Smorgon v Bumprom prediction · 1. Division

Full timeGraded 17 Oct 14:49

Smorgon 1–0 Bumprom BUMPROM WIN · WRONGOVER 2.5 · WRONGBOTH TO SCORE · WRONGOVER 1.5 · WRONGUNDER 3.5 · RIGHT1–1 EXACTLY · WRONG

~~We said Bumprom win~~38%

~~Brier score, this match · lower is better~~0.626

The prediction on this page is exactly as published before kick-off. Match events and statistics come from the match and are corrected when the official figures change. Wrong calls are shown exactly like right ones.

AI match analysis

Pass

Pitchside prediction · before kick-off

Close to call, with Bumprom just ahead.

The Pitchside prediction: Smorgon 36%, draw 27%, Bumprom 38%. Over 2.5 goals 50%, both teams to score 54%.

The AI’s read on Smorgon v BumpromBefore, during and after the match · From £5.99 + VAT · paid once, never renewsSee the passes

Pre-match prediction

First published 11 Oct 03:54 · locked at kick-off

Smorgon win36%

Draw27%

Bumprom win38%

Kick-offSAT 17 OCT · 12:00

RoundMatchday 29

VenueYunost Stadium

Line-ups

Smorgon

Bumprom

Rest & schedule

Before kick-off · every competition we cover

Smorgon

Bumprom

6Days since last match7

Last match: 11 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

Last match: 10 Oct · 1. Division (Belarus)

2Matches in previous 14 days2

Counted across every competition we cover, before kick-off. Friendlies are not counted.

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
8	Bumprom	28	+9	41
9	Smorgon	28	−1	36

Match statistics

Match statistics aren’t available yet.

Line-ups

Smorgon

Formation not confirmed

1 M. Azarko

99 G. Malashenko

77 I. Bogdanovich

52 E. Mychelkin

47 R. Kukhley

33 A. Poznyak

25 Y. Yarotskiy

17 M. Dukso

7 J. Nsangou

3 M. Autko

2 C. Intsoen

Coach · Sergey Dorokhovich

Substitutes

16 · D. Perov

19 · A. Velesyuk

11 · I. Sivkov

22 · V. Galko

23 · A. Stankevich

27 · A. Tishko

59 · V. Kabachevskiy

Bumprom

Formation not confirmed

16 V. Yarukov

91 A. Miroevskiy

66 S. Absamadov

59 A. Zhevnerenko

47 A. Kabyshev

21 N. Ovsyanik

11 V. Dubrovskiy

9 K. Sidorenko

8 I. Zhestkin

5 D. Kaplunov

4 S. Kruzhilin

Coach · –

Substitutes

93 · E. Isachenko

2 · G. Kutkovich

10 · V. Drapeza

20 · M. Kazimir

29 · M. Samotoy

77 · D. Latykhov

95 · M. Tychko

Our number · bumprom winFirst published 11 Oct 03:54 · updated 12 Oct 03:59 · locked at kick-off

38% The market–

Us38%

We make Bumprom a 38% chance to win. The model expects 1.3–1.4, and 1–1 is the single most likely score at 12%. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

What the number rests on

Our model

~~Expected goals · Smorgon v Bumprom~~1.31 – 1.36

~~Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept~~W4 D1 L1 · W2 D1 L3

~~Table places · points 36 v 41~~9 v 8

Built from every result, recent matches counting most, with home advantage in it. Line-ups, injuries and rest are not in the number.

How the number movedSince we published

Our probability · Bumprom win

Published at 39%, 38% now.

Every market, from one calculation

Market	Us	Market	Gap
Smorgon win	36%	–	–
Draw	27%	–	–
Bumprom win	38%	–	–
Over 2.5 goals	50%	–	–
Both teams to score	54%	–	–
Over 1.5 goals	74%	–	–
Over 3.5 goals	28%	–	–
Smorgon or draw	62%	–	–
Smorgon clean sheet	26%	–	–
Bumprom clean sheet	28%	–	–

Every figure here is read off one scoreline distribution, so no two can contradict each other. No bookmaker has priced this match yet.

Every scorelineMost likely 1–1 at 12.5%

0123450 7.7 9.1 6.4 2.9 1 8.8 12.5 8.1 3.7 2 6.0 7.8 5.3 2.4 3 2.7 3.5 2.4 4 5

under 2% 5% 12%+Smorgon down, Bumprom across0–5 goals a side shown (99.3% of outcomes)

This is a probability, not a recommendation. We take no bets and hold no affiliate relationships with any gambling operator. Model 1.2 — Pitchside Lab's own model.

How we got to this number6 steps · in order

Our model

Rates each side's attack and defence from 1,487 1. Division matches up to 16 Oct 2026, weighting recent results more and allowing for home advantage.

Base rates

Context, not used by the model: 1. Division matches have gone over 2.5 in 63.6% of games this season, across 250 played.

Head to head

Context, not used by the model: 1 previous meeting since 2021 in every competition we cover, 3.00 goals a meeting; 1 of 1 went over 2.5.

Home and away form

Smorgon at home: 1.33 scored, 0.33 conceded a game (last 6). Bumprom away: 1.83 scored, 2.67 conceded (last 6).

What the model expects

1.31 goals for Smorgon, 1.36 for Bumprom. Most likely score 1–1.

Not in these numbers yet

Line-ups, injuries and suspensions, and rest days are being measured in a test version of our model; they do not change these numbers. Weather and the referee are shown on the match page but not used.

Nothing here is written by hand. The model works from every result, as the first step says; the base rates, the head to head and the home and away form are context beside it, not inputs.

Head to head

1 meeting since 2021

~~Goals a meeting~~3.00

~~Over 2.5~~1 of 1

~~Both scored~~1 of 1

~~Last meetings~~BUM 2–1 SMO

Every competition we cover, the latest meeting first.

Form · last six in 1. Division this season · since 5 Sept

SMORGON

DWWLWW1–1 · 2–0 · 1–0 · 1–2 · 2–0 · 2–0

BUMPROM

LLWDWL1–2 · 1–2 · 4–0 · 3–3 · 2–1 · 1–3

The table

2026

#	TEAM	P	GD	PTS
1	FC Slutsk	29	+30	63
2	Niva	28	+39	58
3	Lida	28	+9	57
4	FC Energetik-Bgu Minsk	28	+29	56
5	Slonim	28	+18	50
6	Molodechno-DYuSSh 4	27	+1	45
7	Shakhter Soligorsk	28	+10	43
8	Bumprom	28	+9	41
9	Smorgon	28	−1	36
10	Dinamo Minsk II	25	+5	35
11	Ostrovets FC	28	−3	35
12	Volna	28	−10	35
13	Minsk II	28	−15	30
14	Orsha	28	−24	27
15	Uni Minsk	27	−11	26
16	BATE II	28	−26	22
17	Gomel II	28	−22	21
18	Osipovichy	28	−38	20