Volna v Minsk II prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 18 Oct 16:43

Volna 1–4 Minsk II VOLNA WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · RIGHTOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · WRONG1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Volna win~~44%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.701

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay17 notes · 19 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said Volna win at 44%.
1′Little has changed for our model: Volna 44% before kick-off, 44% now. 0–0 · 44–24–33
1′KICK-OFF Volna v Minsk II
21′A goal for Volna on 20′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 68–19–13
21′We said Volna at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 68%. 1–0 · 68–19–13
21′⚽ GOAL · 20' Volna 1–0 Minsk II
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES UP · 21' Volna win: 44% at kick-off, 68% now
26′A. Vlasov scores for Volna on 23′ — 1–0. 1–0 · 69–19–12
30′The goal count is tracking the 3.3 we expected. 1–0 · 69–19–12
30′🟨 YELLOW · 29' Minsk II
33′We said Volna at 44% before kick-off; the game as it stands moves that to 70%. 1–0 · 70–19–11
34′Minsk II score on 33′ to make it 1–1. 1–1 · 39–31–30
34′⚽ GOAL · 33' Volna 1–1 Minsk II
34′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 34' Volna win: 44% at kick-off, 39% now
36′Minsk II find the net on 36′. 1–2. 1–2 · 16–23–61
36′We said Volna at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 16%. 1–2 · 16–23–61
36′⚽ GOAL · 36' Volna 1–2 Minsk II
36′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 36' Volna win: 44% at kick-off, 16% now
36′THE CALL SWINGS · 36' Minsk II win is now our likeliest result at 61% (was Volna win 16%)
39′Minsk II ahead on 38′ through S. Matusevich. 1–2. 1–2 · 15–23–62
40′We said Volna at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 14%. 1–2 · 14–23–62
40′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 40' Volna win: 44% at kick-off, 14% now
45′HALF-TIME Volna 1–2 Minsk II
46′SECOND HALF Volna 1–2 Minsk II
56′We said Volna at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 9%. 1–2 · 9–23–68
60′🟨 YELLOW · 60' Minsk II
69′🟨 YELLOW · 68' Minsk II
70′We said Volna at 44%. On the run of the match our model now has it at 4%. 1–2 · 4–20–75
70′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 70' Volna win: 44% at kick-off, 4% now
77′🟨 YELLOW · 77' Volna
79′A goal for Minsk II on 79′ — 1–3. 1–3 · 0–2–98
79′That is 4, and we only asked for 3.3 across ninety minutes. 1–3 · 0–2–98
79′⚽ GOAL · 79' Volna 1–3 Minsk II
84′Minsk II score on 84′ to make it 1–4. 1–4 · 0–0–100
84′5 goals already, more than the 3.3 we expected for the whole match. 1–4 · 0–0–100
84′⚽ GOAL · 84' Volna 1–4 Minsk II
FTFULL TIME Volna 1–4 Minsk II
FTVolna 1–4 Minsk II · Volna win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: right · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: wrong · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Volna are narrow favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Volna 44%, draw 23%, Minsk II 33%. Over 2.5 goals 63%, both teams to score 63%.

The AI’s read on Volna v Minsk IIBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Volna win44%

Draw23%

Minsk II win33%

Kick-offSUN 18 OCT · 14:00

RoundMatchday 29

VenueVolna Stadium

Line-ups

Volna

Minsk II

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Volna

Minsk II

8Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

Last match: 11 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
12	Volna	28	−10	35
13	Minsk II	28	−15	30

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Volna

Formation not confirmed

12 S. Letsko

2 D. Prokopchuk

6 I. Tarabesh

7 A. Radzhabov

8 A. Vlasov

10 M. Grechikha

11 D. Tkachik

17 K. Polkhovskiy

21 A. Susha

33 I. Sedro

91 D. Matyash

Coach · Andrey Prokopyuk

Substitutes

16 · S. Kirikovich

4 · A. Kuradovets

19 · K. Kovalevich

22 · A. Samuylik

25 · K. Kovsh

62 · S. Baluk

77 · E. Nikoporenok

97 · J. Oreshkevich

Minsk II

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Sukharenko

4 P. Sheremet

5 V. Zholudov

7 G. Bulatskiy

8 S. Matusevich

9 I. Bondarenko

13 D. Denisenko

14 V. Ganchuk

17 E. Kindruk

18 D. Morozov

21 A. Kazakov

Coach · –

Substitutes

16 · M. Gerashchenko

3 · D. Gorkovsky

6 · R. Sitnikov

10 · I. Volchok

11 · N. Bulyga

12 · E. Egorov

15 · V. Korotonozhkin

20 · V. Khachaturian

22 · I. Porshnev

Our number · volna winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 03:59 · locked at kick-off

44% The market–

Us44%

We make Volna a 44% chance to win. The model expects 1.8–1.5, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 10%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Volna v Minsk II~~1.76 – 1.49

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 4 Sept~~W1 D1 L4 · W0 D1 L5

~~Table places · points 35 v 30~~12 v 13

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Volna win

Published at 43%, 44% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Volna win	44%	–	–
Draw	23%	–	–
Minsk II win	33%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	63%	–	–
Both teams to score	63%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	83%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	41%	–	–
Volna or draw	67%	–	–
Volna clean sheet	23%	–	–
Minsk II clean sheet	18%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.4%

0123450 4.5 5.6 4.4 2.2 1 6.6 10.4 7.4 3.7 2 6.0 8.7 6.4 3.2 3 3.6 5.1 3.8 4 2.3 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Volna down, Minsk II across0–5 goals a side shown (98.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,492 1. Division matches up to 17 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.5% of games this season, across 255 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2024 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Volna at home: 1.33 scored, 1.83 conceded a game (last 6). Minsk II away: 1.83 scored, 1.83 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.76 goals for Volna, 1.49 for Minsk II. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2024

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~2 of 3

~~Last meetings~~MIN 1–2 VOL · VOL 2–3 MIN · MIN 0–1 VOL

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 4 Sept

VOLNA

WLLLLD2–1 · 0–1 · 1–3 · 0–4 · 0–2 · 1–1

MINSK II

LLDLLL3–4 · 2–3 · 1–1 · 0–2 · 1–2 · 0–2

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Slutsk	29	+30	63
2	Niva	29	+41	61
3	Lida	28	+9	57
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	29	+26	56
5	Slonim	28	+18	50
6	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	28	−1	45
7	Shakhter Soligorsk	29	+10	44
8	Bumprom	29	+8	41
9	Smorgon	29	0	39
10	Ostrovets FC	29	−3	36
11	Dinamo Minsk II	25	+5	35
12	Volna	28	−10	35
13	Minsk II	28	−15	30
14	Uni Minsk	28	−8	29
15	Orsha	29	−25	27
16	Osipovichy	29	−37	23
17	BATE II	28	−26	22
18	Gomel II	28	−22	21