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Arsenal v Dinamo Brest

Arsenal

0–1Full time

Dinamo Brest

Premier League · FRI 9 OCT · Dzerzhinsk City Stadium

Full timeGraded 9 Oct 19:31

Arsenal 0–1 Dinamo Brest DINAMO BREST WIN · RIGHTUNDER 2.5 · RIGHTNOT BOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT0–1 EXACTLY · RIGHT

~~We said Dinamo Brest win~~54%

~~The market said~~62%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.322

~~The market’s Brier score~~0.223

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay0 notes · 13 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Dinamo Brest win at 54%.
73′SUBSTITUTION · 45' Dinamo Brest · On: Egor Khralenkov · Off: Roman Yuzepchuk Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Arsenal · On: Ilya Vasin · Off: Roman Ermolin Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 63' Arsenal · On: ivan oreshkevich · Off: Dzambolat·Tsallagov Corrected
73′SUBSTITUTION · 64' Dinamo Brest · On: Dusan Bakic · Off: D. Kovalevich Corrected
73′🟨 YELLOW · 67' Nikita Stepanov · Dinamo Brest
73′SECOND HALF Arsenal 0–1 Dinamo Brest
84′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Arsenal · On: Egor Bozhko · Off: Maksim·Matveev Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 77' Arsenal · On: Sergey Sazonchik · Off: Daniel Volskiy Corrected
84′SUBSTITUTION · 81' Dinamo Brest · On: Lozhkin Vladzislau · Off: Egor Kortsov Corrected
89′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Arsenal · On: Denis Polyakov · Off: Vladislav Vasilyev Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Dinamo Brest · On: Vladislav Lyakh · Off: Denis Levitskiy Corrected
90′SUBSTITUTION · 89' Dinamo Brest · On: Nikita Burak · Off: Denis Grechikho Corrected
90′🟨 YELLOW · 91' Aleksey Butarevich · Dinamo Brest
FTArsenal 0–1 Dinamo Brest · Dinamo Brest win: right · Under 2.5: right · Not both to score: right · Over 1.5: wrong · Under 3.5: right · 0–1 exactly: right

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle; a marked row was checked against the match’s final record afterwards.

Timeline

Events will appear when the match starts.

Pre-match prediction

Arsenal win22%

Draw24%

Dinamo Brest win54%

Published before kick-off · 9 Oct 06:15

Match information

FRI 9 OCT · 17:00

Venue · Dzerzhinsk City Stadium

The game so far

Recorded statistics

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Players on the pitch

Recorded line-ups

Line-ups

Arsenal

4-2-3-1

30 A. Soroko

71 M. Matveev

46 V. Vasilyev

41 D. Lutik

31 A. Zaleskiy

77 N. Sotnikov

79 K. Badoev

69 R. Ermolin

18 D. Volskiy

11 D. Tsallagov

33 V. Gorbachik

Coach · Igor Voronkov

Substitutes

2 · E. Bozhko

4 · E. Akunets

8 · N. Kaplenko

13 · I. Oreshkevich

23 · D. Polyakov

1 · I. Sanko

10 · S. Sazonchik

26 · V. Tkachenko

16 · A. Vaschenko

9 · I. Vasin

Dinamo Brest

3-5-2

35 I. Malashchitskiy

5 M. Kovel

18 N. Stepanov

36 Guilherme Guedes

77 R. Yuzepchuk

99 I. Zenkov

19 D. Grechikho

44 A. Butarevich

11 D. Levitskiy

88 D. Kovalevich

24 E. Kortsov

Coach · Aleksandr Sednev

Substitutes

21 · A. Nechaev

2 · A. Rylach

4 · Z. Popovic

6 · E. Khralenkov

7 · D. Bakic

23 · V. Lyakh

42 · N. Burak

25 · V. Lozhkin

Match statistics

Match statistics are not available yet.

Line-ups

Arsenal

4-2-3-1

30 A. Soroko

71 M. Matveev

46 V. Vasilyev

41 D. Lutik

31 A. Zaleskiy

77 N. Sotnikov

79 K. Badoev

69 R. Ermolin

18 D. Volskiy

11 D. Tsallagov

33 V. Gorbachik

Coach · Igor Voronkov

Substitutes

2 · E. Bozhko

4 · E. Akunets

8 · N. Kaplenko

13 · I. Oreshkevich

23 · D. Polyakov

1 · I. Sanko

10 · S. Sazonchik

26 · V. Tkachenko

16 · A. Vaschenko

9 · I. Vasin

Dinamo Brest

3-5-2

35 I. Malashchitskiy

5 M. Kovel

18 N. Stepanov

36 Guilherme Guedes

77 R. Yuzepchuk

99 I. Zenkov

19 D. Grechikho

44 A. Butarevich

11 D. Levitskiy

88 D. Kovalevich

24 E. Kortsov

Coach · Aleksandr Sednev

Substitutes

21 · A. Nechaev

2 · A. Rylach

4 · Z. Popovic

6 · E. Khralenkov

7 · D. Bakic

23 · V. Lyakh

42 · N. Burak

25 · V. Lozhkin

Our number · dinamo brest winPublished 9 Oct 17:06

54% The market62%

Us54%

~~Market~~62%

We make Dinamo Brest a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 62%. We are 8 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.0–1.7.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · dinamo brest win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. The market has gone from 61% to 62% in the same time.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arsenal win	22%	16%	+6
Draw	24%	22%	+2
Dinamo Brest win	54%	62%	−8
Over 2.5 goals	49%	49%	−1
Both teams to score	49%	47%	+2
Over 1.5 goals	73%	72%	+1
Over 3.5 goals	27%	28%	0
Arsenal or draw	46%	38%	+8
Arsenal clean sheet	20%	–	–
Dinamo Brest clean sheet	39%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 5 bookmakers, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 12.1%

0123450 7.4 12.1 9.8 5.6 2.5 1 7.2 11.2 9.2 5.1 2.2 2 3.5 5.5 4.5 2.5 3 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arsenal down, Dinamo Brest across

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.1 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,345 Premier League matches up to 9 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 44.1% of games this season, across 179 played.

Head to head

7 previous meetings, 2.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arsenal at home: 0.83 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Dinamo Brest away: 1.67 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

0.97 goals for Arsenal, 1.68 for Dinamo Brest. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. Each step is a figure the model used, in the order it used it.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~DIN 3–0 ARS · DIN 1–1 ARS · ARS 1–1 DIN · DIN 2–1 ARS

Form · last six in Premier League

ARSENAL

LLLDDL1–3 · 0–2 · 2–4 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–5

DINAMO BREST

LDLWWW1–2 · 1–1 · 1–3 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 4–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Isloch Minsk R.	22	+19	45
2	ML Vitebsk	21	+25	44
3	Dinamo Minsk	21	+21	43
4	Dinamo Brest	23	+15	40
5	FC Gomel	23	+15	39
6	Neman	22	+6	37
7	FC Vitebsk	23	+7	36
8	FC Minsk	23	+2	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	22	−1	27
10	Slavia Mozyr	22	−3	25
11	Baranovichi	23	−14	25
12	Arsenal	23	−17	23
13	Belshina	22	−14	21
14	Bate Borisov	22	−11	18
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	23	−16	16
16	Naftan	23	−34	14