Arsenal v Bate Borisov prediction · Premier League

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

ArsenalDrawBate Borisov

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 16:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Bate Borisov 38%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Bate Borisov just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Arsenal 34%, draw 28%, Bate Borisov 38%. Over 2.5 goals 38%, both teams to score 43%.

The AI’s read on Arsenal v Bate BorisovBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Arsenal win34%

Draw28%

Bate Borisov win38%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 16:00

RoundMatchday 27

VenueHaradski Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Arsenal

Bate Borisov

12Days since last match7

Last match: 19 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

Last match: 24 Oct · Premier League (Belarus)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
13	Arsenal	25	−20	23
14	Bate Borisov	26	−14	21

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · bate borisov winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Bate Borisov a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.1–1.1, and 0–1 is the single most likely score at 13%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Arsenal v Bate Borisov~~1.05 – 1.14

~~Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 30 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W1 D1 L4

~~Table places · points 23 v 21~~13 v 14

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Arsenal win	34%	–	–
Draw	28%	–	–
Bate Borisov win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	38%	–	–
Both teams to score	43%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	64%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	18%	–	–
Arsenal or draw	62%	–	–
Arsenal clean sheet	32%	–	–
Bate Borisov clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 0–1 at 13.0%

0123450 11.2 13.0 7.2 2.8 1 12.1 12.8 7.4 2.9 2 6.2 6.9 3.9 3 2.2 2.5 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Arsenal down, Bate Borisov across0–5 goals a side shown (99.8% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,369 Premier League matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: Premier League matches have gone over 2.5 in 45.3% of games this season, across 203 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 7 previous meetings since 2021 in every competition we cover, 2.57 goals a meeting; 3 of 7 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Arsenal at home: 0.67 scored, 2.17 conceded a game (last 6). Bate Borisov away: 0.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.05 goals for Arsenal, 1.14 for Bate Borisov. Most likely score 0–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

7 meetings since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~2.57

~~Over 2.5~~3 of 7

~~Both scored~~3 of 7

~~Last meetings~~BAT 2–3 ARS · BAT 0–0 ARS · ARS 0–1 BAT · BAT 3–2 ARS

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in Premier League this season · since 30 Aug

ARSENAL

LDDLLL2–4 · 1–1 · 0–0 · 1–5 · 0–1 · 0–2

BATE BORISOV

DLWLLL2–2 · 0–2 · 2–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	ML Vitebsk	25	+34	56
2	Dinamo Minsk	25	+27	55
3	FC Isloch Minsk R.	25	+27	52
4	Dinamo Brest	25	+16	44
5	Neman	25	+10	43
6	FC Vitebsk	26	+6	40
7	FC Gomel	26	+10	40
8	FC Minsk	26	−3	34
9	Torpedo Zhodino	25	−1	33
10	Slavia Mozyr	25	−4	28
11	Baranovichi	26	−16	28
12	Belshina	25	−18	24
13	Arsenal	25	−20	23
14	Bate Borisov	26	−14	21
15	FC Dnepr Mogilev	25	−16	19
16	Naftan	26	−38	17