Uni Minsk v Lida prediction · 1. Division

The match pulse

BEFORE KICK-OFF

Match outcome probability (%)

Uni MinskDrawLida

Our pre-match numbers · the line starts at kick-offKick-off 12:00

Before kick-off · Match result · Lida 48%

AI match analysis

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Lida are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Uni Minsk 27%, draw 25%, Lida 48%. Over 2.5 goals 54%, both teams to score 56%.

The AI’s read on Uni Minsk v LidaBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

Uni Minsk win27%

Draw25%

Lida win48%

Kick-offSAT 31 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 31

VenueDinamo-Yuni Stadium

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Uni Minsk

Lida

14Days since last match7

Last match: 17 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

Last match: 24 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Club friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
2	Lida	30	+11	63
15	Uni Minsk	28	−8	29

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Confirmed line-ups aren’t available for this match.

Our number · lida winFirst published 25 Oct 01:45 · locked at kick-off

48% The market–

Us48%

We make Lida a 48% chance to win. The model expects 1.2–1.7, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 11%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Uni Minsk v Lida~~1.19 – 1.67

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W1 D2 L3 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 29 v 63~~15 v 2

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Uni Minsk win	27%	–	–
Draw	25%	–	–
Lida win	48%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	54%	–	–
Both teams to score	56%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	32%	–	–
Uni Minsk or draw	52%	–	–
Uni Minsk clean sheet	20%	–	–
Lida clean sheet	31%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 11.5%

0123450 6.4 9.4 8.0 4.5 1 6.6 11.5 9.2 5.1 2.2 2 4.1 6.6 5.4 3.0 3 2.7 2.2 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Uni Minsk down, Lida across0–5 goals a side shown (99.0% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,501 1. Division matches up to 24 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 62.9% of games this season, across 264 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 3 previous meetings since 2022 in every competition we cover, 2.33 goals a meeting; 2 of 3 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Uni Minsk at home: 1.00 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). Lida away: 1.50 scored, 1.50 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.19 goals for Uni Minsk, 1.67 for Lida. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

3 meetings since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~2.33

~~Over 2.5~~2 of 3

~~Both scored~~1 of 3

~~Last meetings~~LID 0–0 UNI · UNI 0–3 LID · LID 3–1 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept

UNI MINSK

DLLDLW2–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1 · 3–0

LIDA

LWWWWW0–4 · 2–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–0 · 1–0

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Slutsk	30	+32	66
2	Lida	30	+11	63
3	Niva	29	+41	61
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	29	+26	56
5	Slonim	30	+18	53
6	Shakhter Soligorsk	30	+14	47
7	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	29	−2	45
8	Bumprom	30	+6	41
9	Ostrovets FC	30	−1	39
10	Smorgon	30	−4	39
11	Volna	30	−11	38
12	Dinamo Minsk II	27	+1	35
13	Minsk II	30	−16	33
14	Orsha	30	−21	30
15	Uni Minsk	28	−8	29
16	Osipovichy	29	−37	23
17	BATE II	28	−26	22
18	Gomel II	29	−23	21