25	+27	55
3	FC Isloch Minsk R.	25	+27	52
4	Dinamo Brest	25	+16	44
5	Neman	25	+10	43
6	FC Vitebsk	26	+6	40
7	FC Gomel	26	+10	40
8	FC Minsk	26	−3	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	25	−1	33
10	Slavia Mozyr	25	−4	28
11	Baranovichi	26	−16	28
12	Belshina	25	−18	24
13	Arsenal	25	−20	23
14	Bate Borisov	26	−14	21
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	25	−16	19
16	Naftan	26	−38	17