Uni Minsk v FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 16:26

Uni Minsk 3–0 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk FC ENERGETIK-BGU MINSK WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · RIGHTBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · RIGHTUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win~~54%

~~The market said~~69%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.960

~~The market’s Brier score~~1.295

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

The match replay15 notes · 17 alerts

0′Before kick-off: we said FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win at 54%.
1′Much as we predicted: FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk was 54% before kick-off and our model makes it 54% now. 0–0 · 22–24–54
1′KICK-OFF Uni Minsk v FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
21′Uni Minsk find the net on 21′. 1–0. 1–0 · 50–25–25
21′⚽ GOAL · 21' Uni Minsk 1–0 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
21′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 21' FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win: 54% at kick-off, 25% now
21′THE CALL SWINGS · 21' Uni Minsk win is now our likeliest result at 50% (was FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win 25%)
22′We said FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 25%. 1–0 · 50–25–25
23′We said FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 24%. 1–0 · 50–25–24
23′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 23' FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win: 54% at kick-off, 24% now
26′Uni Minsk ahead on 23′ through V. Popov. 1–0. 1–0 · 51–26–23
27′🟨 YELLOW · 27' FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
30′Goals are coming at about the 2.9 we expected. 1–0 · 52–26–22
33′A goal for Uni Minsk on 32′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 79–14–7
33′We said FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 7%. 2–0 · 79–14–7
33′⚽ GOAL · 32' Uni Minsk 2–0 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
33′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 33' FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win: 54% at kick-off, 7% now
35′D. Lapin scores for Uni Minsk on 34′ — 2–0. 2–0 · 80–13–7
45′We said FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at 4%. 2–0 · 84–11–4
45′🟨 YELLOW · 44' Uni Minsk
45′OUR NUMBER MOVES DOWN · 45' FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win: 54% at kick-off, 4% now
45′HALF-TIME Uni Minsk 2–0 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
46′SUBSTITUTION · 42' FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk · On: A. Medvedev · Off: F. Fedorovich
46′SUBSTITUTION · 42' FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk · On: K. Parmonov · Off: F. Egiptsev
46′SUBSTITUTION · 42' FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk · On: A. Konyakhin · Off: M. Yaskevich
46′SECOND HALF Uni Minsk 2–0 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
74′Uni Minsk score on 74′ to make it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
74′⚽ GOAL · 74' Uni Minsk 3–0 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
75′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
80′74′: N. Mirskiy on the scoresheet for Uni Minsk, making it 3–0. 3–0 · 100–0–0
81′We said FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk at 54%. It is not going that way — our model now has it at under 1%. 3–0 · 100–0–0
81′That is 3, and we only asked for 2.9 across ninety minutes. 3–0 · 100–0–0
FTFULL TIME Uni Minsk 3–0 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk
FTUni Minsk 3–0 FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk · FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win: wrong · Over 2.5: right · Both to score: wrong · Over 1.5: right · Under 3.5: right · 1–1 exactly: wrong

What our live read said during the match, as it was said, with the score and our numbers for home–draw–away at that moment; and every alert we raised, with the minute. Nothing is written after the final whistle.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk are favourites.

The Pitchside prediction: Uni Minsk 22%, draw 24%, FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk 54%. Over 2.5 goals 55%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Uni Minsk v FC Energetik-Bgu MinskBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Uni Minsk win22%

Draw24%

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win54%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 13:30

RoundMatchday 29

VenueDinamo-Yuni Stadium

Line-ups

Uni Minsk

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Uni Minsk

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

7Days since last match7

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

1Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	28	+29	56
15	Uni Minsk	27	−11	26

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Uni Minsk

Formation not confirmed

13 K. Pankratov

9 B. Gusev

11 V. Popov

14 R. Yamlikhanov

29 V. Kiselev

32 V. Urbanovich

33 D. Lapin

39 O. Patotskiy

69 E. Snapkov

95 I. Vorobyov

98 M. Svidinskiy

Coach · –

Substitutes

1 · R. Babaev

5 · P. Vakulich

7 · D. Narchuk

8 · E. Sakuta

10 · E. Semenov

19 · N. Mirskiy

21 · I. Amialiusik

30 · D. Khalimonchikov

42 · M. Volodko

91 · E. Radkov

FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk

Formation not confirmed

1 D. Seledtsov

3 F. Fedorovich

4 D. Royko

6 V. Prigodich

9 M. Korytko

10 D. Chul

18 F. Egiptsev

22 A. Guz

23 M. Yaskevich

80 N. Knyshev

98 A. Slivin

Coach · Aleksey Merkulov

Substitutes

19 · V. Kazlovskiy

5 · A. Medvedev

8 · E. Lukashenko

11 · A. Zhlobich

16 · A. Yunusov

17 · A. Kartoev

20 · A. Kholyusev

21 · A. Konyakhin

26 · T. Kontsovoy

77 · K. Parmonov

Our number · fc energetik-bgu minsk winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

54% The market69%

Us54%

~~Market~~69%

We make FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk a 54% chance to win. The market has them at 69%. We are 15 points less confident than the market. The model expects 1.1–1.8.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Uni Minsk v FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk~~1.07 – 1.83

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 29 Aug~~W0 D2 L4 · W5 D0 L1

~~Table places · points 26 v 56~~15 v 4

~~The market · FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win~~69% · ours 54%

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win The market, margin stripped

Our number has not moved since we published. No bookmaker had priced it when we published; the market has it at 69% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Uni Minsk win	22%	12%	+10
Draw	24%	19%	+5
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk win	54%	69%	−15
Over 2.5 goals	55%	57%	−2
Both teams to score	54%	49%	+5
Over 1.5 goals	78%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	33%	35%	−2
Uni Minsk or draw	46%	31%	+15
Uni Minsk clean sheet	17%	–	–
FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk clean sheet	35%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. The market is the median of 1 bookmaker, each with its margin stripped — what we are measured against, never an input to the model.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 10.9%

0123450 6.2 9.8 9.2 5.6 2.6 1 5.7 10.9 9.5 5.8 2.7 2 3.2 5.7 5.1 3.1 3 2.1 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Uni Minsk down, FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk across0–5 goals a side shown (98.5% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,487 1. Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 250 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2022 in every competition we cover, 4.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Uni Minsk at home: 0.83 scored, 0.83 conceded a game (last 6). FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk away: 1.50 scored, 1.00 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.07 goals for Uni Minsk, 1.83 for FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2022

~~Goals a meeting~~4.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~0 of 1

~~Last meetings~~FCE 4–0 UNI

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 29 Aug

UNI MINSK

LDLLDL0–1 · 2–2 · 1–3 · 0–1 · 1–1 · 0–1

FC ENERGETIK-BGU MINSK

WLWWWW2–1 · 0–2 · 3–1 · 5–1 · 3–0 · 5–1

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Slutsk	29	+30	63
2	Niva	28	+39	58
3	Lida	28	+9	57
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	28	+29	56
5	Slonim	28	+18	50
6	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	27	+1	45
7	Shakhter Soligorsk	28	+10	43
8	Bumprom	28	+9	41
9	Smorgon	28	−1	36
10	Dinamo Minsk II	25	+5	35
11	Ostrovets FC	28	−3	35
12	Volna	28	−10	35
13	Minsk II	28	−15	30
14	Orsha	28	−24	27
15	Uni Minsk	27	−11	26
16	BATE II	28	−26	22
17	Gomel II	28	−22	21
18	Osipovichy	28	−38	20